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Amy's Terrorism Issues Blog

The Usefulness of Killing Leaders in Terrorist Networks

Sunday January 11, 2009

According to news reports, two Al Qaeda members were killed on New Year's Day by CIA directed unmanned airborne vehicles, commonly called "drones," on New Year's Day, in northwest Pakistan. Kenyan nationals Usama Al-Kini and Sheikh Ahmed Salim Swedan had long rap sheets that included substantial roles in planning bombings of U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998. Swedan is also said to have been responsible for the 2002 bombing of the Kikambala hotel in Kenya, which killed 12 Israeli tourists. Targeting programs led by Special Operations forces have reportedly accelerated the number of Al Qaeda leaders in northwest Pakistan, where Osama bin Laden is suspected of hiding.

The decision to target a group's leaders is based on the strategic calculation that it will weaken or even destroy the ability of a group to continue to execute attacks. This isn't necessarily true, though. Rather, it depends on how the organization is structured, and the relative role that a leader has in ensuring that an attack is executed.

In recent years, counterterrorism specialists have followed the broader intellectual trend of viewing organizations as horizontal networks rather than vertical hierarchies, whether these are workers in a firm, or members of a criminal or terrorist group. In a social network, the leader may not necessarily be the most important actor among those planning an attack. Networks are flat organizations, in which people are connected to others through different kinds of links (such as through kinship, or through membership in the same organization) with different degrees of strength and in different number.

scale free network

In such an organization, authority can be spread out among different people, so that removing any one of them does not disrupt the activities of the larger system. Alternatively, isolated cells of a network may operate quasi-autonomously and be only loosely linked to other cells in the larger organization. Al Qaeda, a collection of organizations that may be connected in name only, has been notable for its decentralized quality.

So, whether targeting of leaders is an effective strategy remains to be seen. Joby Warrick, reporting on the January 1 strike in Pakistan for the Washington Post, notes that "Terrorism experts have cautioned that al-Qaeda has shown surprising resilience, quickly replacing leaders who are killed or captured." Stratfor, a private intelligence firm, makes the case that the "core" group associated with bin Laden has been "marginalized" and predicts that in 2009, "the bulk of physical attacks will continue to be conducted by regional jihadist franchise groups, and to a lesser extent by grassroots jihadists." In the view of Stratfor's analysts, groups will continue to organize attacks as long as the "ideology of jihadism" survives.

In my own view, it is questionable whether the organizing principle of "jihadi ideology" is useful to understand and counter various groups in different parts of the world, from Yemen to East Africa, to North Africa, to the Middle East and Central Asia. These different conflicts may assert jihadist intentions, but they are rooted in very different historical and political soil. Continuing to view them in meaningful relationship to bin Laden's Al Qaeda is a quiet way of perpetuating the idea that there is a central organization with a unified head, and tends to foreclose looking at the local circumstances of different small wars.

Image courtesy of Transportation Security Authority

UK Grants Police Hacking Rights

Monday January 5, 2009
computer

The polite term for it is "remote searching," and British police and intelligence services are allowed to do it without a warrant, according to a report issued by the London Times. In fact, the ability to legally conduct such searches has existed since the mid-1990s, but has come to light anew following a Brussels edict permitting EU police access to UK computers as well.

It allows police or MI5 officers who may be hundreds of miles away to examine covertly the hard drive of someone’s PC at his home, office or hotel room.

Material gathered in this way includes the content of all e-mails, web-browsing habits and instant messaging.

Under the Brussels edict, police across the EU have been given the green light to expand the implementation of a rarely used power involving warrantless intrusive surveillance of private property. The strategy will allow French, German and other EU forces to ask British officers to hack into someone’s UK computer and pass over any material gleaned.

Human rights defenders and some parliament members are outraged about the latitude of the plan. In the United States, the government can legally check citizens' computers under some specific circumstances.

One of these includes border crossings, where Department of Homeland Security police do not have to offer a reason for hauling away computers, cell phones or other electronic devices.

Photo: Getty Images

Bush Leaves Behind Legal Legacy

Friday December 26, 2008

David G. Savage has a sharp article in the Sun Sentinel online about the legal legacy President Bush will leave behind. Bush's ability to get past controversy over various legal measures installed after the September 11 attacks may have substantial consequences long into the future, as Savage points out.

And because of the administration's successful defense of such policies, they will not only be a part of Bush's historical legacy but will likely remain available for his successors to deal with as they choose. Even if Barack Obama rejects or sharply modifies Bush's positions, the precedent will remain for future chief executives.

Hidden amid highly controversial legal shifts about issues such as domestic surveillance and the treatment of detainees are post-9/11 laws quietly enacted throughout the United States modifying--and broadening--the definition of terrorism. To wit, two New Haven, Connecticut high school students who planted a hoax bomb threat letter were charged with an "act of terrorism" in mid-December. Granting that such notes do threaten violence presumably with the intention to terrorize, the application of the law in this instance seems to outstrip the scope of the crime.

NORAD Santa Surveillance Goes Live Today

Wednesday December 24, 2008


On Christmas Eve, 1955, a young Colorado Springs resident dialed a phone number advertised by Sears Roebuck in a local newspaper that promised to connect him to Santa Claus. Instead, he reached Col. Harry Shoup at what is now called the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

“I’ll never forget it … the red phone rang, and it’s either the Pentagon calling or the four star general, General Partridge. So I picked it up and said, “Yes, sir, this is Col. Shoup… Sir? This is Col. Shoup … I said, Sir, can you read me alright?” "Are you really Santa Claus?" And I looked around [at] my staff and said, “Someone’s playing a joke on me and this isn’t funny.” I say, “Would you repeat that please?” “Are you really Santa Claus?” I knew then there was some screw up in the phones.

As befit a Cold War officer, Shoup readily agreed to check radar systems for signs of the famous man in a red suit.

Half a century later, NORAD continues the tradition of tracking Santa, but now it's all done in 21st century style. Streaming video, "Santa Cams," Google Maps and Google Earth (and Google Analytics, to watch the watchers) will all play a part in following the gift giving journey.

Santa's journey can be followed on the Web at the Norad tracks Santa website in seven languages including, for the first time this year, Chinese. Live tracking will begin at 11 a.m. Greenwich mean time (6 a.m. Eastern Standard Time) on December 24. You can also call 1-877-HINORAD or email noradtrackingsanta@gmail.com

For more on Santa, see About.com's Guide to Immigration Issues, where Jennifer McFadden assesses Santa's citizenship status.

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