U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
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Federal Highway Administration Research and Technology
Exploratory Advanced Research Program
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) invited a group of stakeholders involved in the future of transportation to a 1.5-day think tank forum, the first of three to be held in 2005. The U.S. Department of Transportation's (USDOT) Volpe Center and futurist Glen Hiemstra of Futurist.com provided planning support for the forum. The intent of the forums was to seek ideas to help FHWA establish a strategic agenda for advanced research.
FHWA held the first forum at the Seaport Hotel and Seaport World Trade Center in Boston, MA, in conjunction with the Transportation Research Board (TRB) summer meetings. Approximately 40 participants and expert speakers gathered for this interactive event. Through a series of structured presentations and discussions, the participants explored issues impacting the future of transportation and identified advanced research needs. Then, using a modified version of the nominal group technique (a methodology for maximizing and equalizing individual input within a group process) for group decisionmaking, the participants developed a list of suggested research topics and ranked the priority items.
This summary first lists the outcome of the participants' decisionmaking process and then provides a brief summary of the presentations and discussions that preceded the decisions. Finally, a few comments relevant to the design of the next forums will be made. A summary CD-ROM also is available and includes additional items, such as the meeting agenda, participant list, presentations, and photos taken at the forum.
1. Scan across disciplines, inside and outside the transportation system, to search for promising research and technology that could fundamentally improve the future transportation system and services.
2. Develop a set of recommended areas, topics, or questions for consideration as part of a strategic agenda for advanced research.
During the Boston forum, participants convened in four groups and worked together to recommend a set of topics or arenas for advanced research. These topics are listed below in decreasing order with the topics at the top receiving the most number of votes.
A series of presentations by leading transportation experts set the stage for participant discussions. Each presentation is included on the Summary CD-ROM as Microsoft® PowerPoint® slides in Adobe® Acrobat® Portable Document Format (PDF).
Dennis Judycki, FHWA's Associate Administrator for Research, Development, and Technology, personally welcomed the attendees and provided background on the advanced research initiative. The FHWA mission includes enhancing mobility through innovation, leadership, and public service. Research and technology activities at FHWA cover many aspects of the innovation process, including development and deployment of new products and services, education, and training. This workshop was the first of three to be held this year; the second was held in Minnesota in September, and the third in California in October. TRB's Research and Technology Coordinating Committee (RTCC) was briefed on the outcomes of the three advanced research workshops on November 1-2, 2005.
As part of Associate Administrator Judycki's welcome, a video presentation was shown featuring FHWA Acting Administrator J. Richard Capka. The video emphasized the value of the forum activity to FHWA and stressed the need to (1) raise awareness of what is going on in advanced research and (2) reward partnerships with funding.
Associate Administrator Judycki emphasized FHWA's interest in enabling innovations for a better transportation future. He also defined advanced research as exploratory research that draws on basic research to provide a better understanding of phenomena and to develop innovative solutions. He hoped that these forums would identify advanced research theme clusters, with an emphasis on higher risk and long-term issues.
What words or pictures come to mind when thinking about the future? This warmup exercise worked with the idea that participants' images of the future play a powerful role in shaping present actions. Change the image of the future, and one begins to change behavior in the present day. Individuals at tables shared their images of the future, and examples were cited for everyone to hear. Sample images of the future articulated by participants include:
In two presentations, Mark Safford from the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and Glen Hiemstra reviewed future demographic, socioeconomic, energy and environment, and technology global trends that could potentially impact the future of transportation. These presentations provided a framework and context for envisioning probable, possible, and desirable futures and for feedback in group discussions.
Following each round of speakers, table groups discussed their impressions, and then general comments were made to the whole group.
The following is a list of some of the participants' comments following presentations by Tom Sheridan, Senior Transportation Fellow in Human Systems at the Volpe Center and Ford Professor of Engineering and Applied Psychology Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Professor Joseph Coughlin, Director of the MIT AgeLab and of University Transportation Center-Region 1 on evolving demographics, aging, and human factors in transportation:
The following is a list of some of the participants' comments following presentations by Director of the Institute for Civil Infrastructure Systems at New York University Rae Zimmerman and Duquesne Light Professor and Chair of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University Chris T. Hendrickson on future threats to transportation and on green design:
The following is a list of some of the participants' comments that followed presentations by MIT Professor Joseph Sussman and Boston University Professor and Director of the Center for Transportation Studies T.R. Lakshmanan on intelligent transportation systems and technological innovations in the 21st century:
The think tanks led to several revelations. First, there was a sense that the think tank process and outcomes emphasized the interdisciplinary nature of the forums. The discussions were customer-oriented rather than technology-focused, and service-oriented rather than infrastructure-oriented. Because transportation issues are extremely complex, solutions will require public-private collaborations. Associate Administrator Judycki made several observations:
Priscilla Nelson noted that the new pressures on transportation include aging, human factors, information overload, and the rapidity of technology change. She asked, "What are the things we cannot ignore any longer?" and stated that "if technological change is driving things, we need to catch up with them." Sussman argued that we are adding to and expanding our concept of "transportation" beyond vehicles and infrastructure to include externalities, institutions, and methods.
Walton wondered, "How do you put all of this in context?" Walton suggested that we think of an overarching process to bring this into focus, such as the Shell scenario-planning model. He argued for performing sensitivity testing of the interrelationships using that methodology.
Associate Administrator Judycki responded that he sees it as a peer process. Scenario planning might work. Advanced research does not have a fixed future time frame. We also want to "pick the low-hanging fruit." FHWA would have to hand off research and development (R&D) in some areas, such as vehicles and fuels, to someone else.
TRB's Director of Special Programs Neil Hawks suggested that the timeframe for advanced research should extend beyond the next 5 years: "The nearest we should be thinking is 50 years!" He noted that even the relatively simple Superpave® program took 20 years to implement from needs identification to completed implementation. Sussman added that Superpave was not an advanced research topic, yet it took a long time to develop and deploy.
Professor William "Bill" Moomaw, senior director of the Tufts Institute of the Environment, noted that the process of disseminating new technologies is accelerating. The next generation of advances will spread even faster. Sheridan asked how much time and money it would take to get to a new innovation, and how much better off would we be because of it? Getting those answers is not easy, but it is the way to determine whether to pursue the innovation. Moomaw added that in the past, we did not consider the consequences to others of what we do, but now equity requires such consideration. In a closing comment, Thomas E. Marchessault of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration suggested that "safety" is missing as a separate item on our final list of research agenda items. Other participants agreed that the master list of topics does substantially contribute to improved safety.
This summary report was prepared by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com; Mark Safford, Judith Yahoodik, and Aviva Brecher, Volpe Center Project Team; and Ariam Asmerom, FHWA Office of Corporate Research and Technology.
Debra Elston, Director
FHWA Office of Corporate Research and Technology
The Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) conducts research across a wide range of topics and disciplines. To supplement the expertise of the permanent staff, it is important to bring in researchers with the appropriate backgrounds to investigate specific problems at short-term basis. Through the Exploratory Advanced Research (EAR) Program, FHWA utilizes the Resident Associates (or Postdoctoral Fellows) program of the National Research Council (NRC) for this purpose. The NRC provides a process for selecting candidates on a competitive merit basis and subsequently for administration of the Resident Fellows during their tenures at FHWA. [More]