Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152005
2100Z MON SEP 05 2005
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  67.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  67.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  67.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.8N  67.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.9N  68.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.3N  70.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.0N  72.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 32.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N  67.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH
 
 
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