Analysis of Network and Non-Network Factors on Traveler Choice Toward Improving Modeling Accuracy for Better Transportation Decisionmaking

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FOREWORD

Travelers’ choices are central to the performance of a transportation system, but little is known about what influences such choices or the impact they have on system performance. When selecting a transportation management strategy, a transportation management center operator must understand and anticipate how travelers will respond (i.e., will they stay on the same routes or divert; will they decide to walk, bike, or take a bus or train instead of driving; will they leave earlier or later, etc.).

The operator must know the potential benefits of alternative overall strategies (e.g., variable pricing or information on dynamic message signs) as well as how to handle day-to-day operations by implementing strategies to provide effective responses to particular events. The operator must also account for non-network, predisposing factors that influence travelers’ choices. Such factors, including land use, population density, and walkability, are generally out of the control of the network manager, and their influence may not be intuitively obvious.

This report addresses the current state of the practice, identifies gaps in knowledge regarding traveler choices, and provides six case studies on how to improve current models. This report provides a comprehensive conceptual framework that incorporates traveler behavior and the impact on network performance for demand-side and supply-side measures. This report will be a resource for both traveler choice researchers and organizations considering transportation management strategies that influence traveler choice.

Joseph I. Peters
Director, Office of Operations
Research and Development