To the dustbin of history

MOST countries must wait a generation or more to see a popular revolution against a democratically elected leader, a coup d’état by uniformed officers or a power struggle within a military junta. Burkina Faso lived through all three in the space of less than a week.

It started on October 28th with street protests against President Blaise Compaoré, a handsome former army officer who took power by force 27 years ago (before going on to win several elections after democratic reforms in 1991). The protests were sparked by Mr Compaoré’s attempts to lean on the parliament to lift a two-term limit on his time in office that he had rashly written into the constitution. Thousands of protesters thronged the streets of Ouagadougou, the capital, and burned down buildings including the parliament. Mr Compaoré declared a state of emergency before fleeing south to Ivory Coast in a heavily armed convoy.

But the saga was far from over. Before the protesters could celebrate their success a senior general, Honoré Nabéré Traoré, declared himself head of state on October 31st and flooded the streets with troops. Yet almost immediately he too lost his footing. A lieutenant-colonel, Yacouba Isaac Zida, the second-in-command at the presidential guard, challenged him and won the backing of other senior officers. Feeling robbed of their revolution, Burkinabe opposition groups once again took to the streets on November 2nd and faced the military in street battles during which at least one protester was shot dead.

African and Western governments have since lobbied the generals to hand power back to a civilian government and hold elections. They have promised to do both but it remains to be seen how meaningful such a transition would be. The opposition is splintered and state institutions are weak. By contrast, the military has been gobbling up resources for two decades and is likely to remain involved in running the country in one way or another. If anything, its motivation to do so has increased recently. New mineral finds mean that whoever is in charge will control growing mining revenues.

International interest in Burkina Faso, a landlocked country with a population of 17m, is high because it is a useful base for efforts to fight Islamic extremism in neighbouring states. The American and French armed forces have used it to keep an eye on Mali and Nigeria as well as the wider Sahel and Sahara regions. Mr Zida, the interim leader, received training from the American army, as did the leader of the most recent coup in Mali.

African leaders have another reason to pay attention to the Burkinabe spectacle. Term limits have emerged as a hot issue across the continent. That Mr Compaoré was felled by popular protests that arose because of his attempt to outmanoeuvre the constitution may give his peers pause for thought. A similar move in Senegal led to the ouster of the president at the polls in 2012. In Burundi the parliament disallowed a third presidential term by one vote earlier this year. It is a good sign that the issue of term limits comes up at all. The number of African leaders who can eschew even a pretence of democracy is shrinking. Moreover the concept of regularly changing the head of state—and in some cases the heads of federal states—is now firmly embedded in many polities.

Even so, it remains a fragile concept. The presidents of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have recently contemplated changing constitutions to give themselves extra time in office. The leaders of Benin, Congo-Brazzaville and Djibouti are also said to be entertaining the same idea. Many take their cue from the leaders of Chad and Uganda, not to mention Zimbabwe, who have managed to postpone retirement indefinitely.

Those who might wish to follow suit will now have to consider the prospect of what protesters in Burkina Faso call a “black spring”, in allusion to the Arab spring. Few want their slogans—“it’s over for the regime,” and “we do not want him again”—gracing placards elsewhere.