U.S. Economy, Events in Middle East Affect Asia, Advisers Say

1 October 2008 By Jane Morse Staff Writer

Obama, McCain advisers agree that regional interests are intertwined

Washington – Foreign policy advisers for both U.S. presidential candidates agree nations are finding themselves increasingly interdependent on other countries and other regions.

The U.S. economic crisis, for example, affects everyone, as does the turbulence in the Middle East.

U.S. debt is now held not only by China and Japan, but by many other countries in the world, according to Ambassador Robert Gelbard. This debt, he says, has a serious effect not just on the U.S. economy, but on other countries as well.

Gelbard, who retired from the U.S. Foreign Service and is now chairman and co-founder of Washington Global Partners, a strategic advisory and consulting service, is advising Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee for president. He spoke at a recent policy debate sponsored by the National Bureau of Asian Research, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution.

He was joined in the debate, held at the Washington National Press Club on September 22, by Frank Jannuzi, an East Asia specialist for the Democratic staff of the Foreign Relations Committee. Jannuzi reports to Joseph Biden, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and Obama’s vice presidential running mate.

On the Republican side were Michael Green, senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Daniel Blumenthal, a member of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission. Both serve as foreign policy advisers to presidential candidate John McCain, a senator of Arizona.

Gelbard said Obama would see that the United States makes the necessary reforms for “dramatic changes” that would repair the U.S. economy.

Green, speaking for the McCain camp, said U.S. economic reforms undertaken in a McCain administration would not impinge on a policy dedicated to free trade and open markets.

Energy Security

Speaking for McCain, Green said U.S. actions in the Middle East also are of immediate concern to Asia, where U.S. allies in the region depend heavily on energy resources in the Middle East.

An unconditional withdrawal from Iraq, he said, would “create an intense anxiety that the United States is going to cede Iraq to forces that would bring chaos to the broader Middle East and upset their [Asia’s] energy supplies.”

One reason McCain pushed for an increase in U.S. forces in Iraq, Green said, was because he recognized the role of the Middle East on Asian energy security.

But Gelbard, speaking for the Obama campaign, noted that Iraq now has a $79 billion budget surplus generated by oil supplies. “We look forward to the Iraqis being able to finance their own programs instead of the United States having to pay $12 billion a month to sustain them,” he said.

Obama’s 16-month timetable for withdrawal of U.S. military forces, Gelbard said, would pressure Iraq to pass the kinds of laws, including those mandating the sharing of oil wealth, needed to make Iraq sustainable again.

The United States would not completely leave Iraq, Gelbard said.

“There would continue to be serious U.S. engagement, including military engagement,” he said. “And one part of that would be to make sure that those oil fields would continue to be pumping and flowing and that new drilling, new exploration would take place.”

Pakistan and Afghanistan 

Gelbard, speaking for the Obama campaign, said the United States needs to focus its military forces “on the nexus of terror in this world, which is the Afghanistan/Pakistan problem.” This region, he said, is “the most dangerous area in the world.”

Gelbard, however, added that the United States also must make clear to all the democratically oriented institutions in Pakistan – including the government leadership – that the United States will remain fully engaged with the country to help it become sustainable and stable over the long term.

Regarding Afghanistan, Gelbard said the United States, must demonstrate long-term commitments that country – not only militarily, but also in terms of economic and democratic development. Jannuzi said that Obama has authored a $7.5 billion, five-year plan to stabilize that country

Gelbard said Obama would seek to “re-engage” America’s NATO allies by convincing them to contribute more troops and financial aid to stabilize the Afghanistan. NATO countries, he said, must realize that the heroin produced in Afghanistan is going to Europe, not to the United States, and helps finance the Taliban.

McCain, according to his advisers, believes an early U.S. troop pullout from Iraq would make the situation in Afghanistan worse.

“You can’t imagine anything that would embolden the Taliban or al-Qaida in Afghanistan and on the Pakistan side of the border more than the sight of American forces retreating because there wasn’t political will at home to see the job through,” said Green.

But Gelbard said any increase in U.S. troop strengths in Afghanistan would have to mean a drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq.

“Senator Obama certainly agrees there needs to be more troops in Afghanistan,” Gelbard said.  “But the question is: ‘Where do they come from?’”

“We need to get those troops moved from Iraq,” Gelbard said, “because there are no other places where we can find troops, certainly from the United States.”

For additional information, see “No Clear Winner in First Presidential Debate” and “Both U.S. Presidential Candidates “Profoundly Shaped” by Asia.”