February 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

Press Release Number:

BTS 21-16

Date:

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Media Contact:

Dave Smallen, 202-366-5568

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.7 percent in February from January, falling after two months of growth, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). The February 2016 index level (122.2) was 29.0 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Freight Transportation Services Index, February 2011 - February 2016

Table Version | Excel

Freight Transportation Services Index, February 2011 - February 2016

The level of freight shipments in February measured by the Freight TSI (122.2) was 1.2 percent below the all-time high level of 123.7 in November 2014 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The January index was revised to 123.1 from 122.2 in last month’s release.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The February Freight TSI decrease of 0.7 percent from January was due to substantial declines in trucking and pipeline, and a smaller decrease in rail intermodal. Air freight, water, and rail carloads all increased. The TSI decrease paralleled a drop in the Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index which declined by 0.5 percent in February (reversing its decline in January), with particular declines in mining (1.4 percent) and utilities (4.0 percent). The ISM Manufacturing Index, though it increased, was again below 50, indicating declining manufacturing activity. Value of manufacturers’ inventories decreased again in January, though inventory to sales ratios remained high. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes.

Trend: The February Freight TSI decline of 0.7 percent from January left the index below its October 2015 level and below the level of all months from July 2015 to October 2015. The index remains high compared to earlier years with an increase of 29.0 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in February 2016 (122.2) were 29.0 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The February 2016 level was 1.2 percent below the historic peak reached in November 2014 (123.7).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.6 percent in February compared to the end of 2015 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 12.0 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of February 2011 and are up 9.6 percent in the 10 years from February 2006 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: February 2016 freight shipments were up 1.0 percent from February 2015 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the March 2016 index is scheduled for May 11.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in February from its January level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI February 2016 level of 123.3 was 3.9 percent above the February 2015 level (Table 7). The index is up 9.9 percent in five years and up 11.9 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.5 percent in February from its January level (Table 8). The combined TSI February 2016 level of 122.6 was 1.8 percent above the February 2015 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 11.4 percent in five years and up 10.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.