Battlegrounds 2016
This may not be the closest election we have had in this young century, but at the moment it is the most wide open. Swing-state polls show unusually high numbers of undecided voters, a function of each candidate’s deep unpopularity. What had been a generally contracting electoral-college map is now expanding in previously unimaginable ways, and to make sense of how the candidates are moving pieces around this game board, Bloomberg Politics is rambling across the battleground states to explore the unique arithmetic that governs presidential elections in each of them, and explicating the strategies and tactics that will determine who gets their electoral votes. Long before we know who will win each state, we can begin to divine how it will be won.
- How the Battleground Game Is PlayedA primer on the concepts and tactics political strategists use to compete—and how this project was created.1
- Tracing Donald Trump’s Rust-Belt RouteTrump’s best shot at the Oval Office is to convert white, working-class Democratic men in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. But the arithmetic works better in some states than others.2
- Gaming the Six-Week Election DayEarly voting has transformed political campaigning. Here’s how it may play out in Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina.3
- The Clinton Campaign Has a Millennial Math ProblemIn New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and other northern states, the Democratic nominee still has to close the deal with Bernie Sanders holdouts.4
- Which States Can Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Spoil?How third parties could change the electoral map.5
- Hillary Clinton’s Military TargetsTrump’s schizophrenia on defense (along with a few other problems) is putting people with a military connection in play as never before. Can Clinton make inroads along the Eastern front?6
- In Search of the Never-Trump Ticket-SplittersIn states like Arizona, New Hampshire, and Ohio, voters who can't abide the top of the GOP ticket but support it down-ballot may decide who occupies the White House—and controls the Senate.7
- Clinton’s Florida Secret Weapon: New Puerto Rican ArrivalsThe debt crisis has driven many Puerto Ricans to Central Florida—and changed the landscape of the archetypal battleground state.8