Email
“The only sport I will vehemently wish you failure is hockey,” Georgiy Mamedov, the Russian ambassador to Canada told the Toronto Sun when asked about the Sochi Winter Olympics.
“We’ll let Team Canada’s talent speak for itself on the ice in Sochi,” the prime minister’s office replied. Who knows what Canada’s Hockey Author-in-Chief (aka the prime minister) really thinks about Canada’s chances. There is plenty of talent, to be sure… but there’s one spot on that ice where even Prime Minister Stephen Harper should perhaps be fretting.
Canada’s goaltending situation has already been fodder for plenty of speculation – and not just who will stand between the pipes when the puck drops in Sochi. That’s just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Because if we can’t field a good goalie for the Olympics, what are we? And if we can’t look down the line and see that, even if we can’t do it this year, but at least the next time around we’ll have so-and-so, perhaps there really is trouble afoot.
At the moment, Canada’s projected list of options looks like this (along with save percentage and goals against average as of last week):
Roberto Luongo (Vancouver Canucks) at .918 sv% and 2.28 GAA.;
Corey Crawford (Chicago Blackhawks) at .907 sv% and 2.47 GAA;
Carey Price (Montreal Canadiens) at .934 sv% and 2.08 GAA.
There were a few other names on that list earlier this fall, including Mike Smith (Phoenix Coyotes), Marc-Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh Penguins) and – God help us – James Reimer (Toronto Maple Leafs). You can see how it really starts to drop off. If any of the top three falls to long-term injury between now and the start of the Games, Canada would be facing a bit of a pickle.
But let’s put this in some context, before we go any further. Objectively, any country in the world would be thrilled to have among its first choices for goal a man who carried the team to gold at the last Games, and a guy who just won a Stanley Cup. However, the latter, Crawford, is untested on the Olympic ice, and Price has the tendency to be streaky – he’s been on a good one lately, but can still suffer a collapse as he did against the LA Kings last week. As for Luongo? Sure, he was great in the Olympics in 2010 but since then? Yeah. Does anyone have Ben Scrivens’ phone number (.943 sv%, 1.56 GAA)? We should call him.
Let’s give it even more context, starting with the Russians. Despite his legal problems, it looks like Semyon Varlamov will be the Russian starting no. 1. He’s got a .922 save percentage at the moment, which is good enough for 13th in the league. Backing him up will likely be Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s only posting a .909 save percentage so far this year, but holds potential. Is that combination good enough to beat the rest of the world?
What about the Americans? Ryan Miller (Buffalo Sabers) is still the most likely to start, but even if he doesn’t, Team USA has other options, including Cory Schneider (New Jersey Devils), who’s got a .920 save percentage but an impressive 1.89 GAA (4th best in the league). The biggest question mark remains around Jonathan Quick, who was placed on the Kings’ long-term injured reserve list so they could activate Matt Greene. Under normal circumstances, Quick would be a shoo-in for the Olympic team – perhaps even to start – but his absence from the ice since mid-November has put that in jeopardy. The USA might find that Ben Bishop (Tampa Bay Lightning) is a better option, given his current play (.929 sv%, 2.11 GAA), or perhaps Jimmy Howard (Detroit Red Wings) who’s at .910 sv% and 2.65 GAA. And hell, there’s always Tim Thomas.
While we’re at it, we might as well mention the others, because they’re hardly slouches in this department. Team Finland is looking good. Tuukka Rask is playing great hockey in Boston, sitting third in the league in both save percentage and goals-against (.935 and 1.87 respectively). Antti Niemi (San Jose Sharks) isn’t quite as strong at the moment with a .914 sv% and 2.28 GAA. Kari Lehtonen is likely the third choice for Finland, and he’s had a so-so season in Dallas, posting a .922 sv% and 2.39 GAA. He was also on the receiving end of a 6-2 bludgeoning by the Chicago Blackhawks earlier this week, which included a goal Team USA will likely note, from their forward Patrick Kane:
Top of the list for Sweden has to be NYR's Henrik Lundqvist, who will hopefully rebound fully after being pulled only a few minutes into Thursdsay night’s game against the Blue Jackets. Behind him in line is Robin Lehner (Ottawa Senators), but he’s only been active for 15 games so far this year, so remains somewhat untested. Over on Team Czech Republic, the toss-up will likely be between Ondrej Pavalec (Winnipeg Jets) and… someone else. Tomas Vokoun (Pittsburgh Penguins) is an unlikely starter after being sidelined for three to six months earlier this season for a blood clot issue – otherwise he would have been the most probable candidate. Finally, Slovakia could actually surprise again, backed most likely by some combination of Jaroslav Halak (St. Louis Blues) and Peter Budaj (Montreal Canadiens). Halak has been known to be unexpectedly amazing, so who knows?
Which, as I said earlier, is the context within which Canadians ought to panic – or not – about our goaltending situation. And, for now, we’re still okay up here. But again, what about down the road? If we can’t put good goalies on the ice – a point of pride in Canada for decades – what are we doing with this sport of ours?
Perhaps Sochi isn’t the panic point, but there is evidence to suggest Canadian goaltending is on the decline. The Globe and Mail recently hit the scare-o-meter to 11 (I kid. It’s recommended reading.) when James Mirtle noted that not only are the European goaltending systems now surpassing Canada’s, but that our boys are getting less and less ice time, overall.
“Canadian goalies played only 37 per cent of the available minutes in the NHL last season, down from 50 per cent four years ago, and 65 per cent in 2000. It’s a sharp enough decline that, on average, Canadians have appeared in 55 fewer NHL games a season, the equivalent of losing one of the 30 starting goalie jobs every year. [...] Between 2008-09 and 2012-13, the average Canadian goalie stopped 90.9 per cent of the shots they faced; non-Canadians stopped 91.4 per cent. In a position where every fraction of a percentage point matters over the length of a season, that’s a significant gap.”
So maybe the alarm bells ought to be ringing – if not in the prime minister’s office, then at least elsewhere in the country.
;