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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 1999 BEATRIZ HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING THAT A RAPID WEAKENING IS OCCURRING. BEATRIZ IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE MAY BE SOME TROPICAL STORM GUSTS NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...WE KNOW THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY RULES WHICH WERE NOT DESIGNED FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEMS OVER EASTERN PACIFIC COOL WATERS. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/09. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL MOTION STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED LATER TODAY BUT...AS USUAL...A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.8N 132.7W 30 KTS 12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W 25 KTS 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.2N 136.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN