Candidates Make Last Ditch Ad Spending Push Across 14-State Electoral Map
By Ken Goldstein, John McCormickJohn McCormick and Andre TartarAndre Tartar
Last updated: November 2, 2016

Money is flowing fast into television markets in battleground states—and then some—across the country. Clinton has increased her ad spending by 86 percent as compared with the week beginning October 18, to $29.6 million, which is double what Donald Trump spent ($14.9 million).

For the week beginning October 25, the Clinton campaign spent $154,696 per electoral vote in the states where she advertised. Her average weekly expenditure per electoral vote over the 19 prior weeks in the general election campaign was $58,492. Donald Trump’s expenditure per electoral vote for the same week was $91,938, largely unchanged from the prior week, but still a considerable increase as compared with his prior weekly average of $22,753. (In 10 of those weeks, he had no targeted state ads whatsoever.) Both candidates are directing the bulk of their ad-buy firepower at five states: Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

General election TV ad spending by electoral vote for the week of Oct. 25
Squares sized by amount of TV ad spending per electoral vote.
New Hampshire4 electoral votesClinton $171,268Trump $105,518 Nevada6 electoral votesClinton $373,639Trump $158,459 Iowa6 electoral votesClinton $132,887Trump $67,986 Florida29 electoral votesClinton $294,054Trump $145,197 Colorado9 electoral votesClinton $0Trump $91,775 Pennsylvania20 electoral votesClinton $170,504Trump $82,484 Ohio18 electoral votesClinton $205,328Trump $78,394 Arizona11 electoral votesClinton $127,298Trump $0 Wisconsin10 electoral votesClinton $25,542Trump $52,042 Virginia13 electoral votesClinton $0Trump $19,280 Maine1 electoral voteClinton $167,786Trump $142,609 Nebraska1 electoral voteClinton $167,845Trump $0 Texas38 electoral votesClinton $186Trump $0 North Carolina15 electoral votesClinton $216,031Trump $83,464
Virginia13 electoral votesClinton $0Trump $19,280 Texas38 electoral votesClinton $186Trump $0 Nevada6 electoral votesClinton $373,639Trump $158,459 Florida29 electoral votesClinton $294,054Trump $145,197 Ohio18 electoral votesClinton $205,328Trump $78,394 North Carolina15 electoral votesClinton $216,031Trump $83,464 New Hampshire4 electoral votesClinton $171,268Trump $105,518 Pennsylvania20 electoral votesClinton $170,504Trump $82,484 Iowa6 electoral votesClinton $132,887Trump $67,986 Colorado9 electoral votesClinton $0Trump $91,775 Arizona11 electoral votesClinton $127,298Trump $0 Wisconsin10 electoral votesClinton $25,542Trump $52,042 Maine1 electoral voteClinton $167,786Trump $142,609 Nebraska1 electoral voteClinton $167,845Trump $0
Virginia13 electoral votesClinton $0Trump $19,280 Texas38 electoral votesClinton $186Trump $0 Colorado9 electoral votesClinton $0Trump $91,775 Wisconsin10 electoral votesClinton $25,542Trump $52,042 Nevada6 electoral votesClinton $373,639Trump $158,459 Florida29 electoral votesClinton $294,054Trump $145,197 Ohio18 electoral votesClinton $205,328Trump $78,394 North Carolina15 electoral votesClinton $216,031Trump $83,464 New Hampshire4 electoral votesClinton $171,268Trump $105,518 Pennsylvania20 electoral votesClinton $170,504Trump $82,484 Iowa6 electoral votesClinton $132,887Trump $67,986 Arizona11 electoral votesClinton $127,298Trump $0 Maine1 electoral voteClinton $167,786Trump $142,609 Nebraska1 electoral voteClinton $167,845Trump $0
Note: Maine and Nebraska refer only to their 2nd Congressional Districts.

The dollars-per-electoral-vote formula helps control for state population size and for the varying cost of buying ad time in different markets.

For example, Clinton has spent almost twice as much money over course of the campaign in Pennsylvania as in Nevada—$22.6 million, compared to $11.6 million—but Pennsylvania is bigger, with more potential voters. Dividing the total amount spent by the campaign in each state by Electoral College votes reveals that nearly 72 percent more Clinton-ad firepower has been targeted at Nevada ($1.9 million per EV) than at Pennsylvania ($1.1 million per EV).

It’s notable that Clinton is spending money in states where Democratic ad dollars historically haven’ t been considered a necessary (or good) investment: Maine, Texas, and, new last week, a $255,423 ad buy in Wisconsin.

General election TV ad spending over time
8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 Texas Georgia Michigan Virginia Arizona Colorado Maine Nebraska Wisconsin Florida Iowa Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Total amount spent by both candidates: $100K $1M $5M $10M
Arizona Colorado Georgia Michigan Nebraska Texas Virginia Wisconsin Florida Iowa Maine Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Total amount spent by both candidates: $100K $1M $5M $10M 9/20 9/6 9/13 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25
Arizona Colorado Nebraska Texas Florida Iowa Maine Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin Total amount spent by both candidates: $100K $1M $5M $10M 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25
Note: Maine and Nebraska refer only to their 2nd Congressional Districts.

Clinton’s sharp uptick in spending in the last week of the campaign brings her overall numbers for this cycle closer to 2012 levels. Trump, however, still falls far below.

General election TV ad spending to date, compared to 2012 spending
21 weeks until election 2 weeks 12 weeks $241.5MObama $156.8MRomney $74.0MTrump 0 50 100 150 200 $250M $211.4MClinton
$241.5MObama $74.0MTrump 21 weeks until election 2 weeks 12 weeks 0 50 100 150 200 $250M $156.8MRomney $211.4MClinton
21 weeks until election 2weeks 12weeks 2012 spending: Romney Obama 0 50 100 150 200 $200M $74.0MTrump $211.4MClinton
Note: Spending by the two campaigns only, not including money spent by Super-PACs and other outside groups.

The primary outside groups supporting Hillary Clinton have spent more than $103 million this cycle; groups backing Trump have spent just over $37 million in the same period.

Graphics: Christopher Cannon
Photos: Brendan Smialowski / Getty Images; Robert Nickelsberg / Getty Images
Source: Bloomberg Politics analysis of Kantar Media/CMAG data
Methodology: Only TV advertising is examined here: broadcast, cable, and satellite. Only spending by the two major party campaigns was included. Each media market where the campaigns are advertising was assigned to the battleground state it’s being used to target. State ad spending totals were then divided by the respective number of Electoral College votes.