Forecasting

The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is on the move. Spread among humans by mosquitoes, and spread across geographic boundaries by humans who travel, the virus—which causes a debilitating illness—is now expanding through the Western Hemisphere. Governments and health organizations could take proactive steps to limit its spread if they had accurate forecasts of where and when it would appear. DARPA’s CHIKV Challenge asks teams to create models to deliver such forecasts for all of the countries and territories in the Americas and the Caribbean over a six-month period starting in September 2014.

Imagine the workplace during flu season. Some people get sick and display clear symptoms—a warning sign to coworkers to avoid contact and for that individual to stay home. Others are infected, but never or only belatedly exhibit the tell-tale signs of sickness, meaning they can infect coworkers without knowing it. If healthcare professionals had the ability to test in advance whether a person is likely to spread a disease following infection, they could recommend specific measures to treat the person or limit exposure and perhaps keep an outbreak from growing into an epidemic or pandemic.

DARPA’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO) is hosting a Proposers Day to provide information to potential proposers on the objectives of the upcoming Prometheus program. The program aims to discover host prognostic biomarkers of acute respiratory infection that predict if a person will become contagious after infection, but prior to the onset of symptoms. A key aspect of the program will be to characterize human immune responses at multiple time points during infection.

Military readiness and national security depend on the health and wellbeing of military servicemembers. The Department of Defense’s (DoD) cumulative investment in personnel comprises the second-largest share of the total defense budget. As such, DoD seeks advances in healthcare to ensure warfighters can operate at peak performance, and by focusing on prevention DoD may contain costs while enhancing readiness. In this context, the Prophecy (Pathogen Defeat) program will explore the evolution of viruses in the hopes of predicting viral mutations and ultimately developing drugs and vaccines in advance of need.

COL Matthew Hepburn, MC, USA joined DARPA as a program manager in 2013. He aims to address the dynamic threats of emerging infectious diseases with potential impact on national security.