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ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999 ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS UNDER A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY QUESTION THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE TURN WILL OCCUR. THE NOGAPS OFFERS A ALTERNATE SCENARIO...WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO BREAK THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CONVECTION... WHICH IS DISPLACED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS EASTERLY SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED GAINING WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE SYSTEM AND COOLER WATER IS LIKELY TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THUS...THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.9N 118.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.4N 120.1W 30 KTS 24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.9N 122.3W 35 KTS 36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.2N 124.5W 40 KTS 48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.5N 127.0W 45 KTS 72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 131.5W 50 KTS NNNN