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Freight Shipments Fell 1.8% in May from April

Freight Shipments Fell 1.8% in May from April

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BTS 35-11
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568

Freight Transportation Services Index, June 2009-May 2011

Table Version | Excel | CSV

Freight Transportation Services Index, June 2009-May 2011

Wednesday, July 13, 2011 - The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry declined 1.8 percent in May from April, falling for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportations Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today (Table 1).

BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that freight shipments in May measured by the Freight TSI dropped to their lowest level since November 2010 (Table 2A).

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Recent trend: Freight shipments have increased in 17 of the last 25 months but declined in three of the past four months (Table 2). Shipments rose 12.0 percent over the last 25 months, starting in May 2009, after declining 15.7 percent in the previous 15 months beginning in February 2008. In May 2011, freight shipments returned to about the same level as October 2008 when the amount of freight shipped was early in its decline (Table 2A). For additional historic data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml

Year-to-date: For the first five months of 2011, freight shipments measured by the index were down 1.2 percent (Table 3).

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in May (105.6 on the index) rose 12.0 percent from the recent low in April 2009 (94.3). In April 2009, freight shipments were at their lowest level since June 1997 (92.3). The May 2011 level is down 6.8 percent from the historic freight shipment peak reached in January 2005 (113.3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are down 5.6 percent in the five years from May 2006. Shipments are up 5.9 percent in the 10 years from May 2001 despite recent declines (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: Although freight shipments rose 1.4 percent from May 2010 to May 2011, they remain below the early recession level of May 2008 (110.2) and the recent high for the month of May (111.9) reached in 2006 (Table 4).

The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the June index is scheduled for Aug 10.

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 2.8 percent in May from its April level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI May 2011 level of 116.3 was 4.2 percent above the May 2010 level (Table 7). The index is up 3.9 percent in five years and up 14.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).

The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel conducted in the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.5 percent in May from its April level (Table 8). The combined TSI May 2011 level of 108.4 was 2.2 percent higher than the May 2010 level (Table 9). The combined index is down 3.0 percent in five years and up 8.2 percent in 10 years despite recent declines (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: TSI numbers for January (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The January Freight TSI is 107.9, revised from the 108.1 reported in last months release. The January Passenger TSI is 113.5, revised from 113.9. The January Combined TSI is 109.4, revised from 109.6. The TSI for February, March, April and May are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml

More information about the comprehensive revision conducted with the March release is provided under 2011 Comprehensive Revision at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since November 2010
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  Freight Passenger Combined
Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change
November 104.4 -0.7 114.4 -0.3 107.0 -0.6
December 106.9 2.4 113.3 -1.0 108.6 1.5
JanuaryR 107.9 1.0 113.5 0.2 109.4 0.7
FebruaryP 106.5 -1.3 112.9 -0.6 108.2 -1.1
MarchP 108.6 1.9 113.1 0.2 109.7 1.4
AprilP 107.5 -1.0 113.1 0.1 109.0 -0.7
MayP 105.6 -1.8 116.3 2.8 108.4 -0.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2008-2011
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change
January 1.8 -2.4 0.5 (R) 1.0
February -0.2 2.8 1.1 (P) -1.3
March -1.7 -4.0 1.2 (P) 1.9
April 0.6 -1.6 0.1 (P) -1.0
May -0.1 0.3 0.5 (P) -1.8
June -0.4 1.0 -0.1  
July 0.2 1.6 0.3  
August -1.7 1.5 -0.4  
September -1.0 -0.5 1.1  
October -1.1 -0.7 0.2  
November -2.5 2.9 -0.7  
December -3.6 0.6 2.4  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2008-2011

Excel | CSV

  2008 2009 2010 2011
January 111.8 97.1 101.1 (R) 107.9
February 111.6 99.8 102.3 (P) 106.5
March 109.6 95.9 103.6 (P) 108.6
April 110.3 94.3 103.7 (P) 107.5
May 110.2 94.6 104.2 (P) 105.6
June 109.7 95.5 104.0  
July 109.9 97.1 104.3  
August 108.1 98.5 103.9  
September 107.0 98.0 105.0  
October 105.8 97.3 105.2  
November 103.2 100.1 104.4  
December 99.4 100.7 106.9  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2002-2011
Percent change from December of previous year
December to May

Excel | CSV

Year Freight Passenger Combined
2002 3.0 5.9 3.8
2003 -1.8 -4.9 -2.7
2004 2.3 2.1 2.3
2005 1.0 2.5 1.5
2006 0.4 2.6 1.0
2007 -1.1 4.7 0.5
2008 0.3 0.4 0.3
2009 -4.9 -2.3 -4.2
2010 3.5 1.5 2.9
2011P -1.2 2.7 -0.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent Change in the May Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  May Freight TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2002 100.7 1.0
2003 102.5 1.8
2004 109.9 7.3
2005 111.3 1.3
2006 111.9 0.5
2007 108.6 -2.9
2008 110.2 1.5
2009 94.6 -14.2
2010 104.2 10.2
2011P 105.6 1.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2011 (May to May)

Excel | CSV

Since May... Duration in years Freight TSI Percent
change to May 2011		 Passenger TSI Percent
change to May 2011		 Combined TSI Percent
change to May 2011
2010 1 1.4 4.2 2.2
2009 2 11.7 7.4 10.5
2008 3 -4.2 -1.1 -3.3
2007 4 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8
2006 5 -5.6 3.9 -3.0
2005 6 -5.2 6.6 -2.0
2004 7 -3.9 13.4 0.7
2003 8 3.0 25.4 8.9
2002 9 4.8 22.3 9.5
2001 10 5.9 14.8 8.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: The percent changes to May 2011 are all preliminary.

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2008-2011
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change
January -0.2 -1.0 0.6 (P) 0.2
February 1.4 0.5 -2.1 (P) -0.6
March -1.3 -1.4 2.3 (P) 0.2
April 0.0 1.4 0.2 (P) 0.1
May 0.6 -1.7 0.6 (P) 2.8
June -0.9 0.5 0.8  
July -0.1 1.5 -0.2  
August -1.3 -0.1 0.2  
September -1.4 -0.6 1.0  
October -0.8 0.1 0.9  
November -1.7 -0.1 -0.3  
December 0.1 0.2 -1.0  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the May Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  May Passenger TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2002 95.1 -6.1
2003 92.8 -2.5
2004 102.5 10.5
2005 109.1 6.4
2006 111.9 2.5
2007 119.6 6.9
2008 117.6 -1.7
2009 108.3 -8.0
2010 111.7 3.1
2011P 116.3 4.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2008-2011
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change
January 1.2 -2.0 0.5 (R) 0.7
February 0.2 2.2 0.2 (P) -1.1
March -1.6 -3.3 1.5 (P) 1.4
April 0.4 -0.8 0.1 (P) -0.7
May 0.1 -0.3 0.5 (P) -0.5
June -0.6 0.9 0.1  
July 0.1 1.6 0.1  
August -1.6 1.1 -0.2  
September -1.1 -0.5 1.0  
October -1.0 -0.5 0.4  
November -2.3 2.1 -0.6  
December -2.6 0.5 1.5  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the May Combined TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  May Combined TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2002 99.0 -1.2
2003 99.6 0.6
2004 107.7 8.2
2005 110.6 2.7
2006 111.8 1.1
2007 111.5 -0.2
2008 112.2 0.6
2009 98.1 -12.5
2010 106.1 8.2
2011P 108.4 2.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:

For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.