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Hurricane NATE
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A
WELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A
RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE. IN LIGHT
OF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.0N 60.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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