LUXURY NOW
HOW — AND WHERE — THE CHIC SET IS SPENDING IT IN 2015
(Would you like the good news first?)
by HOLLY HABER
Affluenza is so déclassé.
While the affluent haven’t stopped treating themselves to the finer things, they have yet to do it with the same abandon as before the crash of 2008. “The overwhelming trend is what I call austerity,” says Pamela Danziger, an expert on luxury-purchasing trends and founder of Unity Marketing in Stevens, Pennsylvania. “Today, affluent consumers with plenty of cash on hand are being much more selective, much more demanding and much more careful about what luxuries they buy — and how much they spend.” Unity surveys shoppers for its Luxury Consumption Index, which took a 12.3 point dive in October to 46.4 — its lowest level since it sank to 40 in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The top 2 percent of U.S. households reap annual incomes starting at $250,000, according to the U.S. Census. Yet those who just make that cut “feel very middle-class” and are spending accordingly, according to Unity’s research. The bulk of 2-percenters are shopping like HENRYs — marketingspeak for “high earners not rich yet” — who earn in the lesser range of $100,000 to $250,000 annually, Danziger says. They tend to shop less-premium brands, relatively speaking, such as Diane von Furstenberg and Michael Kors. Some Dallas retailers have capitalized on that trend in 2014: Witness Neiman Marcus expanding and packing merchandise into its Cusp department at NorthPark Center, and Stanley Korshak nearly doubling its Shak boutique and opening Men’s Shak. Cusp and Shak specialize in contemporary merchandise that typically retails for under $500. (“The Shak is growing faster than designer,” says Korshak owner Crawford Brock.)
At the same time, a handful of ultra-luxe heritage brands such as Louis Vuitton and Hermès have seen their U.S. fortunes rise along with the desire for authenticity and quality. Louis Vuitton reported that its U.S. sales rose 8 percent in the third quarter. The company also demonstrated its confidence by debuting its foundation’s showy new private art museum in Paris in October. The futuristic-looking concrete and glass structure was designed by starchitect Frank Gehry and cost a reported $135 million. Hermès cited “excellent” sales momentum in America at a press conference in August, according to Women’s Wear Daily. “Even when the economy was coming apart at the seams during the Great Recession, we have never seen customers trade down,” says Jim Gold, president and chief merchandising officer of Neiman Marcus Group. “They might have spent less on an absolute basis — two pairs of shoes instead of three, or eight instead of 10 — but once you are used to a certain level of quality and design, it’s very hard to go the other direction unless you can’t afford it.”
Lucky for Dallas merchants, the luxury business is better here than in many other places. At Neiman’s, sales growth in Texas exceeds the national average, according to Gold. And Brock reports that Korshak has been outperforming nearly all of the Forum Group, a coterie of 12 independent upscale retailers from coast to coast. The wealthy, though, are picky, seeking singular experiences and meaningful back stories.
At Forty Five Ten, shoppers are looking for versatility and paying more attention to provenance, says president and partner Brian Bolke. One example? “We’ve done phenomenal with Maiyet fine jewelry because the sourcing is so clean — the diamonds, the gold and how they take care of the artisans who work for them,” Bolke says. “It makes [customers]feel better about investing in it.”
Affluents increasingly shop online and via smartphone, siphoning revenue away from brick-and-mortar stores. Forty Five Ten began making up the difference last year by signing with farfetch.com, which provides select boutiques an electronic portal to customers worldwide. “Just as our own Dallas client may be buying from Net-a-Porter, we have people buying from Germany,” Bolke says. “It’s been a great equalizer.” He is enthusiastic about prospects for 2015, when Forty Five Ten will quintuple in size in a new location downtown. Others are not so sure. Danziger points to the end of quantitative easing (an alternative monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the economy when conventional methods have become futile) as a worry for investors and a poor showing of consumer spending in the third quarter with only 2.3 percent growth. Brock identifies plenty of distractions, including stock-market gyrations, the sudden slide in the price of oil and fear of ISIS and Ebola. “Going forward,” he says, “who knows.”
HOLLY HABER is a Dallas freelance journalist and the former Dallas bureau chief for Women’s Wear Daily.