HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
736 AM EDT MON MAR 11 2013

VALID 00Z TUE MAR 12 2013 - 00Z TUE MAR 19 2013

SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERM WILL SINK SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR 40N/158W
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER ALASKA BREAKS
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY... MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 33N/160W BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE NARROWED THEIR SPREAD SINCE 24 HRS AGO...
AND GENERALLY KEEP THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF 30N OVER THE
WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY BUT THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER/DRIER THAN THE ECMWF /PW
VALUES OVER 1.70IN PER THE ECMWF RATHER THAN UNDER 1.50IN PER THE
GFS/. GEFS PROBABILITIES OF PW VALUES OVER 1.50IN AROUND 00Z/16
MAXIMIZE NEAR 30 PERCENT AROUND MAUI. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES
ARE MUCH WETTER WITH QPF THAN THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS... BUT WOULD
PREFER TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE GIVEN THE ONLY RECENT DECREASE IN
ENSEMBLE SPREAD.


FRACASSO