Is Muhammad the most popular boy's name in Britain?

It’s a popular myth, and there’s good reason for it, that Muhammad is Britain’s most popular boy’s name.

Except that is apparently what the data presented by the website BabyCentre has revealed this morning. These numbers were widely reported, including by the Guardian (we have subsequently updated our news story to make clear that it is a survey and not official national statistics).

The BabyCentre.co.uk names are simply a sample based on 56,157 members of the site who gave birth in 2014. Reporting on this seems to have overlooked that there are comprehensive statistics available from official bodies, although only up to 2013. Those figures show Muhammad was the 15th most popular boys name in England and Wales and the 52nd most popular in Scotland.

The names chosen by a self-selecting group of parents will probably show more about the demographics of the users of that site than the overall trends.

Muhammad might become the most popular name in the country at some point. That’s less to do with immigration than cultural trends: over the last couple of decades most parents have sought out a wider variety of names for their children while Muhammad has remained a stalwart for those from Islamic backgrounds.

The proportion of the population that is Muslim is 4.8%, while the most popular boys name in England and Wales (Oliver) was given to just 1% of babies that year. Muhammad’s 15th place is a demonstration of the lower variance of names within the Muslim community compared to others.

The alternative take on this – that Muhammad tops the chart – was one given by the Daily Mail in their reporting of the official statistics earlier this year. Their reasoning was as follows:

When all the variations are added together, including Muhammad, Mohammed and Mohammad, the name comes out top with 7,445 counts.

If you do that though, it’s only fair to add together the variations of other names. For example, Oliver and Ollie (7,749) or Harry and Henry (9,136). We can only wonder why the Daily Mail didn’t.

It’s an easy story because there is a nugget of “truthiness” in it but as it stands, it’s not true – yet.

Update: BabyCentre’s press office have been in touch with a statement from Sarah Redshaw, the managing editor:

BabyCentre’s annual baby name data has been created to give an indication of naming trends across the UK, provided by our members. Currently this is based on 56,157 babies named this year. The top 100 boys’ and girls’ names charts combine names that sound the same but have different spellings, giving a measure of baby name popularity. We have found, in the past, that this is a good indicator of the ONS statistics that are released the following year.

When the day comes that Muhammad does reach the top of this list then we’ll let you know. For reference though, here is the actual list as it stands.