National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
AXUS74 KEWX 131647
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-271700-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...

RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS CALLING
FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS GREATER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR LATE FALL AND INTO THE
WINTER.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS CALLING FOR AN ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) WEAK EL NINO. THE EL NINO PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE FALL AND WINTER. WITH THE
DEVELOPING EL NINO PATTERN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE
TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN GOING INTO EARLY FALL...THEN A WETTER
PATTERN FOR LATE FALL AND THROUGH WINTER.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 11TH AND ISSUED ON
SEPTEMBER 13TH SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN
MODERATE (D1) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS.
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 77 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). EIGHT PERCENT OF THE STATE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY MODERATE TO ACROSS THE REGION. WHEN
RAINFALL IS OBSERVED THEN THE FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY DECREASE.
AS OF SEPTEMBER 12...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 22 COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE ATASCOSA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWEL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL..
KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE... VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON AND ZAVALA COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY BANDERA...BASTROP...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...AND REAL COUNTIES
CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE SEPTEMBER 12 KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI
VALUES OF 500 TO 600 ACROSS BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES AND 600 TO
800 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON SEPTEMBER 11TH INDICATED...CONDITIONS REMAINED HOT
AND DRY WITH NO RAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS.
SOME PECAN GROWERS WERE HARVESTING EARLY THIS YEAR. CROWS WERE A
PROBLEM IN SOME ORCHARDS. THE CORN AND COTTON HARVESTS CONTINUED.
PASTURES AND RANGELAND FURTHER DECLINED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

ALL LOCATIONS HAVE REMAINED DRY. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2012 TO MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 12, 2012
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2012      NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       26.01       23.44       +2.57         111%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   28.71       21.58       +7.13         133%
SAN ANTONIO        29.05       22.24       +6.81         131%
DEL RIO             9.82       14.48       -4.66          68%

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS
IS 0.97 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.97 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 87.9 DEGREES. THIS IS 5.0 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.9 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
NO RAIN. THIS IS 1.30 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.30 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR
SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 84.2 DEGREES. THIS IS 2.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 82.2 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS
1.35 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.35 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 85.5 DEGREES.
THIS IS 2.9 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.4 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS 1.07 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.07
INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 82.4 DEGREES. THIS IS
2.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.3 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE BEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED SEPTEMBER 12TH AND VALID SEPTEMBER 20TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER
26TH IS SHOWING STRONGER TRENDS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND TRENDS TOWARDS NEAR EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2012 THROUGH DECEMBER
2012...CREATED ON AUGUST 16TH IS INDICATING TRENDS TOWARDS
NEAR EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON SEPTEMBER 20TH.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECLINE.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY SHORT AND LONG TERM
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES ARE SHOWING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) FLOWS ACROSS THE UPPER GUADALUPE...LOWER
COLORADO AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE LOWER GUADALUPE AND NUECES
BASINS WERE REPORTING BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10 TO 24 PERCENT).
OTHER BASINS ACROSS THE REGION WERE SHOWING FLOWS IN THE NORMAL
RANGE (25 TO 75 PERCENT).

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 13TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS. LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO FALL AGAIN DUE TO
REDUCED INFLOWS AND HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2            999.7           -64.5
CANYON LAKE         909              901.8            -7.2
LAKE TRAVIS         681              634.1           -46.9
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              993.7           -26.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              776.8           -14.2
LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1086.3           -30.7

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) REMAINS IN STAGE 3 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. ONCE A RESTRICTION IS IN PLACE...THAT RESTRICTION
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR 30 DAYS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AQUIFER LEVEL. STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
CITIZENS OF THE CITY.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER WAS READING 638.0 FEET AS OF SEPTEMBER 13TH.
THIS IS 23.5 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR
SEPTEMBER WHICH IS 661.5 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL IS 2.3 FEET BELOW
THE LEVEL OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN SEPTEMBER 2011.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL
AND INCREASED USAGE. STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED
AT ANY TIME IF THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS REMAIN IN NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR AQUIFERS
WITHIN THE DISTRICT.

UVALDE...NEW BRAUNFELS...ALAMO HEIGHTS AND SAN MARCOS ARE IN
STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN AND KERRVILLE ARE CURRENTLY IN
STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS
THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND OCTOBER 4 2012 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
