ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192122

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2016

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   Generally low-amplitude upper flow is expected across the contiguous
   US at the beginning of the extended period (12Z Wednesday). A
   shortwave trough will move eastward through this zonal flow, from
   the northern Plains through the upper Great Lakes on D3/Wed and
   D4/Thu, with strong surface ridging building in its wake across the
   northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. As a result, some
   modest offshore flow is possible on D3/Wed across southern
   California but fuels are not expected to be receptive, limiting any
   fire weather potential

   At the same time, a southern stream upper low will become displaced
   from the main westerlies aloft, remaining largely in place over the
   eastern Pacific Ocean west of the Baja Peninsula. This low is then
   expected to eject northeastward late D4/Thu or early D5/Fri ahead of
   a strong shortwave trough dropping southward along the West Coast.
   This strong shortwave trough is eventually expected to move eastward
   across the Southwest, but guidance currently shows inconsistency on
   when that occurs. Strong winds fields will likely accompany the
   system once it does move across the Southwest but uncertainty
   regarding the overall evolution of the system currently leads to a
   low predictability forecast for weekend.

   ..Mosier.. 12/19/2016

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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