This study supports the applied science strategy for monitoring and assessment plans by providing a quantitative approach for integrating hydrological and ecological models to establish targets for performance measures as defined by the Conceptual Ecological Models (CEM).
JEM is a partnership of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), and the University of Florida. The JEM website is at <http://jem.cr.usgs.gov/pages/home.aspx>
This task is to form an organizing council to oversee JEM and to determine needs for and to perform administration, oversight, and review. The organizing council will continue selected current projects (see task 2) and initiate new projects with a small group of principal investigators. The council will provide oversight and review of all projects.
Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center
Work planned for FY 2007/2008 includes the following subtasks:
1. Response of roseate spoonbills nesting in Florida Bay to hydrologic restoration
The primary objectives are to (1) quantify the changes in spatial distribution and success of nesting spoonbills relative to hydrologic patterns, (2) test hypotheses about the causal mechanisms for observed changes, (3) establish a science-based criteria for nesting distribution and success to be used as a performance measure for hydrologic restoration, and (4) estimate demographic parameters. To meet these objectives, we will use a combined field/modeling approach. Based on previous and concurrent research, hypothesized relationships between hydrology, fish populations, and spoonbill nesting distribution and success will be expressed in a simple, but spatially explicit, conceptual model.
2. Decision support tools for adaptive ecosystem management
The specific objectives are (1) Establish and test a set of decision management/support tools (including both software and hardware) to integrate discipline-specific information and decision preferences within the Decomp Adaptive Management Plan (DAMP) and (2) Facilitate several meetings or small workshops to introduce Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) principles and to establish the DAMP decision objectives, criteria and ecosystem information into an MCDA decision software framework.
3. Computer Simulation Modeling of Wading Birds of the Everglades/Big Cypress Region
We propose to use long term research and monitoring data on wading birds in southern Florida to complete a landscape model to evaluate restoration alternatives in Everglades wetlands and to extend the model to Big Cypress wetlands.
4. Habitat suitability model for Everglades crayfish
The existing crayfish index model was developed in 1998. Since then, a number of field studies have been completed that provide new information for improved modeling of both species. Developing spatially and temporally explicit Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models that predict relative crayfish abundance from environmental drivers (e.g., hydrology) is the objective of this project.
5. Ecological assessment models
This subtask is to develop assessment models that will forecast responses of selected performance measures to restoration plans in a manner that is testable through research and monitoring. These assessments models also can be used to set hypothetical targets for restoration.
6. User interface
A graphically-based, spatially referenced interface will be developed to integrate hydrological and ecological models. The interface will be able to input and output a variety of formats including ATLSS, ESRI grid, and ASCII files. The interface will allow users to compare multiple alternatives including current conditions and no action. The output will be graphical, with maps designating areas where change occurred and numerical. Since the interface will be spatially referenced, it also will generate habitat units in terms of area affected. An additional feature of the interface will be a project based accounting system for comparing alternatives. This relational database will link numerical and graphical outputs in a manner designed to facilitate retrieval, display, and evaluation.
Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center
The work for FY 2007 is divided into the following subtasks
1. EDEN-ELM Integration - The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) at <http://sofia.usgs.gov/eden/>) may be considered a (largely) correlative model of the spatial and temporal distribution of water stage and depths in most of the greater Everglades region. Similarly, the Everglades Landscape Model (ELM, <http://my.sfwmd.gov/elm>) estimates the spatio-temporal distribution of water stage and depth, albeit using more mechanistic algorithms. It is anticipated that the EDEN will serve as a unified framework for integrating ecological research with near-real time hydrologic attributes in the Everglades, in addition to being used to help assess the status of Everglades restoration projects.
The result(s) of this subtask will be a consistent framework for better understanding spatial and temporal changes in land surface elevation, water levels, water quality, and aspects of plant/habitat distributions within most of the greater Everglades region. Completion of this subtask will include: reconciling topography data, integrating EDEN-ELM data sets by providing analysis of spatio-temporal consistency of water depth estimates from EDEN and ELM for their time domains, and providing temporal summaries of ELM output of ecological Performance Measures for incorporation into EDEN framework, with summaries of the apparent effects of ecological process feedbacks on hydrology, water quality, land elevation, and vegetation.
2. ELM Training
The result of this subtask will be some students/trainees who are capable of preparing, running, and interpreting output from the regional ELM, either at the 500 or 1000 m grid scales. This objective will likely be met for a somewhat limited subset of students who have prior experience in spatio-temporal hydrologic and/or ecosystem/landscape modeling. The initial subtask will involve the determination of the scope of the training, based on results of the initial training in August 2007 and agency needs. As with the initial August 2007 training sessions, the advanced sessions will attempt to be inclusive of individuals with somewhat limited experience in dynamic spatial modeling of hydrology and ecology.
3. Fine-scale ELM Hydrology
The proposed method of obtaining fine-scaled, 500 m grid hydrology is to refine the Everglades Landscape Model (ELM, <http://my.sfwmd.gov/elm>), in order to run regional ELM simulations at that resolution (instead of the current 1000 m resolution for the regional application). The layered 2D dynamic hydrology of the ELM includes overland, groundwater, and canal flows, and vertically integrates surface and ground water. The result(s) of this subtask will be an application of the regional (>10,000 km2) ELM at a 500 m grid scale, with (complete model and) output from this Open Source application made available for input to other ecological models for CERP and other Everglades restoration projects.
Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center
1. JEM administration and oversight will continue
2. Develop approaches and models to evaluate alternatives for ecosystem restoration and to communicate results to decision and policy makers.
Due to restricted FY funding the following subtasks will not be continued: a. Response of roseate spoonbills nesting in Florida bay to hydrologic restoration, b. Decision support tools for adaptive ecosystem management, c. Computer Simulation Modeling of Wading Birds of the Everglades/Big Cypress Region, d. Habitat suitability model for Everglades crayfish, e. User interface
Ecological assessment models work will continue.
Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
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