Oncoming Latino Voters

Latinos cast one of every ten votes in the 2012 presidential election, according to the National Election Exit Poll. The simple passage of time alone will double Latino’s potential power at the polls over the course of the next four presidential
election cycles.

The growth of the Latino electorate is not subject to any future decisions on immigration policy. Rather, steady increases in the number of Latino eligible voters will occur as Latinos already born in the United States as citizens with full voting rights reach voting age. Their emergence is the result of a fundamental change in the demographic dynamics of the Latino vote. Because of high birth rates, Latinos constitute a much larger share of the youth population than of the adult population, and a much higher proportion of those young Latinos are native-born U.S. citizens than in their parents’ generation.

In 2011, the year the data used here were collected, Latinos made up nearly 10.5 percent of eligible voters, i.e. U.S. citizens at least 18 years old. (The Latino share was generally estimated to have surpassed 11 percent by the time of the November 2012 election.) Meanwhile, in 2011 the Latino share of U.S. citizens under 18 years old was more than twice as high: 22.7 percent.

Like the current population, those oncoming Latino voters are not evenly distributed around the country. This map illustrates the distribution at the state level of young Latinos who are U.S. citizens and who are under the age of 18. The percentages, which are visible by clicking on a state or by referencing the TABLE, vary considerably. For example, in Texas the share is 48, meaning that 48 percent of all U.S. citizens under the age of 18 in Texas are Latinos. Meanwhile, in Virginia the share is 11 percent.

The Mexican Migration Monitor

The Mexican Migration Monitor is a joint project of the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana. This publication assesses key trends in migration flows by analyzing multiple indicators, including previously unpublished data from the Border Survey of Mexican Migration.

To view the Mexican Migration Monitor and download the report visit MigrationMonitor.com

Potential Beneficiaries of Deferred Action

Since the announcement of Deferred Action, which offers young undocumented immigrants that arrived in the U.S. as children and that meet certain other criteria, reprieve from deportation and authorization to work, a flurry of analysis has been undertaken on the effects of this initiative. Several estimates have emerged on the size of the population of potential beneficiaries of DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), including detailed estimates of the demographic composition and geographic distribution of the population.

This map illustrates the total number of potential DACA beneficiaries by congressional district with the darker the color corresponding to higher numbers of potential beneficiaries. If you click on any congressional district you will see a detailed profile of the composition of the total DACA population broken down by both immediate and future beneficiaries as well as region of origin. The data that drives this map was produced by the Immigration Policy Center in conjunction with Rob Paral & Associates.