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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999 BEATRIZ REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A CLEAR-CUT 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE. CURRENT DVORAK ANALYSES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...SO THE WIND ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY CONTINUES AT 105 KNOTS. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES TO CAUSE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE U. OF WISC. CIMSS HOMEPAGE SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OUT THROUGH 132W LONGITUDE SOUTH OF 20N. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO SST COOLING TO 24-25 DEGREES C ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...AVN...FORECAST INITIALIZED AT 06Z SHOWS A VORTEX FORMING A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEATRIZ. THAT MODEL RUN ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL VORTICES FORMING FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE RESULT IS A LARGE ELLIPTICAL CIRCULATION EXTENDING NEARLY 1000 N MI EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM BEATRIZ IN THE 2-3 DAY FORECAST. THIS INFLUENCES THE AVN TRACK FORECAST OF THE HURRICANE...SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION AND TURNING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. THE BAM TRACKS ARE LIKELY ALSO ALTERED BY THESE DEVELOPMENTS. BECAUSE THE AVN RUN DOES NOT LOOK ENTIRELY REALISTIC... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND BEATRIZ IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.8N 121.8W 105 KTS 12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W 105 KTS 24HR VT 14/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W 100 KTS 36HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 127.3W 95 KTS 48HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KTS 72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W 75 KTS NNNN