Fantasy Basketball: What's up with John Wall?
Playing in a fast-paced, wide-open offense was supposed to benefit John Wall as much as anyone on the Washington Wizards , but that hasn't been the case through the season's first five weeks. Wizards' whip-quick point guard is off to a dreadful start to the season, shooting below 40.0 percent from the field for the first time in his career while averaging 7.6 assists per game, the lowest mark of his career as well.
The first question to ask is whether this new Wizards' offense should have benefited Wall. Playing at a faster pace is nearly always considered a good thing for Fantasy, but we also have to take into account the possibility that Wall might be more comfortable playing at a deliberate pace. He is a tremendous open-court athlete, but after playing at a below-average pace for the last three seasons, an adjustment period isn't totally unexpected. Perhaps Wall is like LeBron James and Chris Paul , to name just two examples of tremendous playmakers who have historically helmed a slower-than-expected offense.
One thing to take into consideration is how Wall's time of possession has dropped dramatically since last season. Wall is 11th in average time of possession per game, per Stats.NBA.com's player tracking data, at 6.2 minutes per game. Wall led the NBA in time of possession at a robust 8.2 minutes per game last season, and while some of that can be explained by a drop in total minutes played, it doesn't explain all of it. That kind of dropoff shouldn't have been unexpected in an offense where everyone is given the freedom to grab a rebound and take off up the floor with it, but the fact that Wall is averaging 15 fewer touches per game while the Wizards are averaging six more possessions per game is certainly a reason to be discouraged by his play.
Another aspect of the Wizards' offensive changes that could be impact his numbers are the increase in 3-pointers. The Wizards have gone from 28th in 3-point rate last season to 13th, with nearly 10 percent more possessions ending with a 3-pointer than a year ago.
That isn't a bad thing in and of itself -- as Randy Wittman finally realized, 3's are in fact worth more than 2's -- but it could lead to lower assist numbers in theory. Though 3-pointers are higher efficiency shots due to the extra point, taking more long-range shots could lead to an overall drop in field-goal percentage, which might explain some of Wall's dropoff in assists.
Looking more specifically at Wall's struggles, he is still shooting well at the rim, which is to be expected given the extra space in the paint he should have to operate. Much of his drop in shooting percentage coming from a slump in mid-range shooting. From 10 feet out to the 3-point line, Wall is shooting just 30.9 percent on 71 attempts; he shot 40.1 percent on those attempts last season. Given the gains Wall has made as a jump shooter in recent years, it isn't unreasonable to expect his shots to start falling with more regularity moving forward.
And that probably goes for his teammates as well. According to Stats.NBA.com, Bradley Beal , Otto Porter and Jared Dudley are a combined 34.3 percent on 3-pointers on passes from Wall. For a trio that shoots 39.2 percent on 3-pointers for their careers overall, things should get better for Wall moving forward in at least that regard.
In fact, Wall is still creating the third-most assist opportunities per game in the NBA despite the decrease in his touches, but has the lowest field-goal percentage on those assist opportunities among the top-10; just 46.9 percent of his assist opportunities have been converted into points, compared to 53.2 percent last season. Even when taking into account the fact that an increase in 3-pointers should lead to a lower field-goal percentage, Wall's teammates are producing fewer points per assist opportunity (1.16) than last season's (1.23). Given the weapons around him and the improved spacing within which they have to operate, it isn't unreasonable to expect better days ahead in this regard.
We might have underestimated how difficult it might be to implement a radically new offensive system and philosophy, and with the benefit of hindsight, Wall getting off to a slow start isn't totally surprising. The good news for those of you who invested heavily into Wall is there are reasons to be optimistic that things will get a lot better for him moving forward. Wall is simply too talented to keep playing this poorly, and the Wizards' offense almost has to improve from their current 27th ranking in points per 100 possessions.
Don't sell low on Wall if you have him, but if someone in your league is starting to panic -- and doesn't read this website -- trying to swoop in with a buy-low offer might be the best move you make all season.