SPC AC 160500
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATE FRI
   EVENING WILL ENTER THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
   THE LOWER OH/MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
   WILL AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE NRN
   GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC
   BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
   PLACE OVER THE GULF STREAM. OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC...MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SAT MORNING INDICATE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST
   AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ABOVE A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS.
   HOWEVER...MUCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT A CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...AS THE BASAL
   PORTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES OVER GA/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON...COLD
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -30C AT 500 MB/ WILL FAVOR STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 100 J/KG. THIS MAY
   SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING PEAK
   HEATING. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
   ATLANTIC.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/16/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z