QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 16/1200 UTC THRU MAR 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PAC NW...

THE NERN PAC/GULF OF AK H5 TROF IS HANDLED VRY SIMILARLY BY THE
MDLS THIS PD..WITH ALL TAKING IT ESEWD INTO THE PAC NW BY ERY SAT
EVE AND INTO THE NRN GT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES BY SUN MRNG.  ALTHO
ACCOMPANYING CDFNTL PASSAGE OCCURRING ERY IN THE PD WL TAKE THE
HIER MSTR/PWS RATHER QUICKLY SWD AND EWD OUT OF THE REGION..MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO BHND THE FNT AND MORE ENHANCED
DYNAMIC FORCING FM THE H5 TROF/FALLING HGTS SHLD STILL LEAD TO
RATHER WIDEPSPREAD PCPN FM MUCH OF WRN WA AND OR EWD INTO THE NRN
GT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES..AND ESP IN THE FAVORED HIER TERRAIN OF THE
OLYMPICS..CASCADES OVR INTO NRN/CNTRL ID.  LATEST MDL QPFS
REASONABLY AGREEABLE IN HAVING 0.50-1.00+ WTR EQUIVALENTS IN THE
HIER TERRAIN..AND STAYED VRY CLOSE TO THIS IDEA.  PLS SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR SNOWFALL DETAILS.


...CO ROCKIES EWD THRU KS AND THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS THEN ENEWD
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...

A COUPLE OF STREAMS OF H5 S/WV ENERGY AND A WELL DEFINED SFC FNTL
BNDRY EVENTUALLY BCMG QSTNRY FM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SRN
MID ATLC REGION BY SUN MRNG WL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF LGT TO LCLY MDT
PCPN FM THE CO ROCKIES GENLY EWD INTO THE MID ATLC AREA THIS PD.  
THE MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY SKIRTING THRU THE GTLKS AND NRN MID
ATLC REGION WL HAVE ONLY MODEST MSTR TO WORK WITH..SO PCPN AMTS
VCNTY OF THE FNT THIS REGION WL BE GENLY LGT..WITH ANY GTR THAN
0.25 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS MOST LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WV
OVR INTO WRN VA.  FARTHER W..IMPROVING LOW LVL WAA AND POOLING OF
HIER PWS INTO/VCNTY OF THE FNTL BNDRY DRAPED FM KS EWD INTO THE
LWR OH VLY WL SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ESP FM SERN KS EWD
THRU SRN MO INTO SRL IL.  AGAIN..MDL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..SO DIDN'T DEVIATE MUCH FM THEM.  XPC
SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH RNFL AMTS SERN KS THRU SCNTRL MO..WITH
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER TOTALS FARTHER EWD. 

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 536211 538205 537200 537190 535182 533175 529166 527154
      522136 520129 519120 514100 511093 509086 507083 506077
      504072 501064 498058 488045 484040 480037 476040 470042
      468051 467056 467065 467073 472074 478076 484085 498108
      501114 503119 503126 499132 491131 487127 481124 477120
      476116 477110 476098 474091 470085 464084 452078 450073
      447067 446064 445059 446047 449040 447031 443026 439022
      435019 429017 422009 419005 416998 418994 418992 415986
      413981 409977 402962 397946 393933 391916 391897 389883
      387873 386868 385857 385850 392852 397849 400837 403831
      410831 418843 423850 429851 436843 442840 446842 446850
      443858 445866 453875 457889 460898 462902 467902 473894
      480889 485891 491902 493916 493935 494943 499946 506936
      511917 519878 521843 515816 508808 501807 497813 492828
      486844 481845 478843 474837 471831 471828 466821 459820
      456822 452828 449825 447821 445810 441807 439799 436791
      433787 431779 434773 438769 441767 442763 443756 442752
      440750 432754 429763 428770 428774 426771 424766 424762
      422755 417740 411727 404715 399709 391706 385706 378710
      371716 364731 360745 360748 357758 357768 360775 365784
      368794 369804 366815 363827 361844 361859 361871 361881
      357903 356914 354926 354933 354938 354946 356953 359953
      361956 363958 364962 365990 365000 364005 360018 358026
      358032 361035 366038 367040 366043 363049 360052 360057
      361059 366062 369063 371066 372073 374091 376096 380098
      391092 401083 403079 407076 410073 413073 414064 418060
      422059 424072 427076 429079 427084 426090 426100 415104
      410099 409098 406101 403107 399105 397105 396109 391112
      384115 382123 386126 393126 396129 403130 407134 410138
      412141 411145 409149 409154 412157 419167 418177 424178
      426184 426189 426190 432185 436181 439180 439185 437193
      438198 438202 440205 442210 440211 436210 430210 428212
      422228 421233 419235 414239 417245 424249 431251 436250
      450253 455252 461254 476260 481264 487269 495280 501284
      506288 510287 514283 519269 521260 522250 521246 523241
      526234 530230 536211
 0.01 480195 480190 479188 473186 467185 463186 459190 456193
      453197 452201 453204 456207 459205 465205 468203 473202
      477199 480195
 0.01 452084 450082 447080 444078 441076 439080 438080 438084
      436088 438090 441090 444090 447090 450089 450088 452084
 0.01 441133 442125 440119 434119 432124 429127 426131 425139
      425147 424155 426159 431163 433160 433156 433148 435140
      438136 441133
 0.25 531204 532199 531195 530186 528180 526174 521170 514169
      505162 497154 492142 488136 484133 478130 472132 469138
      466136 464133 460132 457136 455144 451149 441153 440158
      443162 448166 451167 454164 458164 462168 466171 469172
      472172 485176 491178 495181 504183 508185 511190 518202
      521207 526208 530207 531204
 0.25 512256 513248 512243 508235 503225 500215 495207 491205
      486203 478204 471207 463209 455212 447215 440217 433221
      430224 432231 437233 438237 440241 445241 453243 463244
      468245 473247 478249 482249 489246 491243 493240 496242
      501246 503249 509256 512256
 0.25 445111 446110 445108 444107 442106 441107 441108 443110
      444111 445111
 0.25 395798 395793 393788 389785 386780 383772 382766 381765
      378764 375771 375776 378785 378794 378800 376807 373816
      372824 370829 370833 372835 373833 373827 376824 379822
      385819 392808 395798
 0.25 382880 381877 379874 377874 376878 374885 373894 371910
      368925 366933 366940 367951 370957 372961 374964 380963
      383958 385950 386932 386913 385902 384891 382880
 0.50 494221 493215 491210 485207 480206 471209 467211 461212
      455215 449216 446218 438222 435225 438227 447226 451225
      456226 462228 466226 470223 475223 481223 486225 490224
      494221
 0.50 479239 479237 477234 476233 475233 474237 475239 478240
      479239
 0.50 483165 482160 479157 476155 475154 473153 471150 470149
      468147 465146 462145 460148 459152 461156 464160 464161
      467164 469166 472167 475168 477168 478168 481167 483165
 0.50 383929 383921 382914 379911 376913 374918 372924 371928
      371932 370939 371946 373950 376950 379948 381944 381940
      382933 383929