RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely Dem
2014 Key Races: PA-6 | PA-8
----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2012: President | Senate | PA-6 | PA-8 | PA-12
2010: Governor | Senate | House
2008: President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Wolf (D) | Corbett (R) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 10/13 - 10/27 | -- | -- | 51.0 | 40.3 | Wolf +10.7 |
Harper (R) | 10/26 - 10/27 | 680 LV | 3.8 | 50 | 40 | Wolf +10 |
Franklin & Marshall | 10/20 - 10/26 | 326 LV | 5.1 | 53 | 40 | Wolf +13 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 10/16 - 10/23 | 3111 LV | 3.0 | 52 | 39 | Wolf +13 |
Magellan (R) | 10/13 - 10/14 | 1131 LV | 2.9 | 49 | 42 | Wolf +7 |
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10/19/14 -- Republicans do seem to be coming home for Corbett in the closing days of this election, helping to halve what was once a 22-point gap. But that's probably not enough to help him get it done.
10/7/14 -- Corbett’s position has improved somewhat, but it is nowhere near enough to call this race competitive. Wolf remains favored to become the next governor of the state.
----------Race Preview----------
The 2010s have been rough on some of the most well-worn tropes in elections. The North Carolina Senate seat currently occupied by Richard Burr switches parties every six years (true since the 1970s) -- until it didn’t in 2010. Virginia always elected a governor from the opposite party of the one holding the White House (true since the 1970s) -- until it didn’t in 2013. And the Pennsylvania governorship switches parties every eight years. The latter has been true since 1954, when Pennsylvania elected only its fourth Democratic governor since the close of the Civil War.
But it looks as if that rule might not hold in 2014. In 2010, Attorney General Tom Corbett defeated Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Executive Dan Onorato by nearly 10 points. But cuts to education and ties to the Penn State sex abuse scandal have sapped Corbett’s popularity, and he is in dire shape in the polls against Democratic businessman Tom Wolf.
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Wolf (D) | Corbett (R) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 10/13 - 10/27 | -- | -- | 51.0 | 40.3 | Wolf +10.7 |
Harper (R) | 10/26 - 10/27 | 680 LV | 3.8 | 50 | 40 | Wolf +10 |
Franklin & Marshall | 10/20 - 10/26 | 326 LV | 5.1 | 53 | 40 | Wolf +13 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 10/16 - 10/23 | 3111 LV | 3.0 | 52 | 39 | Wolf +13 |
Magellan (R) | 10/13 - 10/14 | 1131 LV | 2.9 | 49 | 42 | Wolf +7 |
Quinnipiac | 9/30 - 10/5 | 907 LV | 3.3 | 55 | 38 | Wolf +17 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 9/20 - 10/1 | 3283 LV | 2.0 | 50 | 41 | Wolf +9 |
Mercyhurst University | 9/15 - 9/24 | 479 RV | 4.5 | 43 | 28 | Wolf +15 |
Franklin & Marshall | 9/15 - 9/22 | 231 LV | 6.4 | 57 | 37 | Wolf +20 |
Magellan (R) | 9/17 - 9/18 | 1120 LV | 2.9 | 49 | 40 | Wolf +9 |
Morning Call | 9/16 - 9/18 | 429 LV | 5.0 | 54 | 33 | Wolf +21 |
Quinnipiac | 9/3 - 9/8 | 1161 LV | 2.9 | 59 | 35 | Wolf +24 |
Harper (R) | 9/2 - 9/3 | 665 LV | 3.2 | 52 | 41 | Wolf +11 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 8/18 - 9/2 | 3560 LV | 2.0 | 50 | 39 | Wolf +11 |
Franklin & Marshall | 8/18 - 8/25 | 520 RV | 4.3 | 49 | 24 | Wolf +25 |
Magellan (R) | 7/30 - 7/31 | 1214 LV | 2.8 | 50 | 38 | Wolf +12 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 7/5 - 7/24 | 4150 RV | -- | 52 | 39 | Wolf +13 |
Franklin & Marshall | 6/23 - 6/29 | 502 RV | 4.4 | 47 | 25 | Wolf +22 |
Quinnipiac | 5/29 - 6/2 | 1308 RV | 2.7 | 53 | 33 | Wolf +20 |
PPP (D) | 5/30 - 6/1 | 835 RV | 3.4 | 55 | 30 | Wolf +25 |
Rasmussen Reports | 5/27 - 5/28 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 51 | 31 | Wolf +20 |
Quinnipiac | 2/19 - 2/24 | 1405 RV | 2.6 | 52 | 33 | Wolf +19 |
Quinnipiac | 12/11 - 12/16 | RV | -- | 44 | 37 | Wolf +7 |
PPP (D) | 11/22 - 11/25 | 693 RV | 3.7 | 44 | 32 | Wolf +12 |
Quinnipiac | 3/6 - 3/11 | RV | -- | 39 | 39 | Tie |
PPP (D) | 3/8 - 3/10 | 504 RV | 4.4 | 42 | 33 | Wolf +9 |
PPP (D) | 1/4 - 1/6 | 675 RV | 3.8 | 29 | 41 | Corbett +12 |