November 04, 2013
Great Expectations, Deferred
Still waiting for large, economy-wide job increases from the "shale revolution"
Continue reading "Great Expectations, Deferred"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:00 PM permalink | Comments (33) | digg this | reddit
November 03, 2013
Changing plans
Found this in my inbox this week:
UC has changed the menu of the health care plans that will be offered in 2014. Most notably, the three currently available PPO plans (Anthem Blue Cross PPO, Anthem Plus, and Anthem Lumenos) are being discontinued. They are replaced by Blue Shield Health Savings Plan and UC Care.
Continue reading "Changing plans"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:40 AM permalink | Comments (69) | digg this | reddit
November 01, 2013
Who Supports SNAP Cuts?
From reader Hans, commenting on the advisability of the reductions in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) expenditures, effective today:
You ax nothing from the recipient and everything from the tax slave...
Continue reading "Who Supports SNAP Cuts?"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:21 AM permalink | Comments (46) | digg this | reddit
October 30, 2013
SNAP Expenditure Reductions
(Updated with thoughts on "The Food Stamp President")
From CBPP (10/24):
The 2009 Recovery Act’s temporary boost in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits ends on November 1, 2013, which will mean a benefit cut for each of the nearly 48 million SNAP recipients — 87 percent of whom live in households with children, seniors, or people with disabilities.
Continue reading "SNAP Expenditure Reductions"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:00 PM permalink | Comments (86) | digg this | reddit
What Currencies Are Foreign Exchange Reserves Held In?
Following up on the dollar's status as an international currency (and how threats of default are not helpful), here is what we know about the dollar's role as a reserve currency.
Continue reading "What Currencies Are Foreign Exchange Reserves Held In?"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:53 AM permalink | Comments (5) | digg this | reddit
October 27, 2013
Why isn't inflation lower?
With so much slack in the economy and so many Americans still looking for jobs, why hasn't inflation been falling further? University of Texas Professor Olivier Coibion and Berkeley Professor Yuriy Gorodnichenko propose an answer in an interesting new research paper.
Continue reading "Why isn't inflation lower?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:47 AM permalink | Comments (47) | digg this | reddit
October 25, 2013
Data Paranoia Watch
Reader Anonymous (Oct 25, 7:34AM) cites approvingly a ZeroHedge "analysis" that asserts the BLS tweaked the data to make it look like there was a big shift in employment from part time to full time. Here's the ZeroHedge graph:
Continue reading "Data Paranoia Watch"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:39 PM permalink | Comments (84) | digg this | reddit
October 24, 2013
Better to Light a Candle...
Against a backdrop of people who are dismissive of data and expertise, it is refreshing to see analysts rise to the challenge of tracking the economy while the government shutdown delayed the release of critical macroeconomic data. From Jim Stock of the CEA, "Economic Activity during the Government Shutdown and Debt Brinksmanship":
Continue reading "Better to Light a Candle..."
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:05 PM permalink | Comments (16) | digg this | reddit
October 21, 2013
American Debt, Chinese Anxiety, Elaborated
Or, how the Tea Party is working hard to sabotage the dollar's role in global finance.
Continue reading "American Debt, Chinese Anxiety, Elaborated"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:00 PM permalink | Comments (79) | digg this | reddit
October 20, 2013
Estimates of the effects of the Fed's large-scale asset purchases
I attended a conference this weekend on lessons from the financial crisis for monetary policy. Among many interesting presentations, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams provided updated estimates on the effectiveness of large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance.
Continue reading "Estimates of the effects of the Fed's large-scale asset purchases"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:17 AM permalink | Comments (35) | digg this | reddit
October 16, 2013
The Aftermath
Update, 10/20 12PM PacificAfter the failure of the Republican effort to defund the Affordable Care Act, what is the net macro effect? According the IHS-Global Insight, and S&P [1], 0.6 ppts were shaved off 2013Q4 GDP growth (SAAR). S&P puts a dollar figure to this impact -- $24 billion in lost output.
Continue reading "The Aftermath"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:15 PM permalink | Comments (115) | digg this | reddit
October 14, 2013
Policy Uncertainty, October 14
Policy uncertainty, as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis index, is skyrocketing.
Continue reading "Policy Uncertainty, October 14"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:35 PM permalink | Comments (43) | digg this | reddit
October 13, 2013
An exit strategy for Republicans
Like many other Americans and observers around the world, I find the ongoing spectacle in Washington both perplexing and distressing. But having seen the President follow the advice of our mighty blog for choosing the next chair of the Federal Reserve, I feel emboldened now to recommend a course of action for the House Republicans.
Continue reading "An exit strategy for Republicans"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:23 AM permalink | Comments (71) | digg this | reddit
October 12, 2013
The State of Energy Markets in Mid-October
Who Knows?
Continue reading "The State of Energy Markets in Mid-October"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:31 PM permalink | Comments (9) | digg this | reddit
October 10, 2013
Flying Blind
The House Republicans' insistence on keeping the government closed means [0] that it is likely that we will be conducting macroeconomic policymaking with increasingly sparse or mismeasured data. If one doesn’t believe in expertise and information, then this is not a problem. If one believes that knowledge should inform decisionmaking, it is.
Continue reading "Flying Blind"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 02:30 PM permalink | Comments (40) | digg this | reddit
October 09, 2013
On weights and coding errors: odd coincidence or dress rehearsal?
Today Econbrowser is pleased to host this guest contribution from Professor Angus Deaton of Princeton University describing some of his experience with political attacks on academic research.
Continue reading "On weights and coding errors: odd coincidence or dress rehearsal? "
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:56 PM permalink | Comments (48) | digg this | reddit
Yellen it is
I applaud President Obama for choosing the best person to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. And I thank Governor Yellen for her willingness to serve the country.
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:48 AM permalink | Comments (20) | digg this | reddit
October 08, 2013
Movements in Short Term Treasurys
"Short-term U.S. debt prices tumbled again Tuesday amid rising investor concern about the prospect of a government-debt default, sending the yield on one-month U.S. Treasury bills to its highest level since the financial crisis."
Continue reading "Movements in Short Term Treasurys"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:18 PM permalink | Comments (21) | digg this | reddit
October 07, 2013
Measuring the Trilemma: Updated Indices
Jérémie Cohen-Setton has a nice review of the recent blog-literature regarding the trilemma on Bruegel:
Continue reading "Measuring the Trilemma: Updated Indices"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:10 PM permalink | Comments (4) | digg this | reddit
Don't Eat the Shrimp!
(Update 10/8, 9PM)
Or think twice ... thanks to the government closure.
From GovExec, "90 Percent of Seafood Imports Go Uninspected Due to Shutdown":
Continue reading "Don't Eat the Shrimp!"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:13 PM permalink | Comments (20) | digg this | reddit
(since 
