‹ Analysis & Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Next Release Date: January 10, 2017 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures
Electricity
- Total U.S. electricity generation from utility-scale plants averaged 11,172 gigawatthours per day in 2015. Forecast U.S. generation grows by 0.2% in 2016 and by 0.7% in 2017.
- EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas will average 34% this year, and the share from coal will average 30%. In 2015, both fuels supplied about 33% of total U.S. electricity generation. In 2017, natural gas and coal are forecast to generate 33% and 31% of electricity, respectively. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to generate 8% of electricity generation in 2016 and 9% in 2017. Generation shares of nuclear and hydropower are forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2016 to 2017.
Electricity Retail Prices
| U.S. Electricity Summary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 projected | 2017 projected | |
| Retail Prices | (cents per kilowatthour) | |||
| Residential Sector | 12.52 | 12.65 | 12.53 | 12.87 |
| Commercial Sector | 10.74 | 10.64 | 10.34 | 10.58 |
| Industrial Sector | 7.10 | 6.91 | 6.75 | 6.87 |
| Power Generation Fuel Costs | (dollars per million Btu) | |||
| Coal | 2.36 | 2.23 | 2.14 | 2.21 |
| Natural Gas | 4.98 | 3.23 | 2.94 | 3.83 |
| Residual Fuel Oil | 19.19 | 10.36 | 8.44 | 9.80 |
| Distillate Fuel Oil | 22.32 | 14.44 | 11.12 | 13.99 |
| Generation | (billion kWh per day) | |||
| Coal | 4.333 | 3.705 | 3.405 | 3.532 |
| Natural Gas | 3.087 | 3.653 | 3.815 | 3.691 |
| Nuclear | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.180 | 2.172 |
| Conventional Hydroelectric | 0.705 | 0.682 | 0.742 | 0.722 |
| Renewable (non-hydroelectric) | 0.765 | 0.809 | 0.925 | 1.014 |
| Total Generation | 11.215 | 11.172 | 11.189 | 11.263 |
| Retail Sales | (billion kWh per day) | |||
| Residential Sector | 3.86 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| Commercial Sector | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 |
| Industrial Sector | 2.73 | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.66 |
| Total Retail Sales | 10.31 | 10.30 | 10.19 | 10.26 |
| Primary Assumptions | (percent change from previous year) | |||
| Real DIsposable Personal Income | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Manufacturing Production Index | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Cooling Degree Days | -0.7 | 14.7 | 4.4 | -8.1 |
| Heating Degree Days | 1.9 | -10.2 | -5.6 | 6.5 |
| Number of Households | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
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