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Experimental Poverty Measures

Since 1995, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has conducted research on the development of new expenditure-based poverty thresholds. This research has been conducted within the Division of Price and Index Number Research at the BLS as part of a joint BLS-U.S. Census Bureau research project.

A first set of expenditure-based poverty thresholds is based on a 1995 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report Measuring Poverty: A New Approach, (Citro and Michael 1995) and a second set is based on "Observations from the Interagency Technical Working Group on Developing a Supplemental Poverty Measure" (PDF). The Working Group is referred to as the ITWG and its measure as the SPM. Both the NAS and ITWG documents refer to the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) as the basis for new expenditure-based poverty thresholds. The documents also note that BLS is to conduct research on poverty thresholds, and is to provide expenditure-based thresholds to the U.S. Census Bureau for use in its poverty measurement research and for the production of experimental poverty statistics. The ITWG, in addition, acknowledged that the BLS had produced the NAS thresholds in the past and expected the BLS would continue to play this role for the SPM.

The NAS recommendations provide the framework for a definition of the SPM. However, research over the years has suggested modifications to the NAS recommendations; the modifications are noted in the ITWG document. The SPM is not intended to replace the official poverty measure but is to be considered a work in progress, with the expectation that there will be improvements to it over time. Changes in the SPM are to be decided upon in a process led by research economists, survey methodologists, and statisticians within the U.S. Census Bureau in consultation with BLS and with other appropriate data agencies and outside experts, and will be based on solid analytical evidence.

Both the SPM and NAS poverty measure thresholds are experimental and are made available to the public for use in research. The purpose of this web page is to provide access to recently produced expenditure-based poverty thresholds and to papers and presentations related to these. Much of the research represented was conducted by BLS in cooperation with U.S. Census Bureau staff and other academic researchers. The thresholds developed and described in the research articles, papers, and presentations are not produced using standard BLS processing procedures. The BLS website currently hosts the SPM poverty thresholds on this website (see below), while the U.S. Census Bureau website hosts the NAS experimental poverty thresholds.

On This Page

Disclaimer: Not all the authors of these studies and presentations are affiliated with BLS. This information is provided for your convenience and does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of BLS.

Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) Thresholds

SPM thresholds are based on consumer unit spending for food, clothing, shelter and utilities (FCSU), and a multiplier to account for other basic goods and services, like those for household supplies, personal care, and non-work related transportation. For each threshold year, five years of quarterly U.S. Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey data are used; expenditures are updated to annual threshold year dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). SPM thresholds are based on a range around the 33rd percentile of FCSU expenditures for the estimation sample. Unlike the earlier NAS-based thresholds that were based on spending by families with two adults and two children, the SPM estimation sample is composed of consumer units (CUs) with two children and any number of adults. A consumer unit is similar to what the ITWG refers to as a "family unit", all related individuals who live at the same address, any co-resident unrelated children who are cared for by the family (such as foster children), and any co-habitors. Equivalence scales are used to convert the estimation sample FCSU expenditures to those of reference consumer units composed of two adults and two children. Separate thresholds are produced for owners with mortgages, owners without mortgages, and renters.

SPM thresholds appeared on this BLS website, in table format, for the first time in November 2011 with thresholds for 2009 and 2010. Later in that year a time series of thresholds, beginning with 2005, was added. On September 25, 2012, the 2011 SPM thresholds were published and added to the time series in the table; also included with the thresholds are the inputs for the derivation of the thresholds.

The SPM housing tenure thresholds are produced using the equation below.

SPM i = 1.2 * FCSU A - (S + U) A + (S + U) i

i   refers to one of three housing tenure groups:

Owners with mortgages
Owners without mortgages
Renters

A   refers to the entire estimation sample, within the 30th to 36th percentile range of FCSU expenditures, with FCSU expenditures converted to those for consumer units with two adults and two children without distinction by housing tenure

FCSU, S, and U  refer to the means of these expenditures among estimation sample CUs within the 30th to 36th percentile range of FCSU

The standard errors of year-to-year differences in the thresholds and the differences between housing tenure group thresholds within year are available in a separate table. To test for a significant change in the threshold from the previous year, or to make a comparison between thresholds within a year, one would conduct a Z-test. The test statistics are specified below, for each type of comparison.

First, to test for the statistical difference in a threshold from year to year (e.g., for the SPM for renters), simply divide the change in the threshold from the previous year by the standard error of the year-to-year difference that is listed for the current threshold year.

Z Renters , 2011-2010 = (SPM Renters , 2011 - SPM Renters , 2010 ) / Standard error Renters , 2011-2010

For a statistical comparison of thresholds within a year (e.g., for renters compared to owners without mortgages), simply divide the difference in the two thresholds within the year by the standard error of the difference between the two housing tenure groups that is listed for the current threshold year.

Z Renters compared to Owners without mortgages , 2011 =

(SPM Renters , 2011 - SPM Owner without mortgages , 2011 ) / Standard error Renters compared to Owners without mortgages , 2011

The expenditure shares of each of the components of the SPM thresholds (food, clothing, shelter, utilities, and other) are available in another table. The shares listed are the average expenditures on a particular threshold component, divided by the dollar value of the SPM threshold for a housing tenure group. The numerator expenditures for shares of food, clothing, and "other" do not change across housing tenure groups, but, as previously noted, the shelter plus utilities component has been estimated separately for each housing tenure group. In this table, the shares for shelter and utilities are presented separately.

Research papers

  • The Supplemental Poverty Measure: A Joint Project between the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (PDF)
    Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. June 8, 2012.

  • Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds: Imputing School Lunch and WIC Benefits to the Consumer Expenditure Survey Using Current Population Survey (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Charles Hokayem, Census Bureau. July 2012.

  • Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds: Imputing Noncash Benefits to the Consumer Expenditure Survey Using Current Population Survey-Parts I and II (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Charles Hokayem, Census Bureau. September 2011.

  • The Supplemental Poverty Measure: Examining the Incidence and Depth of Poverty in the U.S. Taking Account of Taxes and Transfers (PDF)
    Kathleen Short, Census Bureau. June 2011.

  • Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds: Laying the Foundation (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2010.

  • Setting and Updating Modern Poverty Thresholds (PDF)
    BLS Working Papers. March 2010.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. David Betson, University of Notre Dame.

  • Housing and Poverty Thresholds: Different Potions for Different Notions (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. David Betson, University of Notre Dame. 2010.

  • Note on Standard Errors and Other Relevant Statistics of Experimental Poverty Thresholds Produced at the Bureau of Labor Statistics: 2006 to 2008 (PDF)
    BLS Working Papers. March 2010.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Identifying the Poor: Poverty Measurement for the U.S. from 1996 to 2005 (PDF)
    The Review of income and wealth, Volume 56, Issue 2, pages 237-258, June 2010.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau.

  • A Note on the Movement in Median FCSU Expenditures from 2006 to 2007 (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2009.

  • Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the US Consumer Expenditure Survey (PDF 1.1 MB)
    Thesia I. Garner and Randal Verbrugge, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2008.

  • Creating a Consistent Poverty Measure over Time Using NAS Procedures: 1996-2005 (PDF)
    BLS Working Papers. April 2008.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau.

  • Comparing Approaches to Value Owner-Occupied Housing Using U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey Data (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Uri Kogan, Northwestern University.

  • What Do We Know About the Value of Owner Occupied Housing Services? Rental Equivalence and Other Approaches (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. Uri Kogan, Northwestern University.

  • Developing a New Poverty Line for the USA: Are There Lessons for India? (PDF)
    BLS Working Papers. March 2005.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau.

  • Personal Assessments of Minimum Income and Expenses: What Do They Tell Us about 'Minimum Living' Thresholds and Equivalence Scales? (PDF)
    BLS Working Papers. March 2005.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau.

  • The Role of Housing in Developing Poverty Thresholds 1993-2003 (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2005.

  • Experimental poverty measures: accounting for medical expenditures (PDF)
    Monthly Labor Review, Volume 125, No. 8. August 2002.
    Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Owner-Occupied Shelter in Experimental Poverty Measures (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. 2001.

  • Report on Experimental Poverty Measures 1990 to 1997 (PDF)
    Kathleen S. Short and John Iceland, Census Bureau. Richard Bavier, Office of Management and Budget. Thesia I. Garner and Patricia Rozaklis, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Donald J. Hernandez, SUNY at Albany. 2001.

  • Experimental poverty measure for the 1990s (PDF)
    Monthly Labor Review, Volume 121, No. 3. March 1998.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. Stephanie Shipp, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Charles Nelson, Census Bureau. Geoffrey Paulin, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • An experimental Consumer Price Index for the poor (PDF)
    Monthly Labor Review, Volume 119, No. 9. September 1996.
    Thesia I. Garner, David S. Johnson, and Mary F. Kokoski, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Conference presentations

  • Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM): Threshold Issues (PDF)
    Brookings/Census Bureau Meetings on Improved Poverty Measurement, Washington, D.C. Nov. 7, 2011.
    Thesia I. Garner and Marisa Gudrais, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds: Laying the Foundation (PDF)
    Allied Social Science Association Annual Meetings, Denver, CO. Jan. 8, 2011.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Moving to a Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM): Research on Thresholds for 2008 (PDF)
    Southern Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA. Nov 10, 2010.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Housing and Poverty Thresholds: Different Potions for Different Notions (PDF)
    Midwestern Economics Association Annual Meeting, Evanston, IL. Mar 20, 2010.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. David Betson, University of Notre Dame.

  • Setting and Updating Modern Poverty Thresholds (PDF)
    Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA), Atlanta, GA. Jan 3, 2010.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. David Betson, University of Notre Dame.

  • Poverty Threshold Alternatives/Choices (PDF 1.6 MB)
    Brookings/Census Bureau Conference on Improved Poverty Measurement. Oct 20, 2009.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • National Academy of Sciences (NAS)-Based Poverty Thresholds: Details of Alternatives and Choices in Specification (PDF)
    Joint Statistical Meetings, Washington, DC. Aug 3, 2009.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the US Consumer Expenditure Survey (PDF)
    Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations, San Francisco, CA. Jan 4, 2009.
    Thesia I. Garner and Randal Verbrugge, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Accounting for Housing Services in Consumption and Income (PDF)
    ASSA-SGE Annual Meetings, New Orleans, LA. Jan 6, 2008.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sylvester Young, International Labour Organization.

  • Comparing Approaches to Value Owner-Occupied Housing Using U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey Data (PDF)
    ASSA-SGE Annual Meetings, Chicago, IL. Jan 7, 2007.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Uri Kogan, Northwestern University.

  • What Do We Know About the Value of Owner-occupied Housing Services? Rental Equivalence and Other Approaches (PDF)
    Annual Meeting of the Southern Economics Association, Charleston, SC. Nov 18, 2006.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. Uri Kogan, Northwestern University.

  • The Role of Housing in Poverty Thresholds: 1993-2003 (PDF)
    Annual Meeting of the Southern Economics Association, Washington, DC. Nov 19, 2005.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Developing Poverty Thresholds (PDF)
    JSM, Social Statistics Section, Minneapolis, MN. Aug 10, 2005.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Incorporating the Value of Owner-Occupied Housing in Poverty Measurement (PDF)
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau. 2004.

  • Owner-Occupied Shelter in Experimental Poverty Measurement with a ?Look? at Inequality and Poverty (PDF)
    Southern Economics Association Conference, Tampa, FL. Nov 18, 2001.
    Thesia I. Garner, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kathleen S. Short, Census Bureau.

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    Last Modified Date: September 28, 2012