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Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 0.2% in October from September
Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 0.2% in October from September
BTS 57-10Dave Smallen
202-366-5568
Wednesday, December 8, 2010 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 0.2 percent in October from its September level, rising for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the Freight TSI has risen 5.7 percent over the last 17 months, starting in June 2009, after declining 15.3 percent in the previous 10 months beginning in August 2008. The index has increased in 13 of the last 17 months (Table 2). Through the first 10 months of 2010, however, the index declined 0.7 percent (Table 3). For additional historic data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
The October Freight TSI of 98.9 is a 5.7 percent increase from the recent low of 93.5 reached in May 2009. In May 2009, the index was at its lowest level since June 1997. The October Freight TSI is down 12.4 percent from its historic peak of 112.9 reached in May 2006.
Although the index rose 3.2 percent from October 2009 to October 2010, it remains below the level of every other October since 2001 when it was 98.7 (Table 4). January 2010 was the first month since July 2008 in which the Freight TSI exceeded the level of the same month of the previous year. The index has exceeded the previous year's level every month since January but still remains below the level of recent earlier years.
The freight index is down 10.1 percent in the five years from October 2005 and up 0.1 percent in the 10 years from October 2000 despite recent declines (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the November index is scheduled for Jan. 12.
For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Transportation Services Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 1.1 percent in October from its September level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI October 2010 level of 113.8 was 2.9 percent above the October 2009 level after a 2.8 percent decline from October 2008 to October 2009 (Table 7). The index is up 4.8 percent in five years and up 11.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel conducted in the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.4 percent in October from its September level (Table 8). The combined TSI October 2010 level of 102.2 was 3.2 percent higher than the October 2009 level (Table 9). The combined index is down 6.6 percent in five years and up 2.4 percent in 10 years despite recent declines (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for June (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The June Freight TSI is 102.7, revised from the 97.9 reported in last month's release. The June Passenger TSI is 112.7, revised from 111.2. The June Combined TSI is 104.9, revised from 100.8. The TSI for July, August, September and October are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
More information about the comprehensive revision conducted with the July 2009 release is provided under 2009 Comprehensive Revision at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since April 2010
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
| Freight | Passenger | Combined | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| April | 102.8 | 0.5 | 111.0 | 0.2 | 104.5 | 0.5 |
| May | 102.6 | -0.2 | 111.8 | 0.7 | 104.6 | 0.0 |
| JuneR | 102.7 | 0.1 | 112.7 | 0.8 | 104.9 | 0.3 |
| JulyP | 98.2 | -4.3 | 111.2 | -1.3 | 101.1 | -3.6 |
| AugustP | 97.6 | -0.6 | 111.5 | 0.2 | 100.7 | -0.4 |
| SeptemberP | 98.7 | 1.0 | 112.6 | 1.0 | 101.7 | 1.0 |
| OctoberP | 98.9 | 0.2 | 113.8 | 1.1 | 102.2 | 0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2007-2010
Percent change from
previous month
| 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | 2009 % Growth | 2010 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.6 | 2.3 | -2.5 | 0.9 |
| February | -0.3 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| March | 1.9 | -1.4 | -3.6 | 1.3 |
| April | -0.7 | 0.6 | -1.8 | 0.5 |
| May | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| June | -1.0 | -0.8 | 0.6 | (R) 0.1 |
| July | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | (P) -4.3 |
| August | 0.7 | -2.2 | 0.7 | (P) -0.6 |
| September | -1.0 | -1.6 | 0.1 | (P) 1.0 |
| October | 1.7 | -0.6 | -0.9 | (P) 0.2 |
| November | 0.6 | -2.2 | 2.8 | |
| December | -0.1 | -2.8 | 1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2001-2010
Percent change from December of previous year
December to October
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 0.8 | -17.4 | -4.9 |
| 2002 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2003 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| 2004 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| 2005 | -0.7 | 1.8 | -0.1 |
| 2006 | -1.6 | 3.0 | -0.4 |
| 2007 | -0.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 2008 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.8 |
| 2009 | -4.6 | -0.1 | -3.5 |
| 2010P | -0.7 | 3.6 | 0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 98.7 | -0.1 |
| 2002 | 103.5 | 4.9 |
| 2003 | 106.1 | 2.5 |
| 2004 | 110.1 | 3.8 |
| 2005 | 110.0 | -0.1 |
| 2006 | 109.5 | -0.5 |
| 2007 | 109.3 | -0.2 |
| 2008 | 105.6 | -3.3 |
| 2009 | 95.8 | -9.3 |
| 2010P | 98.9 | 3.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Transportation
Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2010 (October to October)
| Since October... | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to October 2010 | Passenger TSI Percent change to October 2010 | Combined TSI Percent change to October 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| 2008 | 2 | -6.4 | 0.0 | -4.8 |
| 2007 | 3 | -9.5 | -3.4 | -8.0 |
| 2006 | 4 | -9.7 | 1.0 | -7.1 |
| 2005 | 5 | -10.1 | 4.8 | -6.6 |
| 2004 | 6 | -10.2 | 6.2 | -6.4 |
| 2003 | 7 | -6.8 | 16.0 | -1.5 |
| 2002 | 8 | -4.5 | 18.3 | 0.9 |
| 2001 | 9 | 0.2 | 36.6 | 8.7 |
| 2000 | 10 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 2.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to October 2010 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2007-2010
Percent change from
previous month
| 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | 2009 % Growth | 2010 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 0.8 |
| February | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -2.3 |
| March | 2.0 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 2.4 |
| April | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| May | 2.4 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 0.7 |
| June | -2.1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | (R) 0.8 |
| July | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.3 | (P) -1.3 |
| August | 1.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | (P) 0.2 |
| September | 1.4 | -0.6 | -0.2 | (P) 1.0 |
| October | -0.8 | -1.4 | 0.2 | (P) 1.1 |
| November | -0.5 | -1.8 | -0.5 | |
| December | 0.9 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 83.3 | -18.2 |
| 2002 | 96.2 | 15.4 |
| 2003 | 98.1 | 2.0 |
| 2004 | 107.2 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | 108.6 | 1.3 |
| 2006 | 112.6 | 3.7 |
| 2007 | 117.8 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | 113.8 | -3.4 |
| 2009 | 110.6 | -2.8 |
| 2010P | 113.8 | 2.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2007-2010
Percent change from
previous month
| 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | 2009 % Growth | 2010 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.4 | 1.7 | -2.1 | 0.8 |
| February | -0.4 | -0.9 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| March | 1.9 | -1.0 | -2.9 | 1.6 |
| April | -0.6 | 0.7 | -1.0 | 0.5 |
| May | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| June | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.6 | (R) 0.3 |
| July | -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | (P) -3.6 |
| August | 0.8 | -2.0 | 0.5 | (P) -0.4 |
| September | -0.4 | -1.3 | 0.0 | (P) 1.0 |
| October | 1.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | (P) 0.4 |
| November | 0.3 | -2.1 | 1.9 | |
| December | 0.2 | -2.4 | 0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October
Combined TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 94.0 | -5.8 |
| 2002 | 101.3 | 7.7 |
| 2003 | 103.7 | 2.4 |
| 2004 | 109.1 | 5.3 |
| 2005 | 109.4 | 0.3 |
| 2006 | 110.0 | 0.5 |
| 2007 | 111.1 | 1.0 |
| 2008 | 107.4 | -3.4 |
| 2009 | 99.0 | -7.8 |
| 2010P | 102.2 | 3.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.