3.5 Material Solution Analysis (MSA) Phase

3.5 Material Solution Analysis (MSA) Phase
     3.5.1 Manufacturing Task: Evaluate Manufacturing Feasibility
     3.5.2 Inputs
     3.5.3 Key Activities
     3.5.4 Technical Reviews
          3.5.4.1 Initial Technical Review (ITR)
          3.5.4.2 Alternative Systems Review (ASR)
     3.5.5 Outputs
     3.5.6 Other Considerations
          3.5.6.1 Develop the Technology Development Strategy (TDS)
          3.5.6.2 Develop Manufacturing Strategy
          3.5.6.3 Estimate Manufacturing Cost
          3.5.6.4 Manufacturing Technology (ManTech) Investments

One of the major accomplishments of the Material Solution Analysis (MSA) Phase is to evaluate manufacturing feasibility or to answer the question "can you build it?"  The MSA Phase presents the first real opportunity to influence systems design and begin planning for production by balancing technology opportunities and current practices against cost, schedule and performance.  User capabilities need to be expressed in terms of key performance parameters (KPPs) and other quantifiable parameters to include:

• System performance requirements to meet mission requirements; and
• The full range of sustainment requirements (materiel availability, production capability, reliability, maintainability, logistics footprint, supportability criteria, etc.) needed to meet system sustainability and affordably over the life cycle.

The MSA Phase is a trade study to identify materiel solutions to address gaps in capability based on an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA).  The AoA is done independently from the program management office and forms the basis for selecting the recommended approaches for material solutions. At the close of the AoA, the program office takes ownership of the approach and conducts additional engineering analysis to support the development of the Technical Development Strategy (TDS) and the Systems Engineering Plans (SEP). Manufacturing considerations should be a component of the AoA guidance, addressed in the AoA study plan and included in the TDS and SEP.

Systems engineering analysis provides the PM with the technical basis for Technology Development phase execution, including the identification of critical technology elements (CTEs) and manufacturing process areas requiring risk-reduction efforts. In particular, during Material Solution Analysis the Integrated Product Team (IPT) performs the following activities:

• Develop initial view of system requirements and system design concepts: The team begins its engineering analysis, conducts trade studies, and formulates possible system solutions. The analysis effort develops preliminary system functional and performance requirements.
• Identify critical technology elements (CTEs) and conducts a technology maturity assessment of the hardware and software options with a focus on the CTEs.
• Conduct an assessment of manufacturing feasibility.

The program manager should ensure that a manufacturing feasibility assessment is accomplished as a part of the AoA. The feasibility estimate determines the likelihood that a proposed material solution can be produced using existing manufacturing capabilities while meeting quality, production rate and cost requirements.

The feasibility analysis involves the evaluation of:

• Producibility of the potential design concepts;
• Critical manufacturing processes and special tooling development which will be required;
• Test and demonstration required for new materials;
• Alternate design approaches within the individual concepts; and.
• Anticipated manufacturing risks and potential cost and schedule impacts.

The feasibility assessment identifies the manufacturing risks incurred in selecting a particular design.  The assessment forms, in part, the basis for moving into the Technology Demonstration phase.  Without this assessment, the program manager may find that the program cannot be accomplished within the defined cost and schedule thresholds as a result of incompatibilities between the system design and the manufacturing technology available to execute it. Milestone phase objectives and manufacturing considerations are outlined in Figure 3.4.

Figure 3-4  Manufacturing Considerations during the MSA Phase

Appropriate documentation for manufacturing considerations should be incorporated into the Technology Development Strategy (TDS) and Systems Engineering Plan (SEP).

The following information sources provide important inputs to the MSA phase systems engineering process and  should contain manufacturing considerations:

• Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Plan; and
• Alternative Maintenance and Sustainment Concept of Operations.  Many maintenance and sustainment considerations are impacted by manufacturing/production capabilities.

Key activities during the MSA phase include the following: 

Top-Down Design:

• Interpret User Needs;
• Analyze Operational Capabilities and Environmental Constraints;
• Develop Concept Performance (and Constraints) Definition and Verification Objectives;
• Decompose Concept Performance into Functional Definition and Verification Objectives; and
• Decompose Concept Functional Definition into Concept Components and Assessment Objectives.

Bottom-up Realization:

• Develop Component Concepts (manufacture and assemble), Enabling/Critical Technologies, Constraints, and Cost/Risk Drivers;
• Analyze and Assess Enabling/Critical Components Versus Capabilities;
• Analyze and Assess System Concept Versus Functional Capabilities;
• Analyze and Assess Concept and Verify System Concept's Performance; and
• Analyze and Assess Concepts Versus Defined User Needs and Specified Environmental Constraints.

There are many opportunities during this process for manufacturing/QA managers to make a difference.  For example, translating requirements into design solutions can be improved by using a tool called "Quality Function Deployment."  Trade Studies are a normal part of both the Top-Down Design and Bottom-up Realization process during these trade studies it would be helpful if you used Design of Experiments to identify the key or critical factors that drive performance and affordability.  The implementation is the development of components (CTEs) and the identification of constraints and cost drivers.  Manufacturing/QA considerations should be a major part of implementation and include an assessment of current production capabilities and future requirements.  Any gaps in manufacturing capabilities needs to be identified as a risk, and time and resources set aside to mature these critical manufacturing processes.  Testing needs to include an assessment of the impact manufacturing variation on key characteristics has on performance, reliability, and affordability.  

Technical reviews are a major part of the systems engineering process and are conducted by members of the Integrated Product Team (IPT). These reviews serve to confirm:

• Major technical efforts within a specific acquisition phases have been conducted;
• Outputs of that acquisition phases have been achieved; and
• The program is ready to progress toward the next acquisition phase.

Technical reviews are an important tool for subject matter experts, like manufacturing managers, to assess, identify and mitigate risk early.  Each of these reviews will be discussed in greater detail in Chapter 12.

The ITR assesses the capability needs and materiel solution approach of a proposed program and verifies that the requisite research, development, test and evaluation, engineering, manufacturing, logistics, and programmatic bases for the program reflect the complete spectrum of technical challenges and risks. The success of the ITR depends, in part, on independent SME review of each of the identified cost drivers (engineering, manufacturing, logistics, test, etc.).

The ASR assesses the proposed materiel solutions to ensure that the one or more materiel solution(s) have the potential to be affordable, operationally effective and suitable, and can be developed to provide a timely solution to a need at an acceptable level of risk. The intent is to reduce technical risk, validate designs, validate cost estimates, evaluate manufacturing processes, and refine requirements. The ASR helps ensure that sufficient effort has been given to conducting trade studies that consider and incorporate alternative system designs and other technical considerations.

The following information sources provide important outputs to the systems engineering process supporting the MSA phase that should contain manufacturing considerations:

• System Safety Analyses (ensure a Preliminary Hazard List is completed for each system concept including hazardous materials used in production);
• Systems Engineering Plan (to include competitive prototype planning);
• Support and Maintenance Concepts and Technologies;
• Inputs to Technology Development Strategy, to include competitive prototype planning;
• Inputs to Analysis of Alternatives (AoA); and
• Inputs to Cost and Manpower Estimate.

The TDS must be approved for entry into the Technology Development Phase and guide efforts within established goals.  The TDS should include proposed exit criteria for the TD Phase and plans to support entry to the ensuing phase. TDS elements that should contain manufacturing considerations are summarized below: 

The manufacturing strategy is a subset of the overall acquisition strategy and can include considerations such as competition. Competition is a major contributor to reducing weapon system cost. If the program will be dual sourced, the early planning must take into account the strategy required to assure availability of capability and data and data rights for dual sourcing. New manufacturing technologies, if required by the system concept, will require specific plans for development, proofing and transition of the technology to the eventual producer. This effort will necessitate close coordination with the service manufacturing technology organization to assure compatibility of the technology development schedule with the system development schedule.  Production rates and quantities also play a major role in driving manufacturing cost as they will drive decisions on what production processes to use, types of tooling required, make-buy decisions, etc.  The best strategy is one that has a gradual build to rate production and then hold production at a steady state for a period of time without fluctuating.

Detailed manufacturing cost estimates cannot be developed during the MSA phase, but cost drivers can be identified based on proposed materials and process selections that may be inherent in the proposed material solutions. In addition, producibility cost can be assessed and investments in manufacturing technologies can be estimated.  These estimates can be used to help develop the Cost Analysis Requirements Document (CARD) when required, or for other cost estimates when a CARD is not required.

Cost estimates will be used to evaluate affordability and in establishing initial program thresholds. In most cases, the estimates will be developed through the use of statistically based cost estimating relationships or by comparison of the proposed systems with similar systems whose costs are known. The cost estimates will be used for evaluating and selecting system concepts for entry into the Technology Development phase.

The objective of the ManTech program is to improve performance while reducing acquisition cost by developing, maturing and transitioning advanced manufacturing technologies. The manufacturing feasibility assessment should identify high risk manufacturing process areas that may require investments in ManTech or other programs. These investments must be identified early so that these manufacturing capabilities will be matured on time to support rate production.