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ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 1999 SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NOW HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THIS MORNING CONVECTION INCREASED AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BECAME MORE COHERENT. THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO COLD WATER AND CONVECTION IS ALREADY DECREASING...SO I EXPECT THE DEPRESSION TO BE SHORT-LIVED. INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AS THE CENTER IS HARD TO FIND...BUT THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 315/3. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE DEPRESSION AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE SHALLOW BAM. GIVEN THE TRACK AND COLD SSTS...NO WARNINGS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 21.4N 111.6W 30 KTS 12HR VT 24/0600Z 21.6N 112.0W 30 KTS 24HR VT 24/1800Z 21.9N 112.6W 25 KTS 36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.4N 113.8W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 26/1800Z ...DISSIPATED NNNN