Public Policy Polling

Highly Accurate Polling Across the Country

Florida/North Carolina Question Suggestions

Our polls for this weekend will be in Florida and North Carolina.

In Florida our main focus will obviously be next year's race for Governor. What potential match ups should we test, and beyond that race what else should we delve into in Florida?

In North Carolina our main focus will be next year's Senate contest. You can see what candidates we included last month here. Are there any new Republicans we should put into the mix this time? And any other NC poll question ideas you have would be much appreciated as well.

Thanks as always for the good question suggestions!

Images of NRA, Congressional Republicans on the decline

PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas.

The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability from the week before the press conference when a national poll we did found it at 48/41. Its image has taken a hit with both Democrats (from 29/59 to 22/67) and Republicans (71/19 to 66/18).

The NRA's focus on putting more guns in schools is likely what's driving the decline in the organization's image. Only 41% of voters support the organization's proposal to put armed police officers in schools across the country, with 50% opposed. Democrats (35/57) and independents (38/51) both oppose the push and even among Republicans only a narrow majority (52/39) supports it.

On the broader issue of giving teachers guns, only 27% of voters are supportive with 64% opposed. There's bipartisan opposition to that concept with Republicans (35/50), independents (31/59), and Democrats (19/77) all standing against it. Gun owners (37/52) oppose it as well.

The holidays and the fiscal cliff took a lot of the spotlight off gun control measures, but in general 53% of Americans say they support stricter gun laws with 40% opposed.

Congress emerged from the fiscal cliff debate with a 7% approval rating, with 81% of voters disapproving of it. But the two parties aren't going in for equal blame. While the Democrats in Congress aren't popular (-12 at 38/50) their approval rating is a net 48 points better than their Republican counterparts (-60 at 15/75).The Republicans in Congress have only a 25/61 approval rating even with the GOP base, suggesting the potential for 2014 to bring a lot of primary challenges.

The considerably higher esteem the Democrats in Congress have compared to the Republicans is extending to our early generic ballot polling for 2014- 47% of voters say they'd support the Democratic candidate for the House from their district if there was an election today to 41% who say they would vote for the GOP nominee.

McAuliffe has early lead in VA-Gov

PPP's first Virginia poll of 2013 finds Terry McAuliffe leading Ken Cuccinelli 46-41. When Bill Bolling is thrown into the mix as an independent candidate he gets 15%, with McAuliffe's lead expanding to 8 points at 40/32.

The story of the race at this point is really how unpopular Cuccinelli is. Only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. Even among Republicans there are significant doubts about him- only 48% see him favorably with a much higher than normal 23% of voters within his own party seeing him negatively.

That pause about Cuccinelli among Republicans is a big part of why McAuliffe has this early 5 point lead. 11% of Republicans say they would cross over to support McAuliffe if Cuccinelli was the nominee, compared to only 6% of Democrats who say they would vote for Cuccinelli. McAuliffe also has a 43/39 lead with independents, who give Cuccinelli a 31/46 favorability spread.

McAuliffe is essentially functioning as a generic Democratic candidate at this point. Only 51% of voters are familiar enough with him to have an opinion and those who have one are pretty evenly divided about him with 25% rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. His early lead has more to do with voters disliking Cuccinelli than actually liking him.

Congress somewhere below cockroaches, traffic jams, and Nickelback in Americans' esteem

Our newest national poll finds that Congress only has a 9% favorability rating with 85% of voters viewing it in a negative light. We've seen poll after poll after poll over the last year talking about how unpopular Congress is but really, what's the difference between an 11% or a 9% or a 7% favorability rating? So we decided to take a different approach and test Congress' popularity against 26 different things. And what we found is that Congress is less popular than cockroaches, traffic jams, and even Nickelback.

Here's what we found:

It's gross to have lice but at least they can be removed in a way that given the recent reelection rates members of Congress evidently can't: Lice 67 Congress 19

Brussel sprouts may have been disgusting as a kid, but evidently they're now a lot less disgusting than Congress: Brussel Sprouts 69 Congress 23

The NFL replacement refs may have screwed everything up, but voters think Congress is screwing everything up even worse: Replacement Refs 56 Congressmen 29 (the breakdown among Packers fans might be a little bit different).

Colonoscopies are not a terribly pleasant experience but at least they have some redeeming value that most voters aren't seeing in Congress: Colonoscopies 58 Congress 31

And you can make the same point about root canals: Root Canals 56 Congress 32

You might get a bad deal from a used car salesmen, but voters evidently think they're getting an even worse deal from Congress: Used Car Salesmen 57 Congress 32

Being stuff in traffic sucks, but voters are even less happy about being stuck with this Congress: Traffic Jams 56 Congress 34

America might have had to bail out France multiple times over the years but voters still have a more charitable opinion of it than Congress: France 46 Congress 37

Carnies may use loaded dice, but voters still think they have a better chance of winning with them than Congress: Carnies 39 Congress 31

It may be true that everyone hates Nickelback, but apparently everyone hates Congress even more: Nickelback 39 Congress 32

Genghis Khan did a lot of bad stuff but I guess it's faded from voters' minds in a way that Congress' recent misdeeds haven't: Genghis Khan 41 Congress 37

DC political pundits and Donald Trump aren't held in very high esteem by the population, but they still both manage to just barely edge Congress: DC political pundits 37 Congress 34 and Donald Trump 44 Congress 42

Cockroaches are a pretty good reason to call the exterminator but voters might be even more concerned if their homes were infested with members of Congress: Cockroaches 45 Congress 43

Now the news isn't all bad for Congress:

By relatively close margins it beats out Lindsey Lohan (45/41), playground bullies (43/38), and telemarketers (45/35). And it posts wider margins over the Kardashians (49/36), John Edwards (45/29), lobbyists (48/30), Fidel Castro (54/32), Gonorrhea (53/28), Ebola (53/25), Communism (57/23), North Korea (61/26), and meth labs (60/21)

But when you're less popular than cockroaches, Genghis Khan, traffic jams, and yes even Nickelback, well, it might be time to reevaluate.

Full results here

Voters support Corbett NCAA lawsuit, but down on him overall

Pennsylvania voters support Tom Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA...but it's still not doing much to improve his overall political fortunes.

52% of voters support Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA over its sanctions against Penn State, while 34% are opposed to it. That's a reflection of the fact that 62% of Pennsylvanians think the sanctions against the school were too strict, compared to only 27% who think they were 'about right' and 8% who think they were too lenient. 49% of voters in the state consider themselves to be fans of the Nittany Lions, and among those folks there's 63/23 support for the lawsuit. The 51% of voters who don't identify as Penn State fans are opposed to the suit by a 45/41 spread.

Despite the support for Corbett on the lawsuit, voters are still unhappy with his overall handling of the Penn State situation over the last few years. Only 27% approve of the way he's dealt with it to 50% who disapprove. That's contributing to overall approval numbers that continue to be very poor- only 38% of voters are happy with the job he's doing to 52% who disapprove. That -14 net approval ties him for the 4th most unpopular sitting Governor PPP has polled on.

We tested Corbett against 8 potential opponents for reelection in 2014, and he polls at only 40-42% against every one of them. The only one he actually trails in a head to head is his predecessor, Ed Rendell, who would start out with a 46/40 advantage were he to attempt the comeback. Corbett would be tied with Attorney General Kathleen Kane at 42%.

Pennsylvania and Virginia Question Suggestions

Pennsylvania and Virginia won our vote for where to poll this weekend.

In Pennsylvania our main focus will be next year's Gubernatorial race. What Democrats would you like to see us test in head to heads against Tom Corbett?

In Virginia we'll obviously poll the Governor's race but since the field for that seems pretty much set I'm more interested in what Republicans you'd like to see us test against Mark Warner for 2014.

Beyond the basic 2013/14 races what questions would you like to see us pursue on our Pennsylvania and Virginia polls?

We're also going to think about doing a national poll this weekend. If we were to, what questions would you like to see us ask on that one?

Thanks as always for the good suggestions and Happy New Year!

Levin up big on potential GOP foes

Debbie Stabenow won the Michigan Senate race by over 20 points this fall, and Carl Levin could be headed for a similar outcome if he decides to run for another term in 2014.

PPP's newest poll finds Levin leading 5 potential Republican opponents by anywhere from 18-22 points for reelection. He's up 52/34 on Congresswoman Candice Miller, 53/32 on Congressman Justin Amash, 53/31 on State Senator Roger Kahn, 54/32 on Attorney General Bill Schuette, and 55/31 on Congressman Mike Rogers.

None of those Republicans are particularly well known statewide. Miller has 57% name recognition but after her it's 40% for Schuette, 35% for Rogers, 28% for Amash, and only 15% for Kahn. It is likely these match ups would become closer if any of them ever came to fruition because so many of the undecideds are Republicans, but at any rate Levin is not looking particularly vulnerable.

Other notes from Michigan:

-In the wake of her surprisingly dominant reelection, Debbie Stabenow is posting the best approval numbers we've ever found for her. 55% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 36% who disapprove of her. She's at 53/37 with independents and earns 18% approval even from Republican voters.

Snyder's popularity plummets

Just last month when we took a first look at the 2014 landscape we talked about how much Rick Snyder had improved his popularity during his second year in office and how he led a generic Democrat for reelection by 6 points, even as Barack Obama won the state comfortably.

Last week he threw all that out the window.

We now find Snyder as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 38% of voters approve of him to 56% who disapprove. There are only 2 other sitting Governors we've polled on who have a worse net approval rating than Snyder's -18. He's dropped a net 28 points from our last poll on him, the weekend before the election, when he was at a +10 spread (47/37).

There's not much doubt that it's the right to work law and his embrace of other actions by the Republican legislature that are driving this precipitous drop in Snyder's popularity. Only 41% of voters in the state support the right to work legislation, while 51% are opposed to it. If voters got to decide the issue directly only 40% of them say they would vote to keep the law enacted, while 49% would vote to overturn it. This comes on the heels of voters overturning Snyder's signature emergency managers law last month. The simple reality is that Michigan voters like unions- 52% have a favorable opinion of them to only 33% with a negative one.

Snyder trails every Democrat we tested against him in a hypothetical match up. He's down 49/38 to 2010 opponent Virg Bernero, 47/39 to Congressman Gary Peters, 46/38 to State Senator Gretchen Whitmer, and 44/39 to former Congressman Mark Schauer. The Bernero numbers are what's most striking there. Snyder defeated Bernero by 18 points in 2010, so Bernero's 11 point advantage represents a 29 point reversal. The Democrats all lead Snyder despite having very little name recognition- only 44% of voters are familiar with Bernero, 36% with Peters, 28% with Schauer, and 27% with Whitmer.

The Republicans in the legislature are even more unpopular than Snyder after their spate of last minute legislation.

Kentucky Miscellany

If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for President in 2016, she could win Kentucky. Against one of its home state Senators, Rand Paul. Despite the fact that the Republican nominee has won the state by at least 15 points in each of the last four Presidential elections. That, maybe more than any other data point that's come out in the last month, shows what a formidable candidate she would be and how important it is for Democrats that she run.

Clinton has a 48/42 favorability rating with Kentucky voters. By comparison Barack Obama's approval rating is 38/59. Clinton would lead Rand Paul 47-42 and Marco Rubio 48-40 in hypothetical match ups. That's because Clinton gets 73-74% of the Democratic vote in those match ups, similar to the 72-73% of the Republican vote that Paul and Rubio get. The reason Democrats lose time after time in Kentucky despite having a large registration advantage is that a very large number of Democrats don't vote Democratic for President, but Clinton would win over a lot of the party faithful who have declined to support Obama, Kerry, and Gore.

Paul's 43/39 approval makes him more popular than his senior colleague Mitch McConnell. Steve Beshear is the most popular of the state's politicians with a 51/34 approval rating. Despite Beshear's popularity voters in the state say they would generally prefer a Republican than a Democrat to be their next Governor, 42/39.

A hypothetical 2016 match up between Beshear and Paul would have Beshear ahead by a 46/44 margin. Paul would lead a hypothetical match up with Ashley Judd just 47/46, a little better than her 4 point deficit against McConnell on yesterday's poll. Taking a longer term view to the Judd for Senate craze, her prospects for election might be better in 2016 with Clinton on the ticket than they would be in 2014.

Other notes from Kentucky:

-Kentucky fans out number Louisville ones by a 66/17 margin. This is one of the most lopsided rivalries we've ever polled on. John Calipari has a 49/15 favorability rating, a good deal better than Rick Pitino's 44/32. Louisville fans support their school's move to the ACC by a 70/7 margin.

-The Bengals win big as Kentucky's favorite NFL team with 25% to 11% for the Cowboys and Packers, 9% for the Colts, 8% for the Bears, 7% for the Steelers, 5% for the Titans, and less than 1% for the Rams.

-And in very important news, Kentucky voters prefer Jim Beam over Jack Daniels 20-18.

Full results here

North Carolina Miscellany

-Pat McCrory is headed into office as a pretty popular figure, but voters aren't happy with his decision to remain employed at Moore& Van Allen as he prepares to take office.

McCrory has a 53% favorability rating with only 25% of voters viewing him unfavorably. He's predictably bery popular with Republicans (82/8) and independents (50/31) but what really makes his numbers impressive is that he come close to breaking even with Democrats at 33/35.

Nevertheless voters are not happy with how McCrory is handling his transition into office. 51% think that McCrory's continued employment at a law firm that lobbies the state represents a conflict of interest to only 31% who think it is not. And 54% think he should resign his job immediately to 25% who don't think that's necessary. McCrory was elected due to his broad support from independents but the think both that the job is a conflict (51/36) and that he should leave it immediately (54/30).

McCrory was elected because he promised to do things dfferently in Raleigh- he risks eroding the good will he's going into office with by the way he's handling parts of his transition.

-Only 31% of North Carolinians think the Post Office in downtown Raleigh should be renamed after Jesse Helms to 48% who are opposed. Both African Americans (14/61) and white voters (36/44) are against the renaming. Even among Republicans there's only 44% support for it, while Democrats are far more unified in their opposition (60%).  Independents oppose it 28/47 as well.