Finance

Completed Research

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Assessment

Fuel taxes are the primary source of funding for state and federal transportation programs and have been for well over 80 years. However, the long term viability of this revenue source is in question, and many states are looking at funding alternatives to the fuel tax. Among the most promising are fees directly related to road use. This report summarizes recent efforts at the state level to research and, in one case, implement road user charging systems as a replacement for the fuel tax. This report also presents a brief overview of recently filed federal legislation related to road user charging and discusses a few collaborative multistate initiatives.

Link to Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Assessment

Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecast

alternate_fuel infographic large

This report provides a summary of recent trends in the development of alternative fuel technologies and factors impacting their adoption by the passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle fleets. Researchers relied on government, academic, and private-sector resources in compiling this report. This report also discusses the potential revenue impacts to the State of Texas with a specific focus on how alternative fuel technology adoption could affect long-term state fuel tax revenues. This effort supports estimations of fuel tax revenue using the TRENDS revenue estimation tool. Finally, this report includes summary information and discussion on federal, state, and local incentives aimed at encouraging alternative vehicle technology development, deployment, and adoption.

Link to Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecast

Texas Toll Road Primer

The purpose of this research is to provide the Texas Legislature and other elected officials with a comprehensive summary of toll roads from a financial and operational perspective. Findings from this research will aid in the determination of what future policies might be needed, as well as potential funding opportunities for needed infrastructure investment within Texas.

Link to Texas Toll Road Primer

Economic Impact Analysis and Revenue Projection Modeling (TRENDS and TREDIS)

Updated the TRENDS revenue estimation tool, which provides policy makers with forecasts through 2040 based on a user-defined level of transportation investment. This effort incorporated new features to the model and explored methods to capture changes in travel behavior and vehicle technology. The current population scenarios were expanded to include scenarios based on ethnicity and age. In addition, the TREDIS model was maintained to perform benefit-cost analyses and estimate economic impacts and traveler benefits for various improvement scenarios.

Link to Economic Impact Analysis and Revenue Projection Modeling (TRENDS and TREDIS)

Public-Private Investment Models for Roadway Infrastructure

The report provides an objective assessment of the benefits and limitations of highway public-private partnership (P3) projects around the U.S. and Canada, and an analysis of their application in a Texas context. Specifically, this report reviews: the history of P3s and their use, P3 best practices, necessary conditions for successful partnerships as well as impediments to success, existing relevant Texas statutes and administrative procedures, and possible considerations to increase P3 use in the future. While P3s can offer alternative methods that leverage existing transportation dollars, report authors recognize that P3s constitute only part of the solution to addressing Texas infrastructure challenges.

Link to Public-Private Investment Models for Roadway Infrastructure

Innovative Finance: Strategic Research Project

This study helped bring clarity and structure to the multitude of different infrastructure funding strategies that are now being used. It describes key elements of several different funding philosophies and discusses current trends in the funding policy.

Link to Innovative Finance: Strategic Research Project

Assessing the Cost of Construction Project Delays

This report provided a methodology for, and an estimate of, the financial, mobility and economic impacts that construction project delays can have. It also provides an analysis of where in the planning, design and construction phases the delays most frequently occur.
Note: Starting at page 311 (PDF page 325) in the document linked below:

Link to Assessing the Cost of Construction Project Delays

Models

Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS)

The TRENDS model provides a comprehensive revenue estimating and financial forecasting tool for the state and metropolitan planning organizations across Texas. The model was developed and is maintained by TTI. The Institute also provides training and technical support for users.
Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS)

Research in Progress

P3 and Traffic Operations Data

In Texas, roadway congestion has continued to increase over the last 20 years as demand has outgrown capacity, especially during peak periods. In response to this growth, traffic managers turn to traffic operations strategies and systems to manage crashes, congestion, and emergencies occurring on the road systems. This project seeks to determine whether and how the Texas legislature can use legislation to optimize the use of public-private partnerships (P3) in support of the development and operation of roadway systems using active traffic management (ATM) strategies. Examples of ATM strategies are the use of real-time sensors embedded in roadways to indicate to DOTs where traffic congestion is occurring and then use overhead signal gantries to convert shoulders into lanes which can instantly add capacity to reduce congestion.

Traveler's Value of Time and Reliability as Measured on Katy Freeway

The benefits derived from transportation investments are often dominated by the value of travel time savings. But studies are showing the value of travel time reliability to be nearly as much as the value of time. This project uses an extensive dataset of Houston I-10 Katy Freeway travelers to explore how travelers are really valuing travel time savings and reliability offered by managed lanes. This research improves our understanding of the value travelers place on managed lanes and thus helps policy makers weigh investments for future projects offering travel reliability.

Methodologies Used to Estimate and Forecast Vehicle Miles Traveled

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) calculations are used to forecast future revenues and are impacted by many factors, not limited to economic, environmental, and population variables. This research examines and assesses the methodologies currently used to estimate and forecast VMT. Researchers are: determining the state of the practice in Texas; identifying the various models and variables used to conduct such calculations; and proposing a methodology and system for forecasting VMT that benefits a wide array of users.

Regional Mobility Authorities: Where Are They Now?

A Regional Mobility Authority (RMA) is an independent local government agency authorized by state statute (Chapter 370, Transportation Code) with the primary functions of transportation project development, finance, and implementation. RMAs were authorized by the Texas Legislature and voters approved a constitutional amendment in 2001. Today there are nine RMAs across the state. The purpose of this research is to assess both the history and future of RMAs in terms of project implementation, finance, mobility strategies and the various approaches used by RMAs in transportation project development. The project will examine the role of RMAs with respect to MPOs, rural planning organizations (RPOs), and local governments. The project will also highlight RMA best practices, barriers and constraints, and present findings based on the assessment.

Transportation Reinvestment Zones

Legislation enacted in 2007 created Transportation Reinvestment Zones (TRZ), a tool that allows local governments to raise funds to help pay for transportation improvements using the property tax mechanism. Legislation passed in subsequent legislative sessions has made significant changes to law, facilitating the use of the tool by local governments. This project is: 1) identifying and summarizing the changes in the TRZ legislation that have been enacted since the law’s inception; 2) assessing the extent to which local governments have pursued TRZ implementation and identifying lessons learned; and 3) identifying impediments to implementation and findings to improve the current TRZ legal framework. The research is also updating the 2008 TTI-developed modeling tool used to assist in the analysis of TRZ value capture potential.

Economic Impact Analysis and Revenue Projection Modeling (TRENDS and TREDIS)

Ongoing updates are made to the TRENDS and TREDIS models as new data is gathered and analyzed.

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Testimony to the Texas Legislature

David Ellis Testimony August 5, 2014

Testimony before the House Select Committee on Transportation Funding, Expenditures and Finance, projecting potential additional revenue which could be generated by a 5 cent per gallon increase in the state motor fuels tax, and projecting the potential effect of assigning the state sales tax to motor fuel in lieu of the current motor fuels tax.
Download the Testimony

Ginger Goodin Testimony August 5, 2014

Testimony before the House Select Committee on Transportation Funding, Expenditures and Finance, addressing the topic of a Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) fee as a potential transportation funding replacement to the fuel tax.
Download the Testimony

David Ellis Testimony June 23-24, 2014

Testimony before the Senate Transportation Committee, regarding comprehensive development agreements and design/build project delivery methods. Testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Transportation Funding, Expenditures and Finance, presenting estimates of additional new construction and associated maintenance needed annually until 2030 under two scenarios; also, information on transportation funding options and the state’s toll road network.
Download the Testimony

David Ellis Testimony May 6, 2014

Testimony before the House Select Committee on Transportation Funding, Expenditures and Finance, addressing estimates of additional new construction and associated maintenance needed annually until 2030.
Download the Testimony

David Ellis Testimony Feb. 12, 2013

Testimony regarding: 1) The current status of highway transportation infrastructure in Texas; 2) projecting transportation needs in the state; 3) potential funding solutions for transportation infrastructure in the future.
Download the Testimony

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Area Leader

portrait of David Ellis, Ph.D.

David Ellis, Ph.D.

Dr. Ellis is a research scientist at the Texas A&M Transportation Institute and manager of the Infrastructure Investment Analysis Program. He received his undergraduate degree in agricultural economics (1979), a master's in urban planning (1990) and a doctorate in urban and regional science (1995) from Texas A&M University. He has 34 years of experience in transportation economics and finance, demographics, the economic impacts of transportation investment, and tax policy.

His recent work at TTI includes research on transportation supply, demand and finance, transportation tax policy, modeling and forecasting fuel tax and other transportation revenue sources, benefit/cost analysis of transportation improvements, and the effect of fuel price changes on vehicle miles traveled.

Dr. Ellis is invited frequently to testify before the Texas Legislature on topics related to transportation finance, tax policy and revenue forecasting and has been invited on multiple occasions to provide briefings for legislative and congressional staff on the economic impact of infrastructure investment. He has also consulted on multiple occasions with transportation officials in the People's Republic of China, the World Bank and other states on topics related to tax policy and the relationship between transportation and the economy.

Prior to returning to Texas A&M to work for TTI he was a lobbyist in Austin, representing a number of clients in the construction materials industry before the Texas Legislature and various state boards and agencies. Following that, he served as director of research for the Texas Department of Commerce. In that capacity he also served as director of research for both the Strategic Economic Policy Commission and the Rural Economic Development Commission.

Research in Progress

Private Investment Models for Highway Infrastructure

Email  ·  Tel: 979-845-6165

Key Researchers

portrait of Rafael Aldrete

Rafael Aldrete

Research in Progress

· Transportation Reinvestment Zones

Email  ·  Tel: 915-532-3759

portrait of Richard “Trey” Baker

Richard “Trey” Baker

Research in Progress

· Update Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecast
· Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Concept Assessment

Email  ·  Tel: 512-407-1113

portrait of Mark Burris

Mark Burris

Research in Progress

· Traveler's Value of Time and Reliability as Measured on Katy Freeway

Email  ·  Tel: 979-845-9875

portrait of Brianne Glover

Brianne Glover

Research in Progress

· Methodologies Used to Estimate and Forecast Vehicle Miles Traveled
· TRENDS

Email  ·  Tel: 979-458-0919

portrait of John Overman

John Overman

Research in Progress

· Regional Mobility Authorities: Where Are They Now?

Email  ·  Tel: 817-462-0516

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