‹ Analysis & Projections
AEO2013 Early Release Overview
Release Date: December 5, 2012 | Full Report Release Date: Spring 2013 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2013)
2025 | 2035 | 2040 | |||||
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Energy and economic factors | 2010 | 2011 | AEO2013 | AEO2012 | AEO2013 | AEO2012 | AEO2013 |
Primary energy production (quadrillion Btu) | |||||||
Petroleum | 14.37 | 15.05 | 18.70 | 17.69 | 17.27 | 16.82 | 17.01 |
Dry natural gas | 21.82 | 23.51 | 29.22 | 26.91 | 32.04 | 28.60 | 33.87 |
Coal | 22.04 | 22.21 | 22.54 | 22.25 | 23.60 | 24.14 | 23.54 |
Nuclear/Uranium | 8.43 | 8.26 | 9.54 | 9.60 | 9.14 | 9.28 | 9.44 |
Hydropower | 2.54 | 3.17 | 2.86 | 2.99 | 2.90 | 3.04 | 2.92 |
Biomass | 4.05 | 4.05 | 5.27 | 6.26 | 5.83 | 9.07 | 6.96 |
Other renewable energy | 1.31 | 1.58 | 2.32 | 2.22 | 2.91 | 2.81 | 3.84 |
Other | 0.76 | 1.20 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
Total | 75.31 | 79.02 | 91.29 | 88.61 | 94.59 | 94.67 | 98.46 |
Net imports (quadrillion Btu) | |||||||
Liquid fuels and other petroleuma | 20.53 | 18.62 | 15.89 | 15.85 | 16.00 | 16.09 | 15.99 |
Natural gas (- indicates exports) | 2.69 | 2.02 | -1.56 | -0.76 | -2.53 | -1.33 | -3.55 |
Coal/other (- indicates export) | -1.58 | -2.32 | -3.02 | -1.75 | -3.32 | -2.32 | -2.95 |
Total | 21.64 | 18.31 | 11.31 | 13.34 | 10.14 | 12.44 | 9.49 |
Consumption (quadrillion Btu) | |||||||
Liquid fuels and other petroleuma | 37.76 | 37.02 | 36.87 | 36.58 | 35.82 | 37.70 | 36.07 |
Natural gas | 24.32 | 24.91 | 27.28 | 26.14 | 29.06 | 27.26 | 29.83 |
Coal | 20.81 | 19.66 | 19.35 | 20.02 | 20.09 | 21.15 | 20.35 |
Nuclear/Uranium | 8.43 | 8.26 | 9.54 | 9.60 | 9.14 | 9.28 | 9.44 |
Hydropower | 2.54 | 3.17 | 2.86 | 2.99 | 2.90 | 3.04 | 2.92 |
Biomass | 2.87 | 2.74 | 3.82 | 4.17 | 4.23 | 5.44 | 4.91 |
Other renewable energy | 1.31 | 1.58 | 2.32 | 2.22 | 2.91 | 2.81 | 3.84 |
Other | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.29 |
Total | 98.35 | 97.70 | 102.34 | 101.99 | 104.41 | 106.93 | 107.64 |
Liquid fuels (million barrels per day) | |||||||
Domestic crude oil production | 5.47 | 5.67 | 6.79 | 6.40 | 6.26 | 5.99 | 6.13 |
Other domestic production | 4.25 | 4.74 | 5.63 | 5.75 | 5.56 | 6.75 | 5.83 |
Net imports | 9.43 | 8.51 | 7.08 | 7.14 | 7.06 | 7.25 | 7.00 |
Consumption | 19.17 | 18.95 | 19.50 | 19.20 | 18.86 | 19.90 | 18.95 |
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) | |||||||
Dry gas production + supplemental gas | 21.40 | 23.06 | 28.65 | 26.34 | 31.41 | 27.99 | 33.21 |
Net imports (- indicates exports) | 2.60 | 1.95 | -1.58 | -0.79 | -2.55 | -1.36 | -3.55 |
Consumption | 23.78 | 24.37 | 26.87 | 25.53 | 28.71 | 26.63 | 29.54 |
Coal (million short tons) | |||||||
Production and waste coal | 1,098 | 1,108 | 1,134 | 1,134 | 1,194 | 1,231 | 1,195 |
Net exports | 64 | 96 | 124 | 71 | 136 | 94 | 123 |
Consumption | 1,049 | 999 | 1,010 | 1,063 | 1,058 | 1,137 | 1,071 |
Prices (2011 dollars) | |||||||
Brent spot crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 81.31 | 111.26 | 117.36 | -- | 145.41 | -- | 162.68 |
West Texas intermediate spot crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 81.08 | 94.86 | 115.36 | 135.35 | 143.41 | 148.03 | 160.68 |
Natural gas at Henry Hub(dollars per million Btu) | 4.46 | 3.98 | 4.87 | 5.75 | 6.32 | 7.52 | 7.83 |
Domestic coal at minemouth (dollars per short ton) | 36.37 | 41.16 | 52.02 | 44.97 | 58.57 | 51.59 | 61.28 |
Average electricity price (cents per kilowatthour) | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.8 |
Economic indicators | |||||||
Real gross domestic product (billion 2005 dollars) | 13,063 | 13,299 | 18,985 | 19,185 | 24,095 | 24,539 | 27,277 |
GDP chain-type price index (2005 = 1.000) | 1.110 | 1.134 | 1.429 | 1.424 | 1.713 | 1.758 | 1.871 |
Real disposable personal income (billion 2005 dollars) | 10,017 | 10.150 | 14.259 | 14,286 | 17,752 | 18,217 | 19,785 |
Value of industrial shipments (billion 2005 dollars) | 5,842 | 6,019 | 8,548 | 7,973 | 9,779 | 8,692 | 10,616 |
Primary energy intensity (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP) | 7.53 | 7.35 | 5.39 | 5.32 | 4.33 | 4.36 | 3.95 |
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons) | 5,634 | 5,471 | 5,501 | 5,552 | 5,607 | 5,758 | 5,691 |
aIncludes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based synthetic liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas plant liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel. -- = not applicable. Notes: Quantities reported in quadrillion Btu are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Both coal consumption and coal production include waste coal consumed in the electric power and industrial sectors. Sources: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A; and AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C. |