Critical Threats | Critical Threats

Situation Update

Situation Update

Recent Publications

San Bernardino Shooting a Terrorist Attack with al Qaeda and ISIS Footprints

Frederick W. Kagan

The San Bernardino shooting of December 2, 2015 was a terrorist attack conducted by perpetrators inspired by the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and possibly linked with and inspired by al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda Electronic: A Sleeping Dog?

Eric Liu

Cyber warfare allows a small number of covert and dispersed individuals to inflict disproportionate damage on a much stronger adversary.The only hacking collective claiming affiliation with al Qaeda is al Qaeda Electronic, which was formed only this year and has shown limited and rudimentary capabilities.
Testimony: The Afghanistan Conundrum: How Should the US Approach the Rise of Insurgent Groups?

Frederick W. Kagan

Enemy groups are both multiplying and gaining strength in Afghanistan. The next American president will face multiple insurgent groups and a weakening Afghan security force, assuming that Afghanistan survives through the next US presidential election.
Russo-Turkish Tensions Since the Start of the Russian Air Campaign

Frederick W. Kagan

Russia and Turkey have long been at odds over Syria, with Moscow backing President Bashar al Assad and Ankara supporting the opposition to overthrow him. Tensions increased dramatically with the start of the Russian air campaign on September 30.

Featured Topics

The Russo-Iranian Military Coalition in Syria may be Deepening

The Russo-Iranian military coalition in Syria may be deeper than many have believed. The Iranian armed forces appear to be allowing Russian aircraft to use their military airfields in support of combat operations over Syria.

A Global Strategy for Combating al Qaeda and the Islamic State

Although the ongoing US-led airstrikes in Iraq and Syria demonstrate increased American resolve, the United States needs a new strategy to stop ISIS, al Qaeda, and affiliated groups: a counterinsurgency with ideological, security, diplomatic, economic, and political components.

Maps and Graphics

Update and Assessment: December 16, 2015

The Editors

The Critical Threats Project releases a weekly update and assessment on Iran and the al Qaeda network.
Update and Assessment: December 9, 2015

The Editors

The Critical Threats Project releases a weekly update and assessment on Iran and the al Qaeda network.

Daily News Brief

Iran News Round Up

December 16, 2015

President Hassan Rouhani stated that sanctions against Iran will be lifted by January 20.

Pakistan Security Brief

Gulf of Aden Security Review

December 16, 2015

Yemen: Geneva delegations agree to prisoner exchange; anti-al Houthi sources report rumored al Houthi ceasefire violations; pro-al Houthi sources report rumored coalition ceasefire violations. Horn of Africa: IED blats hits SNA convoy in Afgoi, Lower Shabelle region; al Shabaab attempts to attack passenger buses in Mandera County, Kenya; clan militiaman kills SNA commander in Beledweyne, Hiraan region.