Chapter 8. Transportation sector energy consumption

Overview

In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, transportation sector delivered energy consumption increases at an annual average rate of 1.4%, from 104 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012 to 155 quadrillion Btu in 2040. Transportation energy demand growth occurs almost entirely in regions outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD), with transportation demand roughly flat in OECD regions—largely reflecting different expectations for economic growth in developing regions compared with developed regions.

In 2012, OECD nations accounted for 55% of the world’s total transportation energy consumption, and the non-OECD nations accounted for 45% (Figure 8-1). In 2020, the OECD and non-OECD shares of world transportation energy use are projected to be equal. Non-OECD demand for transportation fuels continues to outpace OECD demand, and in 2040 the non-OECD regions are expected to account for 61% of global transportation energy consumption. In the non-OECD regions, where 80% of the world’s population resides, transportation energy demand nearly doubles, from 47 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 94 quadrillion Btu in 2040, with an average annual increase of 2.5%. In several of the non-OECD regions, energy consumption in light duty vehicles accounts for the bulk of the increase in total transportation energy consumption, as economic growth raises standards of living and, in turn, the demand for personal transportation.

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Transportation sector energy consumption by fuel

Worldwide, petroleum and other liquid fuels [326] are the dominant source of transportation energy, although their share of total transportation energy declines over the IEO2016 projection period, from 96% in 2012 to 88% in 2040. World transportation sector liquid fuels consumption grows by 36 quadrillion Btu in the Reference case projection, with diesel (including biodiesel) showing the largest gain (13 quadrillion Btu), jet fuel consumption increasing by 10 quadrillion Btu, and motor gasoline (including ethanol blends) increasing by 9 quadrillion Btu (Figure 8-2). Motor gasoline remains the largest transportation fuel, but its share of total transportation energy consumption declines from 39% in 2012 to 33% in 2040. From 2012 to 2040 the total transportation market share of diesel fuel (including biodiesel), which is the second-largest transportation fuel, declines from 36% to 33% and the jet fuel share increases from 12% to 14% in 2040.

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The share of natural gas as a transportation fuel grows from 3% in 2012 to 11% in 2040. In 2012, pipelines accounted for 66% of transportation sector natural gas use, light-duty vehicles 28%, and buses 4%. As a result of favorable fuel economics, an increasing share of natural gas is used for transportation modes of travel other than pipelines. A strong increase is projected for the natural gas share of total energy use by large trucks in the Reference case, from 1% in 2012 to 15% in 2040. In addition, 50% of bus energy consumption is projected to be natural gas in 2040, as well as 17% of freight rail, 7% of light-duty vehicles, and 6% of domestic marine vessels.

Electricity remains a minor fuel for the world’s transportation energy use, although its importance in passenger rail transportation remains high: in 2040, electricity will account for 40% of total passenger rail energy consumption. The electricity share of total light-duty vehicle energy consumption grows to 1% in 2040 in the Reference case, as increasing sales of new plug-in electric vehicles penetrate the total light-duty stock.

OECD transportation sector energy consumption

The OECD as a whole does not contribute to the worldwide growth in transportation fuels consumption in the IEO2016 Reference case. OECD transportation energy consumption patterns are already well established with slow economic and population growth rates and vehicle efficiency improvements, transportation energy use for the region as a whole does not increase over the 2012–40 projection period (see "Motor vehicle fuel economy and emissions standards by country,"). Almost no increase in transportation energy consumption is projected for the nations in the OECD Americas, as continued fuel economy improvements offset growth in vehicle miles traveled. In Japan, an aging and declining population results in lower transportation energy use, dropping by an average of 0.7%/year, with Japan’s transportation energy consumption falling from 3.9 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 3.3 quadrillion Btu in 2040. Most of the decline in Japan’s transportation fuel use is for light-duty vehicles, with smaller decreases projected for freight trucks. The largest growth in OECD transportation energy use is projected for the Mexico/Chile region. In combination, delivered transportation energy use increases by 1.2%/year from 2012 to 2040 (Figure 8-3) compared to 0.2%/year for the OECD as a whole.

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Non-OECD transportation sector energy consumption

Virtually all (94%) of the projected growth in world transportation energy use occurs in the developing non-OECD economies, where strong economic growth leads to rising standards of living that translate to demand for personal travel and freight transport to meet growing consumer demand for goods in non-OECD nations.

Non-OECD Asia

Much of the growth in non-OECD (and world) transportation energy use occurs in the emerging economies of non-OECD Asia. In particular, China accounts for the world’s largest regional increment in transportation energy use, adding 14.3 quadrillion Btu of consumption over the 2012–40 projection period. China's consumption of transportation fuels increases on average by 2.7%/year from 2012 to 2040 (Figure 8-4), led by increases of 3.0%/year for heavy-duty vehicles that amount to 34% of the country’s total increase in transportation sector energy consumption. Although energy consumption by light-duty vehicles increases by a more robust 3.5%/year, they account for only 27% of China’s total increase in transportation fuel use.

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Total transportation energy consumption in India also shows substantial growth in the IEO2016 Reference case, from 3.3 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 10.9 quadrillion Btu in 2040, for an average annual increase of 4.4%. Fuel consumption by India’s light-duty vehicles grows by 7.7%/year, accounting for 51% of the total increase in transportation energy use, largely as the result of a sizable increase in the country’s middle class. Energy use by heavy-duty vehicles increases by an average of 4.4%/year from 2012 to 2040 and accounts for 18% of the total increase in India’s transportation energy use.

Like India and China, the other economies of non-OECD Asia also show significant growth in transportation energy demand from 2012 to 2040 in the IEO2016 Reference case. Total transportation energy consumption among the other non-OECD Asia nations grows from 7.6 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 17.0 quadrillion Btu by 2040 in the Reference case, averaging 2.9%/year, with light-duty vehicle energy consumption rising by an average of 3.9%/year and accounting for 51% of the total increase in transportation energy consumption among the non-OECD Asian nations other than China and India. Significant increases in transportation energy use in these other non-OECD Asia nations are also projected for airline travel (17% of the total increase) and for heavy-duty trucks (7%).

Other non-OECD

Although the largest expansion in non-OECD transportation energy use occurs in non-OECD Asia, substantial increases are also projected for Africa, the Middle East, and the non-OECD Americas. In Africa, for instance, transportation energy consumption increases from 4.3 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 10.1 quadrillion Btu by 2040, averaging 3.1%/year. On a regional basis, Africa has the world’s highest projected growth in population (2.1%/year from 2012 to 2040) and robust projected growth in income (GDP rises by 4.8%/year). These demographic trends, combined with an underdeveloped transportation sector, explain the strong increase in transportation energy demand in the IEO2016 Reference case. The consumption of light-duty vehicle fuels increases by 3.9%/year in Africa, accounting for 52% of total transportation energy use in the region, as a result of a substantial increase in the number of middle-class consumers. Energy consumed by heavy-duty trucks increases by an average of 2.5%/year and accounts for 5% of Africa's total increase in transportation energy consumption.

In the non-OECD Americas, growth in transportation energy use is slower than in the non-OECD as a whole. In particular, transportation energy consumption in Brazil—the largest economy in the non-OECD Americas—increases by an average of 1.7%/year from 2012 to 2040, compared to the 2.5%/year increases projected for the non-OECD region as a whole. Fuel consumption in light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks grows by similar rates in Brazil, with light-duty vehicles accounting for 31% of the total increase and heavy-duty trucks for 14%.

Transportation sector energy consumption by mode

The transportation sector comprises both passenger and freight modes. The passenger modes include light-duty cars and trucks, buses, 2- and 3-wheel vehicles, airplanes, and passenger trains. The freight modes, which are used in the movement of raw, intermediate, and finished goods to consumers, include trucks (heavy-, medium-, and light-duty), marine vessels (international and domestic), rail, and pipelines.

Passenger or personal mobility-related fuel consumption accounted for 61% of total world transportation energy consumption in 2012. Among the personal mobility modes of transport, light-duty vehicles accounted for 44% of total world transportation energy use, followed by aircraft at 11%. Buses, 2- and 3-wheel vehicles, and rail accounted for 6% of total world transportation energy use. Freight modes accounted for the other 39% of total world transportation energy consumption. Freight trucks made up by far the largest share (23%) of total transportation energy use, followed by marine vessels (12%) and rail and pipelines (a combined 4%).

Worldwide, projected energy consumption for all transportation modes grows from 2012 to 2040. For passenger travel modes, total energy consumption rises by an average of 1.4%/year, from 63 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 94 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 8-5). Light-duty vehicles show the largest absolute increase (15 quadrillion Btu) from 2012 to 2040 among the passenger modes of travel but the slowest growth (1.0%/year) among all the transport modes. World energy demand for aircraft increases by a total of 10 quadrillion Btu from 2012 to 2040, while the combined energy demand for buses, 2- and 3-wheel vehicles, and rail grows by 6 quadrillion Btu.

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Total freight-related energy consumption grows by an annual average of 1.5% in the IEO2016 Reference case, from 40 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 60 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 8-6)—slightly faster than the passenger modes. Energy consumption for freight trucks increases by a total of 13 quadrillion Btu from 2012 to 2040, followed by marine vessels at 6 quadrillion Btu and rail and pipelines combined at about 2 quadrillion Btu. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently proposed a significant increase in fuel economy standards for heavy trucks. Should these proposed standards be adopted as final rules, they could significantly lower projections for diesel use in trucking. To the extent that these standards are implemented and affect trucks sold throughout the world, the reduction in diesel fuel use in trucking could be greatly magnified.

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The growth trends for energy consumed by passenger modes in OECD and non-OECD regions from 2012 to 2040 differ considerably in the IEO2016 Reference case (Figure 8-7), with the OECD total declining by 1 quadrillion Btu and the non-OECD total increasing by 31 quadrillion Btu. The difference is explained in part by the larger increase in non-OECD passenger travel per capita from a low average base relative to most OECD nations. Non-OECD income (as measured by GDP) grows at a faster rate than in the OECD economies, and non-OECD consumers use more personal transportation as per-capita incomes grow. Although incomes also rise in the OECD nations, OECD levels of personal mobility are already relatively high, and transportation patterns and infrastructure are well established. In addition, the effects of increases in personal travel on OECD transportation energy consumption are tempered by rising energy efficiency, resulting in no growth in transportation energy consumption (see Figure 8-1). Although energy efficiency improvements also occur in the non-OECD regions, their impacts are overwhelmed by the increases in personal incomes and travel demand.

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By mode, the largest increases in annual energy consumption for non-OECD passenger travel from 2012 to 2040 in the Reference case are for light-duty vehicles (20 quadrillion Btu) and aircraft (6 quadrillion Btu). In contrast, OECD energy demand for light-duty vehicles declines by 5 quadrillion Btu from 2012 to 2040, and annual energy demand for aircraft grows by only 4 quadrillion Btu.

In contrast to passenger modes of travel, the trends in freight modes in the OECD and non-OECD regions are similar (Figure 8-12). In both, energy consumption increases for all freight modes from 2012 to 2040, with the largest increases for trucks and international maritime vessels. Production and consumption of goods worldwide are an integral part of globalized supply chains, including trade in intermediate products for global production processes, which in large part is made possible by containerized transportation shipping and advances in information technology.

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Transportation sector travel demand

Rising global incomes increase the demand for personal mobility, measured as passenger-miles per capita, in all the world regions, with different rates of increase depending on current income levels (Figure 8-13) and travel patterns, as well as the unique nature of regional geographies. Consequently, the rates of increase in travel demand per capita vary across the OECD and non-OECD regions (Figure 8-14).

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OECD regions are, for the most part, economically developed and thus have higher levels of personal mobility than the non-OECD countries. In the IEO2016 Reference case, OECD passenger travel per capita (including light-duty and 2- and 3-wheel vehicles, buses, and passenger rail but excluding aircraft) increases from 9.1 thousand passenger-miles/person in 2012 to 10.3 thousand passenger-miles/person in 2040, while average GDP per capita rises from about $36,000/person to $56,500/person (in inflation-adjusted real 2010 U.S. dollars). In comparison, average non-OECD GDP per capita rises from an average of $8,500/person in 2012 to $20,800/person in 2040, and passenger travel per capita rises from 2.1 thousand passenger-miles/person in 2012 to 4.9 thousand passenger-miles/person in 2040.

As a result of the increase of more than 100% in non-OECD travel demand from 2012 to 2040, the region’s total energy use for passenger travel in 2040 is more than 50% higher than the OECD total, compared with about two-thirds the OECD total in 2012. In 2012, non-OECD Asia (including China and India) and Africa accounted for two-thirds of the world’s total population; in 2040, they are projected to account for more than 70%. Accordingly, the two regions have the largest projected growth in transportation energy consumption in the IEO2016 Reference case. In China, delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector increases by 2.7%/year from 2012 to 2040, compared with 0.2%/year for the OECD as a whole. Per-capita income in China in 2040 is similar to the OECD level in 2012, but China’s transportation sector delivered energy consumption in 2040, at 18.9 million Btu/person, is less than half the OECD’s 2012 average of 46.2 million Btu/person.

The transportation modes used for passenger travel also reflect the effects of rising incomes and the current difference between OECD and non-OECD personal mobility choices. In 2012, more than 80% of OECD personal travel was by light-duty vehicle, compared with 41% of non-OECD personal travel. In the non-OECD region, a substantial portion of personal travel was by bus (35%), passenger rail (13%), and 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles (11%). Non-OECD economic growth and rising incomes in the IEO2016 Reference case lead to a higher overall rate of light-duty vehicle ownership (measured as the number of light-duty vehicles per 1,000 people), but in 2040 the non-OECD rate of light-duty vehicle ownership remains well below the OECD rate (Figure 8-15). Still, the light-duty vehicle share of non-OECD passenger travel rises to more than 50% in 2040, primarily at the expense of buses and 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles (Figure 8-16). Consequently the difference in light-duty vehicle travel shares between the OECD and non-OECD regions is narrowed, but not eliminated, by 2040 in the Reference case.

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Demand for personal travel by aircraft, measured as revenue passenger-miles, shows a similar trend. As GDP and personal incomes increase, business and personal airline travel also increase. Relatively wealthy OECD consumers already have a much higher rate of airline travel per capita than do non-OECD consumers. Demand for airline travel increases in the Reference case for both the OECD and non-OECD regions, with more rapid growth among the non-OECD regions.

The movement of freight (including trucks, rail, and domestic marine vessels), measured in ton-miles [328], also shows the impact of economic growth. Freight travel demand is related explicitly to economic activity, including the production and consumption of goods in either intermediate or final form. Non-service industrial gross output [329] per capita and GDP per capita can be used as proxies for production and intermediate and personal consumption. As these two measures increase, the number of freight ton-miles per capita increases. For example, in the IEO2016 Reference case, OECD nonservice industrial gross output per capita increases from about $24,000/person in 2012 to $37,000/person in 2040 (Figure 8-20), and ton-miles per capita increases from about 6.0 thousand ton-miles/person in 2012 to 9.0 thousand ton-miles/person in 2040 (Figure 8-21). Similarly, non-OECD non-service industrial output per capita grows from $10,000/person to $22,000/person, and ton-miles per capita increases from about 2.0 thousand ton-miles in 2012 to 4.0 thousand ton-miles in 2040.

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Another source of freight energy consumption is international marine vessels. Worldwide economic growth from the production and consumption of goods, as well as consumption of energy commodities, leads directly to growth in worldwide volumes of maritime freight movement. Approximately 80% of the world’s merchandise trade by volume is carried over water, with maritime trade in 2012 totaling nearly 60 trillion ton-miles [330]. Because of globalized supply chains, maritime shipments of nonenergy commodities, such as manufactured goods, agricultural products, and minerals, have grown much faster than global GDP and accounted for approximately 60% of total maritime freight movement in in 2012. Significant amounts of energy commodities, such as crude oil from the Middle East and coal from Australia, also are transported internationally by cargo ships.