‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: December 6, 2016  |  Next Release Date: January 10, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Glossary › FAQS ›

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.9 million b/d in 2016 and 8.8 million b/d in 2017.
  • EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $43 per barrel (b) in 2016 and $52/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook. The NYMEX contract values for March 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 1 suggest that a range from $34/b to $71/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in March 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • Lower crude oil prices contributed to U.S. average retail regular gasoline prices in November averaging $2.18 per gallon (gal), a decline of 7 cents/gal from the October level. EIA expects gasoline prices to fall to an average of $2.10/gal in January. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.14/gal in 2016 and $2.30/gal in 2017.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 93.17 48.67 43.07 50.66
Brent Spot Average 98.89 52.32 43.46 51.66
Imported Average 89.63 46.34 38.86 47.20
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 92.05 48.40 40.92 49.70
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 3.36 2.43 2.14 2.30
Diesel Fuel 3.83 2.71 2.31 2.70
Heating Oil 3.71 2.65 2.12 2.62
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 8.76 9.42 8.86 8.78
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.01 3.34 3.48 3.78
Fuel Ethanol 0.93 0.97 0.99 1.00
Biodiesel 0.083 0.082 0.099 0.104
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 8.92 9.18 9.31 9.37
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.04 4.00 3.88 3.94
Jet Fuel 1.47 1.55 1.61 1.60
Total Consumption 19.11 19.53 19.66 19.90
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.2
Heating Degree Days 1.9 -10.2 -5.6 6.5
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.1

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Custom Table Builder ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

In beta testing:

STEO Data browser ›

Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data PDF
Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price XLSX PNG
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices XLSX PNG
U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices XLSX PNG
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production XLSX PNG
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. Liquid Fuels Product Supplied XLSX PNG
U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth XLSX PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days XLSX PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions XLSX PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index XLSX PNG
U.S. Disposable Income XLSX PNG
Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
This Week in Petroleum Weekly
2016-2017 Winter Fuels Outlook Oct-2016 PDF
2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2016 PDF
2015-2016 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow Oct-2015 PDF
2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow Apr-2015 PDF
2014-2015 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow Oct-2014 PDF
2014 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages Jun-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
STEO Notice: Suspension of Regional Residential Heating Oil and Propane Price Forecast Jun-2011 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF

About the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Previous STEO Forecasts:

Other EIA Forecasts: