A recent analysis by staff at Volpe, The National Transportation Systems Center, aims to identify whether and to what extent industry-planned alternative jet fuel production can contribute to aviation carbon neutral growth goals. The international aviation industry has committed to carbon neutral growth starting in 2020, which means that carbon dioxide emissions will not grow as aviation demand increases.

Aviation currently generates about 2 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) goals are to achieve 1 billion gallons of alternative jet fuel production by 2018 and to return to 2005 emissions levels by 2020.

In contrast to theoretical studies that focus on total technical potential for alternative fuel production, staff from Volpe's Center for Environmental and Energy Systems reviewed production plans from companies across the alternative fuels industry. To project the role that alternative fuels may play in achieving carbon neutral growth goals, the company-specific data were incorporated into seven alternative fuel production scenarios.

The researchers reduced uncertainties in the companies' future plans by creating a range of production scenarios. Two scenarios were limited to companies that explicitly plan to produce alternative jet fuel. Researchers made jet fuel production projections based on varying rates of success in the companies' initial and expanded production forecasts. The additional five scenarios included companies that do not have specific plans to produce alternative jet fuel, but are technically capable of doing so. In these scenarios, the researchers forecasted varying amounts of alternative jet fuel production that could occur if the companies were incentivized and successful. Volpe's analysis suggests that FAA's goal to achieve 1 billion gallons of alternative jet fuel production by 2018 may be achievable.

"While these data are only a single snapshot in time of market-driven company plans, they provide a possible range of fuel production levels that could occur if the industry is successful," said Dr. Kristin Lewis, the environmental biologist leading this research.

The alternative jet fuel production results were used with representative life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions values for each alternative fuel conversion process to give insight into how alternative fuels may contribute to GHG emissions goals. The most optimistic scenarios show a potential leveling off of GHG emissions leading up to 2020, suggesting that international targets for carbon neutral growth starting in 2020 may be possible given appropriate economic and policy conditions. However, none of the scenarios shows a return to the 2005 emissions levels by 2020 as targeted by the FAA, further emphasizing that a range of measures will be needed to achieve that target.

This research provides a snapshot in time of how current conditions are shaping industry plans for alternative jet fuels, and the potential contribution those fuels may make to industry and governmental goals for carbon neutral growth by 2020. The FAA is using these results to inform further target-setting and policy decisions. The results were also recently referred to in the United States Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan, submitted to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

"We're pleased that this work is already being used by FAA's Office of Environment and Energy to corroborate targets and identify gaps, and we hope it will provide a baseline for tracking future industry progress and for identifying potential additional measures that may be needed to achieve aviation's greenhouse gas goals," said Dr. Lewis.

Photo above: Dr. Kristin Lewis, environmental biologist, recently led a research project, which examined industry-planned alternative jet fuel production. (Volpe photo)