Ladbroke’s has odds.
I’ve been predicting Bhagwati forever, but I think since Krugman is thought of as a trade guy, they won’t give it to another one. That knocks out Dixit, Helpman and Grossman too.
Fama and French have been high on lists for a few years, but I’d have to say they’re out for a few years: there won’t be a finance prize until people once again realize that bubbles don’t mean markets are inefficient.
I’m not a micro person, but it’s been a while, so you’ve got to think that Jean Tirole, Dale Mortensen, Christopher Pissarides, Dale Jorgenson, Peter Diamond all have good chances.
I don’t think it’s a good year for macro, so Barro and Sargent are out, but I’d think that Chris Sims and Lars Peter Hansen might have a chance for econometrics.
I’ve heard Shiller mentioned, which I think is kind of lame, but perhaps paired with a real dark horse like Philip Cagan this might make sense: an early bubble theorizer with a bubble Cassandra.
If I had money I think I’d put it on Nordhaus. It’s starting to look like the panic has worn off about anthropogenic global warming, so at this point anointing a grown-up would be a useful message.
Also, there’s a chance for a dark horse from the younger international finance guys: Rogoff, Obstfeld and so on. I don’t think these guys really rank yet, but they’ve certainly been on radar screens the last year or so.
I still think Romer is too young.
Lastly, there’s the death watch list. Believe it or not, Harberger, Alchian, Demsetz, Shell and Uzawa have made it through another year. I’d be especially happy with an Alchian and Demsetz award.