NOUS41 KWBC 291538
PNSWSH
Technical Implementation
Notice 12-06
National Weather Service
Headquarters Washington DC
1048 AM Wed EST Feb 29, 2012
To: Subscribers:
Family of Services
NOAA Weather Wire Service
Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
NOAAPort
Other NWS partners and employees
From: Cynthia Abelman
Chief, Aviation Services Branch
Subject: Extended
Convective Forecast Product
Operational April 16, 2012
Effective Monday, April 16,
2012, at 1800 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the NWS Aviation Weather Center
in Kansas City, MO, will implement the Extended Convective Forecast Product
(ECFP) as an operational product. On that date, ECFP will be available 24 hours
a day, 7 days a week.
The ECFP Planning Tool is
a graphic showing the forecast probability of thunderstorms. The product
identifies where in the United States thunderstorms are likely to occur in
6-hour time blocks through 72 hours (Day 3) based on the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF).
This automated
graphical forecast is created from the SREF Calibrated Thunderstorm output.
Contours are drawn at 40 percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent probability of
thunderstorm using CCFP-like shading. Hashed areas represent 40-59 percent
probability, solid lined areas represent 60-79 percent probability, and solid
blue filled areas represent greater than 80 percent probability.
NWS developed
the ECFP planning tool in response to Federal Aviation Administration needs to
plan for weather hazards, specifically convection, 1-2 days in advance. To meet
these planning needs, and to support CCFP planning beyond 6 hours, the ECFP is
intended to provide traffic planners and collaborators a quick-look forecast of
the greatest probability of convection/thunderstorms. By using CCFP-style
graphics, users familiar with CCFP can easily determine where traffic
constraints are most likely beyond the normal CCFP valid times, including
overnight hours, and through Days 2 and 3.
The
experimental ECFP can be accessed at
http://www.aviationweather.gov/testbed/ccfpoutlook/
On April 16, the operational product will be
online at:
http://www.aviationweather.gov/products/ccfp/ecfp
If you have any questions or
comments about this change, or the ECFP service, please contact:
Michael Pat Murphy
Warning Coordination
Meteorologist
Aviation Weather Center
Kansas City, MO 64153
816-584-7239
National Technical
Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm
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