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I didn't want to have to write this post. After all, I didn't have a specific rooting interest outside of my lousy hometown team, and like many fans, I fell a little bit in love with the Pittsburgh Pirates and their rise to prominence this past season after years of misery and losing. Who doesn't enjoy a good underdog story?

We know the plot: Twenty consecutive losing seasons and the slide into irrelevance, the second-half collapses after strong starts in 2011 and 2012 ... and then a taste of glory in 2013, with 94 wins and the Pirates' first playoff appearance since 1992. The fans were loud and supportive, alive with baseball fever. The Pirates even nearly beat the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series, leading 2 games to 1 before scoring just one run in the final two games as Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright ended their dream season.

The Pirates were young and scrappy and had steadily improved -- from 57 wins to 72 to 79 to 94. This wasn't just a fluke season but another step in this process of building a dormant franchise into a winner. The season ultimately ended in disappointment, but now comes the excitement of 2014, when the Pirates take the next step.

Right?

Not necessarily.

Every playoff team believes it will return the next season. Maybe it changes the roster; maybe it goes with the same group. Either way, it will be back.

Of course, that's not what happens. Every year, at least one playoff team from the previous season has a big drop. It's the nature of the beast. Look at the 10 seasons from 2003 to 2012, with this list of the playoff team that declined the most the following season:

2003 Marlins: 91 wins to 83
2004 Dodgers: 93 wins to 71
2005 Cardinals: 100 wins to 83
2006 A's: 93 wins to 76
2007 Rockies: 90 wins to 74
2008 Cubs: 97 wins to 83
2009 Dodgers: 95 wins to 80
2010 Twins: 94 wins to 63
2011 Phillies: 102 wins to 81
2012 Giants: 94 wins to 76

So it happens. But what caused the declines? My guess would have been that these teams suffered the most in their run prevention. Pitchers are less consistent than hitters and more likely to be injured; bullpens can be great one year, mediocre the next.

As it turns out, the teams declined on offense and defense. Here is the list again, with each team's decrease in runs scored and increase in runs allowed:

2003 Marlins: -33 RS, +8 RA
2004 Dodgers: -76 RS, +71 RA
2005 Cardinals: -24 RS, +128 RA
2006 A's: -30 RS, +30 RA
2007 Rockies: -113 RS, +64 RA
2008 Cubs: -148 RS, +1 RA
2009 Dodgers: -113 RS, +81 RA
2010 Twins: -110 RS, +133 RA
2011 Phillies: -29 RS, +151 RA
2012 Giants: -89 RS, +42 RA

On average, the teams decreased 77 runs on offense while allowing 71 more runs. Most of these teams had a big drop on at least one side of the ball, however. Look at last year's Giants, the defending World Series champs. Everyone blamed their decline on the bad years from Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito, but in reality the offense was much worse than 2012, scoring 89 fewer runs. The 2011 Phillies had a historic rotation that wasn't able to repeat in 2012.

What does this have to do with the Pirates? They're ripe for a big increase in runs allowed.

The 2013 Pirates allowed 577 runs -- the third-lowest total in the National League since 2008, behind only those 2011 Phillies and the 2013 Braves. That in itself isn't a sign of worse things to come: The 2010 Giants allowed 583 runs and then 578 in 2011; the 2012 Reds allowed 588 and then 589; the 2012 Dodgers allowed 597 runs and then 582.

But the Pirates don't have a Clayton Kershaw on their staff. What they have are some question marks:

• Francisco Liriano: 16-8, 3.02 ERA in 161 innings. He's always had the talent but has had injuries and control issues throughout his career. From 2009 to 2012, he posted a 4.85 ERA. He cut his walk rate from five per nine innings in 2011 and 2012 to 3.5 in 2013. Can he do that again?
• A.J. Burnett: 10-11, 3.30 ERA in 191 innings. He's had two solid seasons in Pittsburgh but is now a free agent and still unsigned. He has said he wants to return, but the Pirates have signed Edinson Volquez as a backup plan. The same Edinson Volquez who was the worst regular starter in the majors in 2013 and hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2008.
• Jeff Locke: 10-7, 3.52 ERA in 166 innings. Locke came out of nowhere to make the All-Star team, but his low strikeout rate pointed to the possibility that his first half was a fluke. Sure enough, he had a 6.15 ERA after the All-Star break. He doesn't have great stuff, relying heavily on a 90 mph sinking fastball. Who is the real Jeff Locke?
• Charlie Morton: 7-4, 3.26 ERA in 116 innings. The Pirates just signed him to a three-year, $21 million contract even though he's entering his age-30 season and has never pitched more than 171 2/3 innings in a season.
• The bullpen: 30-20, 2.89 ERA, 55 saves (second in majors), 15 blown saves (fifth-fewest). The bullpen was brilliant while also throwing the fourth-most innings in the majors. The Pirates had the third-best bullpen ERA in the majors behind the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals -- which ranked 29th and 28th in the majors in innings. It was a remarkable season by the Pittsburgh relievers, one that will be difficult to repeat.

Three more quick notes here. First, the Pirates' pitching staff was helped by a very good defensive team, as the Pirates ranked third in the majors with 68 defensive runs saved. It's possible the Pirates are a legitimately great defensive team, but it's also possible they'll take a small step backward there. Second, the Pirates' runs scored and runs allowed totals suggest a team that should have won 88 games, not 94 -- those totals suggest the Pirates have to get better just to win 94 games again. Finally, it's worth noting that the Pirates weren't as young as everyone believed. The NL average age for position players was 28.3; the Pirates were 27.9 (weighted for at-bats). For pitchers, the league average was 28.1 and the Pirates were 28.7. Young teams are more likely to improve, but the Pirates were pretty much a league-average team agewise.

Of course, the offense could pick up any slack from the pitching staff, but it's difficult to see where the offense will get better. Andrew McCutchen was already the MVP, Pedro Alvarez hit 36 home runs, Neil Walker did Neil Walker things and Starling Marte projects to have a similar season. The front office hasn't made any moves to improve, the lineup and Gaby Sanchez is the full-time first baseman right now.

The future of the Pirates remains bright, even if management can't sign a big-ticket free agent. Right-hander Gerrit Cole is a stud, and Jameson Taillon, another righty, may become one. Exciting young prospects like outfielder Gregory Polanco and shortstop Alen Hanson will soon hit Pittsburgh. But the Pirates are likely to take a step backward before taking another step forward.

As Buster Olney wrote in his Sunday blog, "a lot of the winter work was done" as general managers caught flights out of Orlando. But some big free agents are still out there -- most notably Shin-Soo Choo but also some quality starting pitchers in Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and Ervin Santana.

Buster listed seven teams that could still have a big move left -- the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Tigers, Mariners and Diamondbacks. With that in mind, here are 10 predictions on what will happen the rest of the offseason.

1. The Rangers sign Shin-Soo Choo.

The Rangers could go the less expensive route and bring back Nelson Cruz without forfeiting the first-round pick they'd lose for signing Choo, but Texas had a mediocre offense last year with Cruz. Why go down that road again? Choo gets on base more and would give the team another table-setter in front of Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder.

The Tigers signed Rajai Davis and appear willing to move forward with a Davis-Andy Dirks platoon in left field. Don't count out the Mariners -- the outfield is still a mess with the likes of Michael Saunders, Dustin Ackley and possibly Corey Hart or Logan Morrison, although the latter two are best suited for first base or DH duties.

2. The Rays trade David Price to the Mariners.

The Mariners can't stop with Robinson Cano and two guys coming off injuries. For better or worse, general manager Jack Zduriencik is all in. Cano's best season in a Mariners uniform is likely to be 2014 and not 2016 or 2017, so there is pressure to upgrade the current roster right now.

To get Price, the Mariners will trade Taijuan Walker despite proclamations from Zduriencik that that won't happen. "I don't have intentions of trading Taijuan," he said during the winter meetings. "You listen to any opportunities that present themselves and you go into discussions with a lot of people. And his name will come up. Why wouldn't it? As do a lot of our guys, quite frankly. But Taijuan is high-profile because he's rated our top prospect."


3. The Angels sign Matt Garza.

The Mark Trumbo trade gave the Angels some rotation depth with Hector Santiago from the White Sox and young lefty Tyler Skaggs from the Diamondbacks. Those two would slot in behind Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Garrett Richards, but the Angels may not be done looking for a starter. As they learned last year, you can never have enough pitching depth, plus it wouldn't hurt to give the 22-year-old Skaggs more time in the minors to help rediscover the form that made him one of the top prospects in the game in 2012.

Can Garza fit in the payroll? Right now, Baseball-Reference estimates it at about $144 million, up from last year's $129 million. The new national TV money is coming in, but signing Garza means the Angels may need to clear some payroll. Leading to this ...


4. The Angels trade Howie Kendrick to the Braves.

The Braves have been oddly quiet this offseason while losing Brian McCann and Tim Hudson via free agency. No, signing Gavin Floyd -- he's not expected back until at least May after Tommy John surgery -- doesn't qualify as a major move.

Remember, despite winning 96 games, this team still batted Evan Gattis cleanup in a playoff game and started Freddy Garcia with its season on the line. The obvious position to upgrade is second base, where Dan Uggla posted a minus-1.3 WAR and was left off the postseason roster in favor of Elliot Johnson. Uggla is due $13 million each of the next two seasons, but the Braves have to decide whether they want to count on a guy who may be washed up or whether they want to pay $22 million for two second basemen.

Kendrick is signed for two more years and would cost a couple of prospects, but maybe the Braves could toss in Uggla while picking up the majority of his salary.


5. The Reds re-sign Bronson Arroyo.

Several teams have expressed interest in Arroyo, not only because of his durability but also because Cincinnati didn't give him a qualifying offer, so you don't lose a draft pick if you sign him. The Reds seemed focused on trying to sign Homer Bailey to a long-term extension, but that hasn't happened. So they may shift their priorities back to Arroyo, who has been with them since 2006.

Even though the Twins have signed Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, they reportedly still want to sign one more guy as they revamp their rotation. Arroyo is a classic Twins-type pitcher: control over velocity. He's looking for a three-year contract, which may price out the Pirates, but Arroyo would be a nice fit to replace A.J. Burnett if he doesn't return to Pittsburgh.


6. The Dodgers do not trade Matt Kemp.

After two injury-plagued seasons, it's easy to understand the desire to trade him. But ESPN Insider Dave Cameron wrote this week that we shouldn't assume Kemp's days as an elite-level player are over:

There's some good news for Kemp and the Dodgers, however; age-28 regressions are actually pretty common, even for good young players who had established themselves as high-quality players at a young age. In most of the cases, the guys who took a year off from hitting well bounced back to perform at a high level again.

Selling now on Kemp means selling low. Yes, he has that monster contract, but the Dodgers would be wiser to hold on to Kemp and hope he rebounds and gives them a huge middle of the order with Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez. There is the concern that he shouldn't be playing center field, but it's not like Andre Ethier is that all much better out there. Puig is probably the best option for center if the Dodgers want to move him.

As for Ethier, maybe a trade market develops for him once Choo and Cruz sign. The Dodgers can afford to be patient.

7. The Mariners sign Nelson Cruz.

The Rangers gave Cruz a qualifying offer, so the market for a guy who will turn 34 in July, has posted mediocre OBPs in recent years and has little defensive value will be slim. But, hey, the Mariners have developed a fetish for this type of player, and their first-round pick is protected. Looks like a three-year marriage in the making.

What would the Mariners look like with Cruz and Price? Something like this:

SS Brad Miller
LF/1B Corey Hart
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nelson Cruz
3B Kyle Seager
DH Logan Morrison
1B Justin Smoak
C Mike Zunino
CF Michael Saunders/Dustin Ackley

SP Felix Hernandez
SP David Price
SP Hisashi Iwakuma
SP James Paxton
SP Erasmo Ramirez

8. The Orioles sign Grant Balfour.

The Orioles have a hole at closer after trading Jim Johnson, a hole in left field after losing Nate McLouth, and no obvious candidate to take most of the DH at-bats. It appears they are most concerned with finding a closer.

Several teams still need (or desire) a closer, but it could come to AL East rivals. While the Yankees can ultimately just put David Robertson in the ninth-inning role, the Orioles' top relievers (Darren O'Day, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz) all have platoon issues. Balfour will turn 36 later this month but is seeking a three-year contract. My bet is the Orioles give it to him.

9. The Dodgers sign Ervin Santana.

The Dodgers have been rumored to be involved in David Price trade rumors, and they would certainly be in on Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka if he's posted. But they also don't want to deplete their farm system, and the Rakuten Golden Eagles may just decide to keep Tanaka.

Even if the Eagles do post Tanaka -- he's an unrestricted free agent in two years, so they may just decide to cash in regardless -- the Dodgers also have to sign Clayton Kershaw to a long-term contract. With Zack Greinke and eventually Kershaw, do they want three starters being paid mega-millions? Probably not. So look for them to seek a cheaper alternative like Santana, who would fill out the rotation as a durable No. 4-type starter.

10.The Cubs will keep Jeff Samardzija.

Are you as tired of Samardzija trade rumors as I am? At this point, he's been tied to nearly every team in one rumor or another. The Blue Jays are the latest possible destination, but the Cubs reportedly asked for two top prospects plus a third player. Samardzija has two seasons left until free agency, and while he struck out 214 in 213 2/3 innings, his ERA was also 4.34, and 4.72 in the second half.

So maybe he just remains with the Cubs because of the high asking price. And then the Cubs will hopefully sign him to a 10-year extension so we don't have to go listen to all these rumors again in July.

The St. Louis Cardinals continue to make small moves that will make the team deeper and stronger than the World Series squad of 2013, the latest being agreeing with veteran second baseman Mark Ellis on a one-year contract.

The basics on Ellis: Good glove, gets on base enough to not be worthless at the plate, will battle rookie Kolten Wong for playing time at second base.

Most importantly, it means the Cardinals added more depth and increased their flexibility throughout the roster. We saw the lack of bench depth in the World Series, when light-hitting Shane Robinson replaced the struggling Jon Jay in center field in Game 5 ... and hit second in the lineup.

Now look at the various options manager Mike Matheny will have:

• Ellis and Wong at second (since Wong bats left-handed, you even have a perfect platoon if Wong performs).
• Peter Bourjos and Jon Jay in center field. You can platoon them, or you can play Bourjos when you want defense or play Jay against tougher right-handed pitchers.
• Allen Craig and Matt Adams can both play first base.
• Craig can play right field, with top prospect Oscar Taveras probably ready after a month or two in Triple-A.
• Pete Kozma is still around to back up Jhonny Peralta at shortstop.
• Robinson is still around as a decent backup outfielder.

The bench, a weakness in 2013, now looks like a potential strength.

Yes, the Cardinals lost Carlos Beltran and David Freese. In sliding Matt Carpenter over to third base and going with the Wong/Ellis combo at second, the Cardinals essentially replaced Freese's offense (.262/.340/.381) while upgrading defensively at two spots. Beltran hit .296/.339/.491 but the hope is Adams and Taveras can come close to replacing that offense. Peralta is a big upgrade offensively over Kozma, and Bourjos is an upgrade defensively in center.

There is one potential issue here. The Cardinals ranked 13th in the National League in home runs and Matt Holliday is now the only player on the roster who hit 20 in 2013. They hit .269 overall, but a record .330 with runners in scoring position. They led the NL in runs scored due to that timely hitting, results that won't necessarily be repeated in 2014. (The 2012 team hit .264 with RISP; the 2011 World Series champs hit .290.)

The offense may not score 783 runs again, but it wasn't likely to score 783 runs again, anyway. However, it gives Matheny better matchup possibilities. I don't think we'll be seeing Shane Robinson hitting second in a playoff game in 2014.

The New York Mets have spent wisely on useful veterans this offseason. After formally introducing Curtis Granderson at the winter meetings earlier this week, the club officially signed his former teammate Bartolo Colon to a two-year deal worth $20 million as he passed his physical -- with Colon, not necessarily a sure thing considering his past injuries and, umm, weight issues. The average annual value of $10 million may seem like a lot for a 40-year-old who has been suspended for PED usage, but given the AAV of pitchers with similar, if not less production and track record, it appears to be a fair deal for both sides.

Colon returns to the National League East more than a decade after his half-season with the Montreal Expos. Although he was plenty good with the Oakland A's last season, going 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA, there's room to believe he might be even better should his pipeline to the fountain of youth continue. Trading the designated hitter for opposing pitchers should help artificially boost his below-average strikeout rate while aiding in maintaining his near non-existent walk total. He has faced 1405 batters over the last two seasons and walked just 49 unintentionally. In regards to batted balls, he will continue to pitch in a pitcher-friendly home park and will do so in front of what should be an above-average defensive outfield that includes Granderson, Chris Young and Juan Lagares.

Colon's game plan is simple. Everything is predicated off well-located fastballs. Despite his advanced age, and diminished velocity, he is one of the heaviest (no pun intended) users of fastballs in the league. Since 2011, he has thrown the most heaters of any starter (minimum 450 innings). In fact, it is not even close. Colon has thrown nearly 86 percent fastballs over the last three seasons with Gio Gonzalez in second at just under 70 percent.

While Colon may seem like a one-trick pony, he actually uses the fastball as multiple different pitches. Take for example his work against Adrian Beltre in 2013. As division rivals, the duo locked horns 13 times. The results are irrelevant (.077/.077/.154 for those that care) but the process is evident. Of the 43 pitches Colon threw to Beltre, 34 were fastballs. The velocity range was 86 mph on the low end and 94 mph on the high end of the spectrum. The most impressive part was the varied location. Colon threw up and in on the hands as frequently as he threw down and away. The constant changing of speeds and shifting of eye levels makes illustrates how one pitch can look like a complete arsenal the opposing batter.



The risk in signing a pitcher working on his fifth decade on the planet to a multi-year contract is implied. But Colon is an outlier. Over the last two seasons, he has made 54 starts, averaging over six innings per start with an ERA around 3.00. For a Mets' staff that has an average birth year in the late 1980s, the ability to consistently go deep in the games is noteworthy. There is also value in young hurlers soaking up some tips of the trade from a guy who has thrown around 50,000 pitches at the top level. Even if you want to tack on an arbitrary half run for each additional birthday candle, Colon should pay off over the length of the deal, The Mets have added a good major league pitcher at a price that is more than reasonable.

Tommy Rancel writes for The Process Report and contributes to GammonsDaily.com.

1. Rays and James Loney agree on a three-year, $21 million contract.

I'm a little surprised Loney wasn't able to get a little better contract after a solid 2013 -- two years and $20 million or three years and $30 million, something like that -- but Loney remains a bit of an enigma and he doesn't give you the power you'd like from a first baseman, so teams hate to spend money on a guy like him. Still, I'd rather have Loney for three years at $7 million per season than Justin Morneau for two years at $6.25 million per season (as the Rockies gave him).

While Loney hit .299/.348/.430 in 2013 and plays good defense, he also hit .249/.293/.336 in 2012. The fear is that he may be more 2012 than 2013. But as Tommy Rancel pointed out over at The Process Report:

Perception aside, there appears to be little wrong with this arrangement. Loney is an average -- or slightly better -- player being paid at what appears to be market rate. The comparison to Casey Kotchman will be made, but that is rather lazy. Some will quickly point out Loney’s disastrous 2012, and sudden rebound as too positive of a correction, but looking at each season in which he has logged over 300 plate appearances, it is 2012 and not 2013 that jumps out as more of the outlier.

Season by wRC+
2007 – 137
2008 – 102
2009 – 103
2010 – 97
2011 – 110
2012 – 70
2013 – 115

Loney isn't a great player but he's durable and, at 29, three years younger than Morneau, and plays better defense. For a team like the Rays, it's a safe investment.

2. Royals and Omar Infante agree to four-year, $30 million deal.

Infante has had an interesting career. A regular in the big leagues at 22 with the Tigers, he had a bad season at age 23 and the Tigers turned him into a utility player, eventually trading him to the Cubs (for Jacque Jones, who hit .165 in 24 games with Detroit). The Cubs immediately traded him to the Braves. From 2006 through 2009 he averaged just 250 plate appearances a season. I'm pretty sure at that point Infante never imagined he'd be signing a $30 million contract. Anyway, he was a controversial All-Star in 2010 for the Braves, traded to the Marlins for Dan Uggla and then traded with Anibal Sanchez back to the Tigers in 2012.

He's been a good player the past four seasons, averaging 2.7 WAR per year as a good contact hitter who plays a reliable second base. But those were his age-27 to age-31 seasons. The Royals are banking him being productive from ages 32 to 35. The Royals have now handed $62 million to Infante and Jason Vargas, which probably sounds more ridiculous than it is. Both are average-ish players, but Kansas City is banking on strong aging curves from both. While it's easy to criticize both moves, these are the types of players a team like the Royals are going to land in free agency.

Infante hit .318 with a .345 OBP in 2013 (he doesn't walk much, obviously) so had value on offense; but he hit .276 in 2011 and .274 in 2012 and didn't have as much value. The Royals needed a second baseman so Infante will help; it's just a question of how much he'll help.

3. Rockies reportedly agree with Boone Logan on a three-year, $16.5 million contract.

In his past three years with the Yankees, Logan averaged 45.1 innings per season while posting a 3.51 ERA. So the Yankees viewed him as a LOOGY, although he's not really a dominant LOOGY; lefties hit .238/.300/.404 off him with 10 home runs in 302 at-bats over those three years. Among lefty relievers with at least 100 innings over the past three years, he's 33rd in OPS allowed against left-handed batters. He's not a bad pitcher and he's good enough against right-handers that his role could potentially be expanded, keeping in mind that Joe Girardi used him very carefully.

The issue with giving Logan $16.5 million is simple: Why spend your money on relief pitching? OK, the Rockies had the worst bullpen ERA in the National League at 4.23. But some of that is pitching in Coors Field and some of that is that Rockies relievers had to throw more innings than any other team. The Rockies claim they have a limited payroll and decided to spend their new TV money on: (A) a first baseman who has regressed into a barely league-average hitter; (B) a starting pitcher (Brett Anderson) who has made 24 starts the past three seasons; (C) a LOOGY.

I've been critical of the Rockies, although I will say they went 74-88 while the bottom of the rotation was beyond horrible. With better starting pitcher, they could suddenly morph into contender status. I don't see it, but you never know.

News items:

• The San Francisco Giants agreed with Michael Morse on a one-year deal for $5 million plus incentives.

• The Philadelphia Phillies agreed with Roberto Hernandez on a one-year deal to join their rotation.

Both moves could pay off, but both moves also show the positions both clubs are in: You don't need to sign players like Morse and Hernandez if you're in good shape to begin with.

Morse peaked in 2011 with the Nationals with a 31-homer season, fell off in 2012 and was a disaster for the Mariners and Orioles in 2013, hitting .215/.270/.381. He's a guy who doesn't draw walks and is terrible in the outfield, so all his value resides in his ability to hit for power and a high BABIP. In his three seasons with the Nationals, he did consistently hit for a high BABIP with marks of .330, .344 and .339. He cratered last year with a .254 mark. He did battle some injuries, but his line-drive rate, according to ESPN Stats & Information, was 20 percent, higher than his 2010-12 rate of 18 percent.

This could make him a good bounce-back candidate. He hit .263 on ground balls from 2010 to 2012 but just .149 in 2013. Of course, maybe he wasn't hitting his ground balls as hard. Or maybe he was just unlucky. (The MLB average in 2013 on grounders was .241.)

On the other hand, Morse will be 32 and has accrued negative-20 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating rates him as the second-worst outfielder over the past three years (minimum 1,000 innings), with negative-21 runs per 150 games. If Morse plays regularly in left field, the Giants' outfield defense could be among the worst in the majors. Angel Pagan was once an elite center fielder, but he is 32 and has rated below average the past three seasons via DRS. Hunter Pence has also rated below average the past two years.

Will Morse pay off? I have my doubts. He is very slow, doesn't provide value on defense and is at the age when players of his skill set often decline rapidly. His lack of plate discipline is another major issue. He's a one-dimensional kind of risk, and his one dimension may not play well in AT&T Park. But the Giants may be looking at him as primarily as a platoon player with Gregor Blanco, a much better defender, and if Morse hits enough, then maybe he wins more playing time.

The Hernandez signing makes sense since the Phillies were looking for a cheap starter to compete with Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Pettibone for the final two slots behind Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Miguel Gonzalez. Hernandez was 6-13 with a 4.89 ERA for Tampa Bay in 2013, somehow lasting most of the season in the rotation. Despite Tampa Bay's shifts on defense that help its pitchers, Hernandez allowed a .281 average -- and 24 home runs in 151 innings, primarily because left-handers hit .305 and slugged .537 off him.

As with Morse, however, there are some positives that hint at a better 2014. His control, always his big issue, was much improved as he issued just 38 walks; his home run-to-fly ball rate was high, meaning you could expect fewer home runs in 2014; he's healthy; he won't be pitching in the American League East. He's not a difference-maker but a worthwhile one-year gamble.

That said, are the Phillies really contenders? Michael Baumann wrote this the other day on Crashburn Alley, before the signing:

Let's put it this way–the Phillies are a high school student with a report card of an A, a B-plus, four C-minuses and a D. The Marlins have two As and five Fs, and Cano and Ellsbury represent an A and a B-plus to put anywhere on your report card. Those two replacements make a bigger difference for the student that was worse to start.

The Red Sox last year changed a bunch of Fs to Bs, and had to be incredibly smart and incredibly lucky to do even that. If the Phillies were that smart and that lucky, the impact wouldn't be that great. Weakness in the form of one or two disastrous gaping holes is relatively easy to solve in free agency. But the Phillies have a case of general mediocrity, an across-the-board malaise, and for 2014 at least, they’re going to drown in it.

I'm inclined to agree. Hernandez is a small fish. The Phillies needed to land several big ones.

A list of players the Mariners have signed or acquired in the past three offseasons:

Jesus Montero
Mike Morse
Raul Ibanez
Jason Bay
Kendrys Morales
Logan Morrison
Corey Hart

Has another team ever collected a similar group of unathletic first-base/DH types over such a relatively short period of time? What a strange obsession for general manager Jack Zduriencik, especially when considering Justin Smoak is still around. It reminds me of my Little League coach who batted the two best hitters on the team fourth and eighth because he wanted two cleanup hitters. What?!?!?

OK, Corey Hart was a good player with the Brewers, and from 2010 through 2012 he hit .279/.343/.514 while averaging 29 home runs; I agree that he's a worthwhile risk even after missing all of 2013. But while he twice stole 23 bases earlier in his career, he swiped just five in 2012 and underwent surgery on both knees last season. He's almost certainly limited to first base and DH now, although this is the team that gave the 41-year-old Ibanez 98 starts in the outfield in 2013, so who knows. Morrison is another guy with bad knees whom the Marlins had attempted playing outfield with dismal results. An outfield with Morrison and Hart could rival last year's Ibanez-Morse pairing for defensive ineptitude. (And, yes, it could happen; the Mariners could still re-sign Morales to DH and play Smoak at first and Hart/Morrison in the corners. And you wonder why everyone is buying Russell Wilson jerseys these days.)

Jeff Sullivan of the U.S.S. Mariner blog analyzed the moves here:

Morrison might well be a replacement-level player. Hart wasn't an asset in the outfield even before he busted both his knees. This would be an example of the Mariners both getting suckered again by Smoak-like potential, and ignoring the importance of defense as they did with Morse and Raul Ibanez. If anything the Mariners needed one fewer Smoak, not a second one, playing a defensive position he shouldn't play. Maybe if Morrison and Smoak were in a job share, you could wait to see if one stepped up. Maybe if the Mariners weren't in position of needing to win soon, you could wait to see if one stepped up. But Morrison doesn't look like a great gamble as a half-time outfielder, and Smoak and Hart are forcing him into that position. Though he has the prospect background, that's getting further and further away, and he's got 1,500 big league plate appearances suggesting what he is.

The mention of Morrison's one-time prospect status brings up this second list, Baseball America's top 100 prospect rankings from the spring of 2010:

4. Jesus Montero, Yankees
11. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
13. Justin Smoak, Rangers
20. Logan Morrison, Marlins
30. Michael Saunders, Mariners

We can analyze what's gone wrong this group in a 10,000-word post another time, but suffice it to say they're all now on the Mariners and all still unproven. Or proven to be far less than once predicted of them. Considering it's been four full seasons since that list, the odds of any of them becoming stars has slipped to just about zero.

Maybe you can chalk it to a bad year of prospects -- after all, other top-30 prospects that year included Brian Matusz, Alcides Escobar, Aaron Hicks, Tyler Matzek, Casey Kelly, Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace and Michael Taylor. Even some of the success stories have been moderate, guys such as Desmond Jennings, Pedro Alvarez, Neftali Feliz, Starlin Castro, Domonic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson and Chris Carter.

I don't really have a point here, other than to point out the obvious (prospects are risky) and that, back in 2010, any general managers would have loved to have those five guys on their team in 2014.

The Mariners have all five. And Robinson Cano. And Felix Hernandez. And might still not be a winning team.

Last offseason, the New York Mets signed outfielder Marlon Byrd to a minor league contract with an invite to the major league spring training camp. The signing was mostly an afterthought as Byrd was coming off a two-year stretch in which he hit just .260/.305/.358 and included a suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug and a stint in the Mexican League.

By season's end, Byrd hit 24 home runs and had 64 total extra-base hits while playing for New York and Pittsburgh and parlayed that success into a new two-year deal from Philadelphia. All in all, the Mets rostered a 3.5-win player and a pitcher for a $700,000 contract. It paid off even more than the $1.1 million deal the Mets gave Scott Hairston in 2012 as he had a 1.6-win season for them as a platoon outfielder.

Each season, we see some version of this move where a team will give a hitter with a power pedigree a cheap deal and the player pays off. In 2006, Miami plucked Dan Uggla out of the Rule 5 draft and he hit 27 home runs as a rookie in a 4.2-win season. In 2007, Tampa Bay gave Carlos Pena a similar deal after he'd been let go in 2006 by the Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox, and watched him post a 5.5-win season while hitting 46 home runs after starting first baseman Greg Norton was lost with an injury on the last day of spring training. The following season, the Rays brought in Eric Hinske on a similar deal and Hinske hit 20 home runs, had a 2-win season, and convinced Evan Longoria to sign his first team-friendly contract. Most recently, Seattle paid Raul Ibanez $2.75M to hit 29 home runs in 2013.

The league-wide slugging percentage has dropped 36 points over the past eight seasons from .432 to .396. As offensive numbers continue to taper off while teams improve their run-prevention strategies, it has put an increased premium on acquiring power. Power has rarely come cheaply, and that will only get tougher as the game continues to trend as it does. Stories like Byrd are rare; teams tend to go with players a more recent record of success.

Corey Hart and Michael Morse are the most recent examples of this. Hart, despite missing all of 2013 with surgeries on both knees, received $5 million from Seattle and has not been ruled out to play the outfield. Morse, a very poor defensive outfielder, was given $5 million by San Francisco and will play left field.

If a team wants to pay for some power hitting, Kendrys Morales is still available on the free-agent market. He is only available because signing him will require a team to give up its highest-remaining draft pick in the 2014 amateur draft and teams prefer keeping those draft picks. Nelson Cruz is also going to be there for a team willing to pay the price for his services.

If the other teams are looking to acquire cheap power along the lines of what Byrd, Hinske, Ibanez, Pena and Uggla have done in recent seasons, there are relatively few options to consider.

Catchers

John Buck stands out in a very weak free-agent class as the best power source for teams looking for a second catcher. Buck's skills are in decline, but he has hit at least 12 home runs in each of the past four seasons.

Infielders

Wilson Betemit missed most of 2013 with a knee injury. From 2009-2012, Betemit had a .361 wOBA against right-handed pitching over 813 plate appearances that included 85 extra-base hits. Betemit has switch-hit throughout his career, but has done nearly all of his damage as a left-handed batter. He is currently playing winter ball in the Dominican League.

Mark Reynolds has hit 157 home runs over the past five seasons, but has also struck out 943 times. The three-true-outcome player has played for four organizations in three years and his value relies solely upon how many of his fly balls make it over the fence.

Kevin Youkilis has not hit more than 20 home runs since 2009 despite playing in hitter-friendly parks. A back injury ruined his 2013 season and he is looking for a rebound season in 2014. A three-year decline in his Isolated Power from 2010-2012 paints a pessimistic picture for his ability to once again hit for power.

Outfielders

Ibanez is back out on the market after his surprising power season in Seattle. At 41 (42 in June), he should be limited to a designated hitter role in the American League. His home run-to-fly ball ratio was an even 20 percent last season while his five-year rate is 14 percent. He defies his age as his Isolated Power rating has improved each of the past four seasons. The Angels are the latest team rumored to have interest in him.

It was just two seasons ago that Jason Kubel hit 30 home runs for Arizona. That season came on the heels of a three-year decline in his Isolated Power rating. His 18 percent home run-to-fly ball rate helped him make his first year in Arizona a great one. Last season was the exact opposite as he began the year injured and never found his groove. Year by year, his strikeout rate continues to increase and his splits get worse. Those splits, his contact issues and his defensive challenges limit his options to produce again.

It would be rather surprising to see a Marlon Byrd come out of this group of free agents in 2014, almost as surprising as what we saw from him and Ibanez in 2013. For teams with vacancies at either the infield or outfield corners or behind the plate, the trade market may present safer alternatives such as Ike Davis or Justin Smoak.

Jason Collette writes for The Process Report, a blog on the Rays, and contributes to FanGraphs and Rotowire.

The acquisition of Mark Trumbo by Arizona is one that has both its upsides as well as its flaws. From the D-backs' perspective, it was clear they wanted to add power as it was something GM Kevin Towers has expressed repeatedly in recent months.

Towers first expressed the desire to the Arizona Repbulic's Nick Piecoro in early September, and team president Derrick Hall expressed a similar sentiment to Adam Green in early October:

Against that backdrop, acquiring Trumbo makes sense as it fulfilled a clear desire. Towers pointed out in the press conference yesterday that while Trumbo has his issues getting on base, 30-homer guys who get on base are tough to find these days. He is right.

In 2006, there were 22 players who hit at least 30 home runs and got on base at least 35 percent of the time. Over the past three seasons, that number has fallen from 17 to 12 to just 6. Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, and David Ortiz were the only sluggers to hit both benchmarks in 2013. Beggars cannot be choosers; Arizona was begging for another power hitter and took what the market presented with the lack of ideal options.

That said, there also are the issues with his offensive abilities. (And that's without even discussing his shortcomings as outfielder, which could be a problem in Arizona.)

Few can match his raw power, and few can match his inability to get on base. Over the past three seasons, Trumbo's .300 on base percentage is the fifth-worst of all batters with at least 1,500 plate appearances. Only J.J. Hardy (.298), Jeff Francouer (.297), Alcides Escobar (.294), and Darwin Barney (.293) have lower OBP's in that time.

His other indicators as a full-time player are a mixed bag of results. This past season, Trumbo nearly doubled his anemic 4.4 percent walk rate from his rookie year. Additionally, he has improved his selectivity by season in reducing his overall swing rate as well as the percentage of pitches he swing at outside of the strike zone. Despite those gains, his strikeout rate has digressed each season from 20.9 to 26.1 to 27.1 percent this past season.

Surprisingly, the rise in strikeout rate is not from chasing pitches out of of the zone. His issues come from problems making contact on pitches within the strike zone (see table).

The league average for miss percentage on pitches within the strike zone is 14.6 percent; Trumbo's 21.8 percent rate places him in the bottom tenth percentile. The issues is more pronounced when focusing on the outer half of the zone. Trumbo's wOBA has declined from .353 to .350 to .324 this past season on pitches within the outer half of the strike zone. His swing-and-miss rate on those pitches was 15.6 percent as a rookie and doubled to 30.1 percent in 2013.

Pitchers are well aware of Trumbo's abilities to punish pitches on the inner half. As a full-time player, Trumbo has a .377 wOBA against pitches on the inner half of the strike zone with a 22 percent swing-and-miss rate. On pitches on the outer half of the strik ezone, his wOBA drops to .324 and his swing-and-miss rate jumps to 24 percent. Most of his struggles on the outer half are centered around his continual struggles with breaking balls away.

The continual decline with pitches in the zone is concerning, as research by Bill Petti from Fangraphs has shown how the drop-off for out of zone contact begins to precipitously decline around ages 28-29. Trumbo turns 28 next month. If the current issues within the zone coincide with the drop-off in out of zone contact, Trumbo's future could be in for an unfortunate downturn much like that of fellow right-handed all-or-nothing sluggers Mark Reynolds and Richie Sexson before him.

Let's wrap up our three questions series with the NL West. And then hope the winter meetings give us a couple of blockbusters.

Los Angeles Dodgers

What do they need? A third baseman if they don't re-sign Juan Uribe. Somebody to take Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp. Maybe a starting pitcher (they signed Dan Haren as a fourth guy and still have Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley, but both are coming off injuries). Utility infielder or insurance policy for new Cuban second baseman Alex Guerrero.

Is this a championship-caliber offense? The Dodgers were only seventh in the NL in runs scored, but that was with incomplete seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig. From June 15 on, they were third behind the Cardinals and Nationals. So yes, this lineup is more than capable of leading the league in runs scored, especially if Kemp can return to something near his 2011 level. Then again, Dave Stewart, Kemp's agent, said he will attend the winter meetings, saying he believes there is a strong chance Kemp will be traded.

Is there one more big move coming? You mean David Price or Masahiro Tanaka? Sure, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Dodgers get one of those guys, but they've also indicated they don't want to completely deplete the farm system, and Tanaka may not get posted anyway.

Arizona Diamondbacks

What do they need? They've been looking for a corner outfielder and Angels slugger Mark Trumbo is a possibility. His best position is first base but he did start 97 games in the outfield in 2012, and 24 last year, and was adequate out there. He hit 34 home runs in a tough park, which means he could maybe hit 35 to 40 in Arizona. The Diamondbacks had reportedly been in on Carlos Beltran but fell short.

Who do they trade? They have starting pitching -- Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley. They'll almost certainly hold on to Patrick Corbin and Archie Bradley.

They still have three shortstops. Do they trade one? If the team is committed to Didi Gregorius, and they keep Cliff Pennington as the utility infielder, it makes sense to shop around Chris Owings, who hit .330 with Triple-A Reno at age 21 and looked good in a September cameo. But there's also something to healthy competition for a job. (They could also trade Aaron Hill and move Owings to second base.)

San Francisco Giants

What do they need? A left fielder. They recommitted to Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong, deciding to live in the past rather than moving forward. Tim Hudson was signed to fill out the rotation, but otherwise they're going with the same club that went 76-86. (Granted, the back of the rotation with Lincecum, Vogelsong and Barry Zito was beyond awful, so even marginal improvement plus Hudson will help immensely.)

Who could they get for left field? Hey, they still have Gregor Blanco! The Giants have looked at free agent Mike Morse, but GM Brian Sabean has indicated he's more likely to make a trade. One Giants beat writer indicated that Ichiro Suzuki was a possibility after the Yankees signed Beltran, but at this point in his career Suzuki would be a downgrade from Blanco.

Hey, what about Kemp? Good one. No way the Dodgers would trade Kemp within the division.

San Diego Padres

What do they need? The lineup is pretty set although it lacks that big guy in the middle of the order unless Chase Headley bounces back. They've been one of the teams mentioned in the Price rumors.

What's the rotation right now? They signed Josh Johnson -- a good one-year gamble after his bad season in Toronto -- to join Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Eric Stults and Tyson Ross. If Cory Luebke can return, that's an even bigger plus. But adding Price gives them the No. 1 they lack.

Can they score enough runs? They were 12th in runs but scored more runs on the road than the Pirates, Braves or Nationals. The offense is actually more average-ish than bad once you get it outside of Petco Park. If Headley hits a little better and Yonder Alonso improves and Jedd Gyorko has a big sophomore season, this could be a good enough offense.

Colorado Rockies

What do they need? Justin Morneau will replace the retired Todd Helton, leaving the rotation. Even factoring in Coors Field, the back of the rotation is terrible. The Rockies gave 26 starts to Chad Bettis, Roy Oswalt, Jeff Manship, Drew Pomeranz and Collin McHugh and they went a combined 0-19. No, that's not a misprint. They also gave 24 starts to Jon Garland and Jeff Francis. So yeah, the rotation.

So it made sense that they spent their money on Morneau? The Rockies rarely do things that make sense. Like trading Dexter Fowler for Jordan Lyles, a low-upside starter without a strikeout pitch.

OK, so who else? They're unlikely to spend money one of the bigger free-agent starters, so look for scrap-heap scrambling again, or maybe a guy like Jason Hammel or Roberto Hernandez. They've also been linked to Brett Anderson of the A's.

We continue our three questions series with the NL Central ...

St. Louis Cardinals

What do they need? Unless the Cardinals surprise everyone with a blockbuster trade, they're essentially done for the offseason. Jhonny Peralta was signed to play shortstop, Matt Carpenter will move over to third and rookie Kolten Wong will be the second baseman. Peter Bourjos, acquired for David Freese, should take over a portion of the center-field duties from Jon Jay, with Allen Craig in right field, at least until Oscar Taveras is ready.

Do they have enough power? The Cardinals led the NL in runs scored in 2013, but they hit a record .330 with runners in scoring position. (In 2012, they hit .264 with RISP.) They ranked 13th in the NL in home runs in 2013, and Bourjos and Wong aren't going to help in that department, so the offense will be hard-pressed to score 783 runs again.

Who's going to be in the rotation? Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha and Lance Lynn have to be locks, leaving Joe Kelly, Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez for one spot (not to mention Trevor Rosenthal if the Cards were creative). For now, Rosenthal is the closer, and with Edward Mujica and John Axford gone, maybe Martinez stays in the pen for his rookie season.


Pittsburgh Pirates

What do they need? First base, starting pitcher, right field.

Who are they going after? They inquired about Adam Lind and Mitch Moreland, while free agent James Loney would be a relatively inexpensive signing. Pirates first basemen hit .264/.346/.422 with 17 home runs, so none of those guys are really big upgrades over that. Right field may actually be the bigger problem area, but with top prospect Gregory Polanco close to the majors, the Pirates can live with a Jose Tabata/Travis Snider platoon for a year or half a season. Well, try to live.

What about A.J. Burnett ... or David Price? If Burnett retires or signs elsewhere, the Pirates do have a big hole in the rotation to fill. Francisco Liriano is unlikely to repeat his big season (16-8, 3.02 ERA) and the league figured out Jeff Locke in the second half. Wandy Rodriguez is still around and Gerrit Cole has ace potential, but one more starter would be nice. The Pirates have the prospects to acquire Price. Don't be shocked if they get him.

Cincinnati Reds

What do they need? Besides Joey Votto taking all those walks instead of driving in runs? Right now, the Reds are counting on speed demon Billy Hamilton to take over from Shin-Soo Choo in center and veteran Ryan Ludwick to return from an injury-plagued 2013. Hamilton hit .258/.308/.343 at Triple-A, so there are concerns over his bat at the major league level. Ludwick will be 35, making him a risky bet for a bounce back, especially since 2012 had been his best season since 2008. They did sign Skip Schumaker, who provides insurance in center.

Will they go after a starter? With the departure of Bronson Arroyo, it's possible, although they still have a solid five-man group with Tony Cingrani. And there's always the possibility that new manager Bryan Price (elevated from pitching coach) will convince Aroldis Chapman to move out from the bullpen.

OK, Brandon Phillips. On the market or not? First he was, then GM Walt Jocketty said he wasn't. Then CEO Bob Castellini said, "you never say never." Schumaker could play second base (or even Hamilton, who played shortstop before moving to center last season) if the Reds do decide to trade Phillips, who is signed through 2017.

Milwaukee Brewers

What do they need? A first baseman. The Marlins are offering Logan Morrison around, so that could be a good fit. Ike Davis would be available from the Mets. They traded Norichika Aoki to acquire Will Smith from the Royals. Smith will get a chance to win a rotation spot.

Do they have any trade chips left? Not really, unless you include Ryan Braun. Aramis Ramirez is still around, but he's not a fit for the Marlins or Mets. The farm system isn't exactly loaded with top prospects.

Is there a chance this team could be in the playoff race? I'm done picking the Brewers. Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy make for a nice core, but the rotation needs Yovani Gallardo (4.18 ERA) and Wily Peralta (4.37 ERA) to pitch better, and the lack of depth is a huge problem.

Chicago Cubs

What do they need? Well, they were 14th in the NL in runs scored and 12th in runs allowed. So ... basically, everything. But the prospects are coming!

Will Jeff Samardzija be with the Cubs in 2014? The Cubs seem determined to trade him, and he's viewed as one of the players most likely to be traded during the winter meetings. Will he be part of a package to acquire Price? The Cubs have been quiet this offseason, foregoing free agents, so you have to wonder if a big trade is in the works. Or maybe they'll just punt on another season as they wait for Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and company to arrive.

Will anybody take Starlin Castro? No reason to trade him now. The Cubs would be selling low. Maybe new manager Rick Renteria can get him back on track.

Will anything happen at the winter meetings? Of course something will! Shin-Soo Choo is still out there, as are the top free-agent pitchers -- Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Bronson Arroyo. There are trades to be made and LOOGYs to sign. Here are three questions for each NL East team.

Atlanta Braves

What do they need? Fewer strikeouts. The willingness to use your closer for more than three outs in a playoff game. One less Upton. I kid, Braves fans! Various reports have the Braves looking to find a way to replace Dan Uggla, who hit .179 last year and was left off the playoff roster, or a starting pitcher (Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm are gone). GM Frank Wren has said he's looking for parts and is willing to trade prospects, but not pitcher Lucas Sims.

Are they counting on Evan Gattis to be the regular catcher? For now, that appears to be the case, although Gattis hit just .241/.272/.406 in the second half (although he did rebound with six home runs in September). Veteran Gerald Laird is still around and prospect Christian Bethancourt is a defensive whiz who could win the job if Fredi Gonzalez is willing to live without much offense.

Are the strikeouts really a concern? Yes and no. The Braves ranked fourth in the NL in runs scored thanks to a league-leading 181 home runs, so the strikeouts aren't necessarily a huge problem in the regular season. The playoffs are a different matter, however, when you face better pitchers and home runs are less frequent. The bigger concern is replacing the offense from the departed Brian McCann and the likelihood that Chris Johnson won't finish second in the batting race again. Better seasons from the Upton brothers will help there, and maybe this is the year Jason Heyward contends for the MVP Award.

Washington Nationals

What do they need? They acquired starter Doug Fister from the Tigers and signed outfielder Nate McLouth to add strength to a bench that was horrible. Otherwise, look for them to sign a veteran lefty for the bullpen -- Scott Downs or Eric O'Flaherty -- and there have also been rumors that Denard Span could be available.

Who's the fifth starter? The top four looks very strong with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Fister, and Ross Detwiler may move to the pen, leaving Tanner Roark, Taylor Jordan and Ross Ohlendorf in competition for the final slot. The Nationals were sixth in the NL with a 3.60 rotation ERA in 2013, but with Fister a likely upgrade over Dan Haren, this group has a chance to be the best in the league.

What's Bryce Harper going to do? The Steamer projection system has him at .271/.356/.480, essentially what he did last season. I'll take the over.

Philadelphia Phillies

What do they need? A time machine and maybe a starting pitcher. They signed Cuban right-hander Miguel Gonzalez and he's expected to slot in behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. That leaves Kyle Kendrick (4.70 ERA in 30 starts) and Jonathan Pettibone (4.04 ERA in 18 starts). They added free agent Marlon Byrd to play right field and re-signed catcher Carlos Ruiz.

Will they trade Jonathan Papelbon? His name has been out there in trade rumor land, but the Phillies undoubtedly value him more than other teams would. Considering he's still owed $39 million over the next three years if his final option year vests, good luck finding a taker, especially with viable closers (Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit) available via free agency. Plus, the Phillies' bullpen had the second-worst ERA in the NL, so they're not dealing from a position of strength.

When do the Cliff Lee rumors start up again? They've been quiet so far, but when the Phillies are 10 games under .500 in late June, expect them to ramp up again.

New York Mets

What do they need? For 2015 to arrive as soon as possible. The outfield was horrible, so they signed Curtis Granderson and Chris Young. They'll flank defensive wizard Juan Lagares, giving the Mets one of the better defensive outfields in the league.

Will they trade Ike Davis? Seems likely. Lucas Duda will move to first base with the outfield lined up, making Davis expendable. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are possible destinations.

Who will be the Opening Day shortstop? For now, Ruben Tejada. But maybe the Mets sign Stephen Drew to a multiyear contract. As with Granderson, they'll bank on Matt Harvey returning in 2015 and hope Granderson and Drew can remain productive.

Miami Marlins

What do they need? The Marlins were last in runs in the NL -- way last. They scored nearly 100 fewer runs than the Cubs. They've added catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and veteran infielder Rafael Furcal (who missed all of last season). They do have some young outfielders, meaning the glaring black hole is third base.

Is this the end of the Logan Morrison era? Reports say the Marlins have talked to at least 10 teams about Morrison, using him as bait to acquire a third baseman. They could then sign former Pirate Garrett Jones to play first base.

Who do teams really want? Giancarlo Stanton, of course. One team that has an extra third baseman is the Diamondbacks, with Martin Prado and Matt Davidson. The D-backs, coincidentally, are looking for a corner outfielder. Maybe the Marlins could pry Davidson and one of the young Arizona starters (Archie Bradley, Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley).

Let's move on to the AL West as we get ready for the winter meetings. We'll do the National League on Sunday.

Oakland A's

What do they need? The A's were busy last week, acquiring closer Jim Johnson from the Orioles, signing starter Scott Kazmir, and trading for outfielder Craig Gentry and reliever Luke Gregerson, a slick flurry of moves by Billy Beane. They could still upgrade second base; Eric Sogard played well there last year, but he's more of a utility infielder. The A's could also acquire a better defensive shortstop and move Jed Lowrie to second base.

Any moves left? Beane would love to unload Brett Anderson, the talented lefty who has made just 24 starts the past three seasons and is due $8 million in 2014 (plus a $1.5 million buyout). Beane will likely wait for the remaining free-agent starters to get inked and shop Anderson to those teams who didn't get one of the expensive guys.

Can they win a third straight division title? Sure. Like the past two seasons, it's a roster built on depth more than star power. The big question is whether Sonny Gray can replace Bartolo Colon, who went 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts. He certainly looked good down the stretch and in the postseason. Even if they trade Anderson, they still have six starters, with Tommy Milone now the odd man out. If Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick hit like they did in 2012, the offense should pick up some of the slack for a rotation that may be quite as good.

Texas Rangers

What do they need? Another middle-of-the-order bat. The Rangers were seventh in the AL in runs scored, which playing in their home park means the offense was mediocre at best. Prince Fielder will help and Jurickson Profar should come close to matching what Ian Kinsler gave them at second base, but right now the outfield would be Alex Rios, Leonys Martin and rookie Michael Choice (acquired from Oakland) with Mitch Moreland at DH.

So, Shin-Soo Choo? Assuming they let Nelson Cruz walk (as they should), and with Mike Napoli going back to Boston, Choo is the big target left. Expect a bidding war between the Rangers, Tigers and Mariners.

Any trades? If the Rangers don't want to lose their first-round pick for signing Choo, maybe they dig into the farm system. How about going after Jose Bautista or Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier?

Los Angeles Angels

What do they need? Besides Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton to play better? Starting pitching. Right now the rotation would be Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Garrett Richards, Joe Blanton (ouch) and Matt Shoemaker (who?). Hey, about bringing back Ervin Santana?

Does anybody really want Mark Trumbo? The Angels used one trade chip (Peter Bourjos) to acquire David Freese and they're hoping Trumbo will land them a solid starter, but general managers will see his .294 OBP as much as his 34 home runs. The Orioles are a possibility, but there just isn't a big market for first basemen and the Angels likely overvalue Trumbo.

Where will Howie Kendrick be in 2014? Probably not with the Angels. A trade to the Royals for some of their bullpen depth makes sense, and the Braves would like to upgrade over Dan Uggla. The Angels could slot Grant Green at second if prospect Taylor Lindsey isn't ready.

Seattle Mariners

What do they need? More than Robinson Cano. They need help in the outfield, a No. 3 starter to put behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma and a designated hitter. Right now, the back of the rotation would include rookies Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, with Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer battling for the fifth spot. The outfield would be Michael Saunders, Dustin Ackley and Abraham Almonte.

Will they spend more money? They're going to try. They were definitely interested in Napoli, since they could use a right-handed batter to help balance out a lefty-heavy lineup. They may bring back Kendrys Morales, especially since there will be lukewarm interest in him after he was given a qualifying offer. The big catch would be Choo to play a corner outfield spot and give them a nice OBP guy in front of Cano.

Could they really land David Price? Sure, if they're willing to give up Walker and second baseman Nick Franklin, they could probably get the former Cy Young winner from the Rays. Preferably, they find a way to keep Walker and use Franklin as the main bait to get somebody like Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs.

Houston Astros

What do they need? Patience.

Hey, they signed Scott Feldman and traded for Dexter Fowler. Anything else in the works? GM Jeff Luhnow has said he'll upgrade the bullpen, which was historically awful last season. Hey, Mariano Rivera is a free agent.

Which prospects will arrive this year? Outfielder George Springer, who hit 37 home runs and stole 43 bases between Double-A and Triple-A, could break camp with the big league team. First baseman Jonathan Singleton will need more time in Triple-A after a disappointing season but could arrive at midseason. Mark Appel, last June's first overall pick, will be on the fast track and could reach Houston sometime this season.

Before the winter meetings begin, let's look at the key issues facing each team in the AL Central.

Detroit Tigers

What do they need? They've already been active, trading away Prince Fielder and Doug Fister and signing Joe Nathan, but everyone seems to think they have one big move left in them -- sign a free agent outfielder to play left field. Shin-Soo Choo is the best one remaining now that Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson are off the board.

Do you trust the bullpen depth? Not yet. They signed Nathan, but Drew Smyly is now in the rotation and Joaquin Benoit is a free agent. Hard-throwing Bruce Rondon will be expected to take a bigger role, but look for them to make another move here, maybe a lefty like Manny Parra or J.P. Howell.

How much better will the defense be? Much better. Some quick math. Fielder was minus-13 in Defensive Runs Saved in 2013; Cabrera was minus-3 when he last played there in 2011. Ian Kinsler was +11 in 2013 versus Omar Infante's minus-5. Jhonny Peralta and Jose Iglesias both rated at 0 DRS at shortstop, although most view Iglesias as the superior defender; let's say he's a +5 defender. Cabrera was minus-18 at third base; rookie Nick Castellanos isn't viewed as a great defender, so let's say he's minus-5 DRS. Overall, we're talking about potentially 40 runs better in infield defense. How happy are Max Scherzer and company right now?



Cleveland Indians

What do they need? The lineup looks set so they need a starting pitcher to replace free agent Ubaldo Jimenez. Maybe Ubaldo Jimenez?

How's the bullpen shaping up? Replacing Chris Perez at closer with Cody Allen should be a minor step up, but they've also lost Joe Smith, their primary setup guy in recent seasons. The Indians' pen went 33-16 in 2013 but a 3.62 ERA in 2013 -- eighth in the AL -- so the win-loss record was a little bit misleading. A trade is more likely here than spending on a free agent.

Will they be shopping Asdrubal Cabrera? This is an interesting one. Top prospect Francisco Lindor reached Double-A last season and just turned 20 years old, but his glove may be big-league ready. Could that lead to a trade for Cabrera, in the final year of his contract? It seems like a long shot to bet on Lindor being rushed, but the Indians could play Mike Aviles at short until Lindor is possibly ready at midseason.



Kansas City Royals

What do they need? Offense. The Royals were 11th in the AL in runs scored in 2013, scoring 28 fewer runs than the year before. Considering it's likely the pitching will regress at least a little bit after leading the league in runs allowed, they need to find more punch to remain a playoff contender. They were rumored to be in on Beltran, but he's gone, leaving second base as the one position they can upgrade.

Who could they get? The Angels have been shopping Howie Kendrick. Nick Franklin of the Mariners is available now that they have Robinson Cano. Brandon Phillips was rumored at one point to be available, but Reds GM Walt Jocketty has now said a trade involving him is unlikely. They could a take a chance on Dan Uggla. Or just stick with Emilio Bonifacio.

Umm, how good is the rotation? Right now, it needs help. James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy and Wade Davis don't look like a playoff rotation to me, although hard-throwing Yordano Ventura showed potential big-time potential in three September starts. The Royals have excess bullpen arms but will likely use them to upgrade second base and hope Duffy and Ventura can stick in the rotation.


Minnesota Twins

What do they need? The Twins already made their "big" splash by signing Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to help shore up the league's worst rotation. Otherwise, the Twins are primarily sitting tight and waiting for prospects like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to reach Minnesota.

Anybody they can or should be shopping? Josh Willingham is signed for $7 million for 2014, and he's superfluous for a rebuilding team. Unfortunately, the Twins should have traded him a year ago when he was coming off a 35-homer season. After hitting .208 with 14 home runs, he won't net much in return. But a team like the Orioles or Mariners that needs a left fielder or DH could take a chance.

Any chance the offense gets better? Only the Astros and White Sox scored fewer runs but don't look for anything but minor moves, such as signing a backup catcher (John Buck?). The outfield could use help, but the Twins will likely give Aaron Hicks another shot in center, give Oswaldo Arcia a full season in right, and hope Buxton tears up the minors and joins this group in 2015.


Chicago White Sox

What do they need? Just about everything.

No, seriously, will they do something? Well, they did sign Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu while also re-signing Paul Konerko. Adam Dunn is still here, but he's a 34-homer guy that would be difficult to trade. The "strength" of the team is a rotation that did have a 3.99 ERA (eighth in the AL), but there isn't depth there to trade from.

Would they trade Chris Sale? Can't see that happening; he's signed to a team-friendly contract through 2019 and is clearly the face of the franchise.

Things have happened sooner than normal this offseason, but several of the top free agents are still out there and some big names -- led by David Price -- may be available in trade. Here are three questions for each team heading into the winter meetings. We'll cover the American League today and the National League on Sunday.

Boston Red Sox

What do they need? They filled their biggest hole at first base when they re-signed Mike Napoli on Friday night. The Red Sox also have to decide if they want to hand center field over to Jackie Bradley Jr., a plus defender with a good eye at the plate but who is still working on developing his hit tool. They could slide Shane Victorino over to center field and sign another outfielder, but Victorino was so good defensively in right that he provided excellent value with his glove there.

What will they do at the winter meetings? They could end up being pretty quiet. They've signed Edward Mujica but could be looking for more bullpen help.

Will they trade a starting pitcher? The current five-man rotation wouldn't include Ryan Dempster or Brandon Workman, but you need more than five starters to get through a season and Dempster's contract makes him difficult to trade unless the Red Sox picked up a chunk of his $13.25 million salary.

Tampa Bay Rays

What do they need? The right return for Price. Andrew Friedman will probably talk with 25 other general managers at some point (sorry, he's not going to an AL East rival) to see what he can get for the former Cy Young winner. The Rays will want a major-league ready prospect like they got last year in Wil Myers. That may have been a once-in-a-lifetime kind of deal, however, so the Rays may have to weigh taking lower-level prospects -- but more of them -- this time around.

What about first base? James Loney gave them a good one-year return last year, so now they need to find the next Loney. Trouble is, the first-base market isn't good other than Loney. They could move Matt Joyce there or look to acquire somebody like Ike Davis from the Mets. A Joyce-Davis trade seems like a perfect match of needs.

Who's in the rotation if they trade Price? Without Price, it shapes up as Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi. That's why any trade involving Price may require a starting pitcher as part of the bounty (say, Taijuan Walker from the Mariners).

Baltimore Orioles

What do they need? The Orioles were 12th in the AL in rotation ERA, so that's an obvious place to upgrade. The top five on paper isn't horrible -- Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris and Kevin Gausman -- but that's mostly a group of No. 3s. They need an ace, but good luck getting one.

What about left field and DH? Nate McLouth just signed with the Nationals, so they need to do something there. A big hole was DH, where the Orioles hit .234 with a .289 OBP. Orioles second basemen weren't great either, hitting .236 with a .300 OBP, but they'll likely let Jemile Weeks and Ryan Flaherty battle it out. Nelson Cruz is a free-agent possibility for left field or DH, but the Orioles may not want to lose their draft pick to sign a guy with a mediocre OBP and durability issues. A gamble and somebody like Franklin Gutierrez may make sense.

Do they go after a closer? Possibly. Trading Jim Johnson leaves a void in the ninth -- although not a big void considering Johnson blew nine saves in 2013. They have options in Tommy Hunter and Darren O'Day, but both have sizable platoon splits. They're both best in setup roles where Buck Showalter can get matchups, so don't be surprised if the O's sign Fernando Rodney or Joaquin Benoit (they also signed Ryan Webb on Friday).

New York Yankees

What do they need? How about an MVP-caliber second baseman who hit .300 with power and never misses a game? Anybody like that available? OK, the Yankees have to move on from Robinson Cano and they did that by signing Carlos Beltran and re-signing Hiroki Kuroda. They may still have a little money left over to go after one more veteran starter like Bronson Arroyo or, better yet, Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka (if he gets posted).

What about third base? At some point, they'll need a backup plan if Alex Rodriguez's suspension is upheld. Stone-gloved Eduardo Nunez is not the answer, but the free-agent market is weak. Juan Uribe? Maybe. Michael Young is a defensive liability. They tried the Kevin Youkilis experiment last year. You have to think the Yankees will be discussing third-base options with other teams. They could possibly shop Brett Gardner or Ichiro Suzuki, although Ichiro wouldn't bring a quality starter in return.

Who replaces Mariano Rivera? The Yankees could slide David Robertson into the role. He's been a dominant eighth-inning guy with a 1.91 ERA over the past three seasons. But that just opens up another hole. Free agent Grant Balfour has been rumored.

Toronto Blue Jays

What do they need? Starting pitching and more starting pitching. The Blue Jays entered last season as World Series favorites, expecting to have two aces in R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson. But Dickey couldn't repeat his Cy Young season, Johnson imploded, Brandon Morrow got hurt, and Ricky Romero spent most of the season in the minors. The Jays ended up with a 4.81 rotation ERA, worse even than the Astros.

Who could they go after? The Jays' estimated 2014 payroll is already above what it was in 2013, so there doesn't appear to be room to do much here. So it looks quantity over quality, with the likes of Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and J.A. Happ battling for spots behind Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Morrow.

Could they trade Jose Bautista? Sure, they could trade Bautista, signed for two more years at the now-bargain rate of $14 million, and use that money to sign a pitcher. Do they trust Anthony Gose or Moses Sierra to deliver on an everyday basis?