NAVAL METEOROLOGY & OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND, STENNIS SPACE CENTER, Ms. – Every week the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) tracks pirate activity worldwide and tells the rest of the world about it.
Pirate activity is posted on the, ONI public-wide site in two products called the Piracy Analysis Warning Weekly (PAWW) and the Worldwide Threat to Shipping (WTS). ONI has been publishing the WTS for about 25 years. The Piracy Analysis Warning Weekly started appearing six or seven years ago when Somali piracy became a major concern in the Horn of Africa.
The website also includes advisories when needed. In the past, ONI has issued advisories to the maritime community on potential pirate activity in specific areas and on new pirate tactics.
“The WTS product provides info on piracy threats to and criminal action against, merchant vessels worldwide in the last 30 days. This report is produced primarily to inform merchant mariners and naval forces,” according to the website.
The WTS includes a compilation of pirate and illegal activities worldwide and the actions that navies and law enforcement agencies are taking.
The Piracy Analysis Warning Weekly is a weekly rundown of activities in the world’s piracy hotspots — the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Guinea on the west coast of Africa, and Southeast Asia. The product includes piracy events for the past week and weather forecasts for each of the three regions. In addition, the website displays the 10-Day Weather Conditions and Small Boat Operations Capabilities model (Figure 1) for the Horn of Africa. The model, run by the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FLTNUMMETOCCEN) in Monterey, California, shows a probability of pirate attacks based on forecast wind and sea conditions. FLTNUMMETOCCEN is a subordinate of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NAVMETOCCOM).
An ONI piracy subject matter expert (SME) said most groups interested in the products have been receiving them for years through email or another website, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, Coast Guard, U.S. Maritime Administration. “We also see the products or portions of the products posted on several maritime websites and blogs. Currently the WTS and PAWW are sent out to approximately 1,100 email addresses every week. Some of the shipping companies that receive the products forward them to the vessels they own or manage. The people I meet at conferences might never have heard about ONI, but they almost always have heard of the WTS and PAWW.”
The SME said ONI cannot measure the products’ impact on the piracy problem, although pirate activity has subsided in the Horn of Africa. Piracy incidents there went from a high of 32 in 2012 to zero in 2015 and zero so far this year, according to ONI.
The Gulf of Guinea and Southeast Asia have not seen a decrease. The Gulf of Guinea has had 31 incidents so far this year after 96 in 2015 and a recent high of 112 in 2013.
Southeast Asia has had 13 piracy events so far this year after 254 in 2015, the most in recent years.
An ONI piracy SME attributed the Somali piracy decline to “armed embarked security teams on vessels, naval counter-piracy operations, and best management practices employed by vessels transiting the region.”
But while the value of the products cannot be measured, they do improve “situational awareness within the maritime community of what type of piracy and armed robbery at sea is taking place around the world and where most of the activity is occurring.” The website also “highlights new tactics the pirates are using.”
The piracy SME said the Navy meteorology and oceanography community got involved when “5th Fleet requested the pirate attack risk surface model be developed to aid in identifying where pirate activity was most likely to occur, based on past pirate activity, sea states, and weather conditions. ONI provides the information on pirate activity needed to make PARS (Pirate Attack Risk Surface model) accurate. They continue to work together and share information daily.”
NAVMETOCCOM and ONI are both parts of the Navy Information Warfare Community working to ensure assured access in international waters, a key Navy responsibility.