Watching Iran’s leadership in the past week talk about the prospects for reaching a comprehensive agreement on their nuclear program by the November 24th deadline has been a bit confusing. Are they optimistic? Pessimistic? Somewhere in between? Regardless, their anxiety about reaching a deal is coming through loudly and the US should be listening.
Last week, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said talks could be extended past November. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s office released an intricate infographic detailing his nearly impossible 12 redlines for negotiations on October 12th via Twitter. President Hassan Rouhani went on television on October 13th to announce a deal was certain, to be followed the next morning by his Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, cautiously saying he does not expect a breakthrough in the current round of talks, but still hopes for a final agreement.
Some of this mixed messaging is not surprising. It may be intentional. In the midst of difficult negotiations, you don’t always show your hand publicly or box yourself in. Seeing that we are close to the critical deadline, the debates inside Iran about whether or how they should make more significant compromises are likely becoming a bit frantic as well.
As I have argued since the Joint Plan of Action was signed in Geneva last November, the Iranians came to the table because they could, and because they needed to. The Supreme Leader and President Rouhani are both intent on alleviating sanctions and eliminating the pretext for a US or Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Despite those objectives, Tehran still will not contemplate dismantling any of their uranium enrichment capacity or come clean on their suspected nuclear weapons research activities.
Perhaps the eagerness we are seeing from some in Tehran reflects a regime realizing it must reach an agreement even if the deal may be a more painful pill to swallow than expected. The recent substantial drop in oil prices may have convinced Rouhani and the senior leadership that their critical domestic economic reforms are in potential serious jeopardy and that sanctions relief must happen soon. That is not to mention the conflict with ISIS is also bleeding valuable resources. Fears of the Israelis starting a covert campaign against their nuclear facilities may have spooked the military.
Perhaps Western negotiators are playing tougher. Maybe they have finally recognized that they, rather than the Iranians, have had the stronger position all along and that there was never a need to coddle Rouhani in order to protect him from the Supreme Leader and hardliners inside the regime. (That last one may be more wishful thinking on my part).
Zarif is probably right. The regime believes there is a good chance for an eventual comprehensive agreement, but they may not get all the way there next month. And they really need a deal. With a more desperate Iran, this could be a real window of opportunity for the US to exert more leverage and get an agreement that can assure the world that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. Will we take it?
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