000
FXUS65 KGJT 250302
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
802 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SNOW HAD DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER. THEREFORE...ALLOWED
THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SATELLITE...AREA WEB CAMS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RADAR ALL
INDICATED DECENT SNOW WAS CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY 6 PM SO CHOSE TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH 8 PM. AFTER 03Z
RAP13 INDICATED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MARKEDLY IMPROVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS RESTING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...MOISTURE...AND MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WERE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WERE MOVING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM DRAGGING THE WHOLE AFFAIR TO THE SOUTH. SNOW ALL FELL
ON AND OFF ALL MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL CO VALLEYS AND THE MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT. WITH
THE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE HILLS...HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE
OUT THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND ALLOW THEM TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SPREAD DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN MANY VALLEY AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
AT GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES C...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED A MENTIONS OF
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE VALLEY AIRPORTS.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG
THE SHORT WAVE BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT IS SIMILAR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE UTAH/NW COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON. THE 12Z
NAM/EC ARE A FEW HOURS EARLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE GFS IS
MOST CONSISTENT SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE. THE GREATEST UPWARD QG
FORCING AND FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT JET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALSO ACT ON 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 2 G/KG. THE OVERALL RESULT LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-3
INCHES FOR FAVORED NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS. SNOW WILL END ON
TUESDAY EVENING IN MOST AREAS AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TO THE
PLAINS...BUT VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER BUT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A WAA PATTERN...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER
FASTING MOVING SHORTWAVE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG NEAR KGJT...KEGE...KASE...AND
KVEL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 250302
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
802 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SNOW HAD DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER. THEREFORE...ALLOWED
THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SATELLITE...AREA WEB CAMS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RADAR ALL
INDICATED DECENT SNOW WAS CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY 6 PM SO CHOSE TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH 8 PM. AFTER 03Z
RAP13 INDICATED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MARKEDLY IMPROVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS RESTING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...MOISTURE...AND MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WERE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WERE MOVING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM DRAGGING THE WHOLE AFFAIR TO THE SOUTH. SNOW ALL FELL
ON AND OFF ALL MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL CO VALLEYS AND THE MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT. WITH
THE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE HILLS...HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE
OUT THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND ALLOW THEM TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SPREAD DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN MANY VALLEY AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
AT GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES C...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED A MENTIONS OF
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE VALLEY AIRPORTS.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG
THE SHORT WAVE BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT IS SIMILAR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE UTAH/NW COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON. THE 12Z
NAM/EC ARE A FEW HOURS EARLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE GFS IS
MOST CONSISTENT SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE. THE GREATEST UPWARD QG
FORCING AND FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT JET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALSO ACT ON 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 2 G/KG. THE OVERALL RESULT LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-3
INCHES FOR FAVORED NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS. SNOW WILL END ON
TUESDAY EVENING IN MOST AREAS AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TO THE
PLAINS...BUT VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER BUT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A WAA PATTERN...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER
FASTING MOVING SHORTWAVE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG NEAR KGJT...KEGE...KASE...AND
KVEL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KBOU 250301
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
801 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE DECREASING A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THOUGH IT IS DECREASING FROM
THE NORTH...NOT MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM DENVER AND
AKRON NORTHWARD. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIMITED AT BEST WITH MANY
AREAS IN WARNINGS NOW SEEING VERY LIGHT SNOW AND NOT ENOUGH WIND
FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE EXCEPTION IS IN ELBERT COUNTY WHERE SOME
SITES NEAR THE RIDGE LINE STILL HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS...ALSO STILL SOME BETTER SNOWFALL IN EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR DOUGLAS...ELBERT...AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES AND DROP THE REST OF OUR WARNINGS AT THIS HOUR.

THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS OF
WELD COUNTY AND KREMMLING AND WALDEN...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE
BALANCE BETWEEN WIND...DRYING...AND FROST DEPOSITION ON THE NEW
SNOW. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED SO I HAVE LEFT IT
OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE DENVER AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. EXPECT
SNOW TO END AT KDEN BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION WAS DROPPING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM SYSTEM WAS NOW BEGINNING
TO REORGANIZE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE STILL SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ENHANCEMENT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA....WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ON RADAR NOW SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SO HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE ONLY AN INCH AT BEST IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH REGARD TO EXPIRATION TIME AS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL...TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF WINDS BUT STILL HAD A COUPLE BLIZZARD
REPORTS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS
JUST EAST OF DENVER METRO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF I-76 WITH 1-3 FROM DENVER AND
POINTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS PRESENTLY
FORECAST.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL VERY WELL LINGER TO AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A
LITTLE AFTER IN THE  FAVORED AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMUP WILL BE LIMITED A
BIT BY FRESH SNOW COVER.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME DECENT QG ASCENT DURING THE DAY WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. THUS SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW IN
THE MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW ON TUE IS FCST TO
BE NNWLY TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING HOWEVER IF WINDS ARE MORE NNE
THEN SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY OVER THE PLAINS EXCEPT OVER
THE PALMER WHERE WILL KEEP IN A CHC THRU TUE EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
WNW ALOFT SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.
OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 30S. FOR
THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HOWEVER THE ECMWF
IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE GFS WITH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NERN CO. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR FRI AND SAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP A
DRY FCST IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS GET
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AVIATION...SNOW INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND CEILINGS
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 03Z-05Z. MAYBE A FLURRY
OR TWO THEREAFTER TIL 07Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2
INCHES STILL EXPECTED FROM 00Z-05Z AS THE SNOW DECREASES. BLOWING
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE AS GUSTS 25-30KTS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
20KTS BY 03Z-05Z. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD

000
FXUS65 KBOU 250301
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
801 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE DECREASING A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THOUGH IT IS DECREASING FROM
THE NORTH...NOT MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM DENVER AND
AKRON NORTHWARD. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIMITED AT BEST WITH MANY
AREAS IN WARNINGS NOW SEEING VERY LIGHT SNOW AND NOT ENOUGH WIND
FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE EXCEPTION IS IN ELBERT COUNTY WHERE SOME
SITES NEAR THE RIDGE LINE STILL HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS...ALSO STILL SOME BETTER SNOWFALL IN EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR DOUGLAS...ELBERT...AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES AND DROP THE REST OF OUR WARNINGS AT THIS HOUR.

THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS OF
WELD COUNTY AND KREMMLING AND WALDEN...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE
BALANCE BETWEEN WIND...DRYING...AND FROST DEPOSITION ON THE NEW
SNOW. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED SO I HAVE LEFT IT
OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE DENVER AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. EXPECT
SNOW TO END AT KDEN BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION WAS DROPPING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM SYSTEM WAS NOW BEGINNING
TO REORGANIZE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE STILL SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ENHANCEMENT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA....WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ON RADAR NOW SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SO HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE ONLY AN INCH AT BEST IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH REGARD TO EXPIRATION TIME AS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL...TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF WINDS BUT STILL HAD A COUPLE BLIZZARD
REPORTS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS
JUST EAST OF DENVER METRO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF I-76 WITH 1-3 FROM DENVER AND
POINTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS PRESENTLY
FORECAST.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL VERY WELL LINGER TO AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A
LITTLE AFTER IN THE  FAVORED AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMUP WILL BE LIMITED A
BIT BY FRESH SNOW COVER.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME DECENT QG ASCENT DURING THE DAY WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. THUS SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW IN
THE MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW ON TUE IS FCST TO
BE NNWLY TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING HOWEVER IF WINDS ARE MORE NNE
THEN SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY OVER THE PLAINS EXCEPT OVER
THE PALMER WHERE WILL KEEP IN A CHC THRU TUE EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
WNW ALOFT SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.
OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 30S. FOR
THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HOWEVER THE ECMWF
IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE GFS WITH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NERN CO. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR FRI AND SAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP A
DRY FCST IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS GET
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

AVIATION...SNOW INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND CEILINGS
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 03Z-05Z. MAYBE A FLURRY
OR TWO THEREAFTER TIL 07Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2
INCHES STILL EXPECTED FROM 00Z-05Z AS THE SNOW DECREASES. BLOWING
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE AS GUSTS 25-30KTS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
20KTS BY 03Z-05Z. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD

000
FXUS65 KPUB 250246
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

WILL BE DROPPING/EXPIRING THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 03Z...LEAVING THE WARNING UP ONLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES...WHERE ORORGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NEAR
CUCHARA MAY STILL PICK UP SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW AS DEEP-
LAYERED N-NE WINDS PERSIST. WILL CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE UNTIL 06Z...AS WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES AND VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS EAST OF I-25 REMAINS
POOR. DOWN SOUTH...HAVEN`T HAD ENOUGH WIND/SNOW TO JUSTIFY KEEPING
THE BLIZZARD WARNING GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL
THUS DROP HIGHLIGHTS COMPLETELY FROM ZONE 87 (WALSENBURG
AREA)...WHERE ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. WILL DOWNGRADE THE
BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 88
(TRINIDAD AREA)...WHERE SNOW MAY HANG ON LONGER BUT WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO STAY TOO LOW TO MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA. FARTHER EAST IN
LAS ANIMAS/BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES...HAVE HAD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SO FAR...THOUGH SOME HINTS ON RADAR OF PRECIP ROTATING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR. WINDS WILL STAY
STRONG (G30-35 KNTS) THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO WILL
KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING FOR NOW AND EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATED PRODUCTS IN THE PIPELINE AND SHOULD
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPDATED FORECASTS/HIGHLIGHTS TO END ADVISORY FOR CANON
CITY/PUEBLO/COLORADO SPRINGS AREAS...BUT EXTENDED IT ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FOR OTERO COUNTY WHERE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 REMAINS. OTHER AREAS/HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPPER LOW IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH 100
KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE.  FRONT IS FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES.  WILL PROBABLY BE TAKING
HIGHLIGHTS DOWN FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN THEM FOR NOW AS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY IS STILL GETTING
SOME HEAVY SNOW...AND CROWLEY AND OTERO ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO
THE ACTION. MEANWHILE...DEFORMATION BAND IS FINALLY SINKING TO THE
SOUTH...AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHTING UP
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SO LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN SNOW
YET...SHOULD VERY SHORTLY.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE (NEAR LBB) BY
12Z MON. 12Z NAM12 WAS DEVELOPING THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SLINGING IT BACK WESTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS BACA AND
SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.  18Z RUN IS NOW KEEPING
IT FARTHER SOUTH.  12Z ECMWF STILL SPREADS SOME QPF INTO BACA AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE
40-50 KTS AT H85-H7 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 06Z...SO WITH THE WIND THREAT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING IN THAT REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PROWERS AND NORTHERN BACA
COUNTY MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY COULD STILL FAIR WELL WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2
TO 5 INCH RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OUT WEST...SHOULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THOUGH
FOCUS FOR HEAVER SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS SFC
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

AS FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  STILL
LOOKING AT 5 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS/WETS
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES.  3 TO 6 INCHES FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
EASTERN HUERFANO.  BACA AND PROWERS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE THE SAWATCH RANGE...LA
GARITAS...MOSQUITOS...AND EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHLIGHTS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND PROWERS
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE
DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED TODAYS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MIDWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS PUBLIC ZONES
58/60/68/72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 AS WELL AS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 87 AND 88 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF NOTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS(PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES) MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE ZONES AS WE NEAR THIS TIME-FRAME.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS/FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ETC. CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IN THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTMENT
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND(THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH 2012) SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
AREAS.

FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE SNOW FOR
KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KCOS COULD SEE A VCSH THROUGH
01Z.  LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
+SN BLSN WILL CONTINUE.  MEANWHILE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCOS AND KPUB AT 20-35 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
DURING MONDAY MORNING.  MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094-098-099.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 250246
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

WILL BE DROPPING/EXPIRING THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 03Z...LEAVING THE WARNING UP ONLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES...WHERE ORORGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NEAR
CUCHARA MAY STILL PICK UP SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW AS DEEP-
LAYERED N-NE WINDS PERSIST. WILL CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE UNTIL 06Z...AS WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES AND VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS EAST OF I-25 REMAINS
POOR. DOWN SOUTH...HAVEN`T HAD ENOUGH WIND/SNOW TO JUSTIFY KEEPING
THE BLIZZARD WARNING GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL
THUS DROP HIGHLIGHTS COMPLETELY FROM ZONE 87 (WALSENBURG
AREA)...WHERE ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. WILL DOWNGRADE THE
BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 88
(TRINIDAD AREA)...WHERE SNOW MAY HANG ON LONGER BUT WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO STAY TOO LOW TO MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA. FARTHER EAST IN
LAS ANIMAS/BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES...HAVE HAD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SO FAR...THOUGH SOME HINTS ON RADAR OF PRECIP ROTATING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR. WINDS WILL STAY
STRONG (G30-35 KNTS) THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO WILL
KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING FOR NOW AND EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATED PRODUCTS IN THE PIPELINE AND SHOULD
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPDATED FORECASTS/HIGHLIGHTS TO END ADVISORY FOR CANON
CITY/PUEBLO/COLORADO SPRINGS AREAS...BUT EXTENDED IT ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FOR OTERO COUNTY WHERE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 REMAINS. OTHER AREAS/HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPPER LOW IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH 100
KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE.  FRONT IS FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES.  WILL PROBABLY BE TAKING
HIGHLIGHTS DOWN FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN THEM FOR NOW AS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY IS STILL GETTING
SOME HEAVY SNOW...AND CROWLEY AND OTERO ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO
THE ACTION. MEANWHILE...DEFORMATION BAND IS FINALLY SINKING TO THE
SOUTH...AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHTING UP
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SO LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN SNOW
YET...SHOULD VERY SHORTLY.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE (NEAR LBB) BY
12Z MON. 12Z NAM12 WAS DEVELOPING THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SLINGING IT BACK WESTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS BACA AND
SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.  18Z RUN IS NOW KEEPING
IT FARTHER SOUTH.  12Z ECMWF STILL SPREADS SOME QPF INTO BACA AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE
40-50 KTS AT H85-H7 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 06Z...SO WITH THE WIND THREAT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING IN THAT REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PROWERS AND NORTHERN BACA
COUNTY MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY COULD STILL FAIR WELL WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2
TO 5 INCH RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OUT WEST...SHOULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THOUGH
FOCUS FOR HEAVER SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS SFC
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

AS FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  STILL
LOOKING AT 5 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS/WETS
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES.  3 TO 6 INCHES FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
EASTERN HUERFANO.  BACA AND PROWERS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE THE SAWATCH RANGE...LA
GARITAS...MOSQUITOS...AND EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHLIGHTS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND PROWERS
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE
DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED TODAYS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MIDWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS PUBLIC ZONES
58/60/68/72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 AS WELL AS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 87 AND 88 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF NOTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS(PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES) MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE ZONES AS WE NEAR THIS TIME-FRAME.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS/FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ETC. CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IN THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTMENT
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND(THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH 2012) SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
AREAS.

FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE SNOW FOR
KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KCOS COULD SEE A VCSH THROUGH
01Z.  LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
+SN BLSN WILL CONTINUE.  MEANWHILE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCOS AND KPUB AT 20-35 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
DURING MONDAY MORNING.  MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094-098-099.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KGJT 250057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
557 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SATELLITE...AREA WEB CAMS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RADAR ALL
INDICATED DECENT SNOW WAS CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY 6 PM SO CHOSE TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH 8 PM. AFTER 03Z
RAP13 INDICATED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MARKEDLY IMPROVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS RESTING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...MOISTURE...AND MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WERE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WERE MOVING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM DRAGGING THE WHOLE AFFAIR TO THE SOUTH. SNOW ALL FELL
ON AND OFF ALL MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL CO VALLEYS AND THE MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT. WITH
THE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE HILLS...HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE
OUT THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND ALLOW THEM TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SPREAD DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN MANY VALLEY AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
AT GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES C...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED A MENTIONS OF
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE VALLEY AIRPORTS.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG
THE SHORT WAVE BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT IS SIMILAR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE UTAH/NW COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON. THE 12Z
NAM/EC ARE A FEW HOURS EARLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE GFS IS
MOST CONSISTENT SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE. THE GREATEST UPWARD QG
FORCING AND FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT JET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALSO ACT ON 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 2 G/KG. THE OVERALL RESULT LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-3
INCHES FOR FAVORED NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS. SNOW WILL END ON
TUESDAY EVENING IN MOST AREAS AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TO THE
PLAINS...BUT VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER BUT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A WAA PATTERN...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER
FASTING MOVING SHORTWAVE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG NEAR KGJT...KEGE...KASE...AND
KVEL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 250057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
557 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SATELLITE...AREA WEB CAMS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RADAR ALL
INDICATED DECENT SNOW WAS CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY 6 PM SO CHOSE TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH 8 PM. AFTER 03Z
RAP13 INDICATED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MARKEDLY IMPROVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS RESTING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...MOISTURE...AND MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WERE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WERE MOVING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM DRAGGING THE WHOLE AFFAIR TO THE SOUTH. SNOW ALL FELL
ON AND OFF ALL MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL CO VALLEYS AND THE MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT. WITH
THE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE HILLS...HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE
OUT THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND ALLOW THEM TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SPREAD DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN MANY VALLEY AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
AT GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES C...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED A MENTIONS OF
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE VALLEY AIRPORTS.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG
THE SHORT WAVE BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT IS SIMILAR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE UTAH/NW COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON. THE 12Z
NAM/EC ARE A FEW HOURS EARLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE GFS IS
MOST CONSISTENT SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE. THE GREATEST UPWARD QG
FORCING AND FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT JET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALSO ACT ON 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 2 G/KG. THE OVERALL RESULT LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-3
INCHES FOR FAVORED NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS. SNOW WILL END ON
TUESDAY EVENING IN MOST AREAS AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TO THE
PLAINS...BUT VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER BUT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A WAA PATTERN...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER
FASTING MOVING SHORTWAVE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG NEAR KGJT...KEGE...KASE...AND
KVEL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242357
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
457 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPDATED FORECASTS/HIGHLIGHTS TO END ADVISORY FOR CANON
CITY/PUEBLO/COLORADO SPRINGS AREAS...BUT EXTENDED IT ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FOR OTERO COUNTY WHERE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 REMAINS. OTHER AREAS/HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPPER LOW IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH 100
KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE.  FRONT IS FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES.  WILL PROBABLY BE TAKING
HIGHLIGHTS DOWN FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN THEM FOR NOW AS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY IS STILL GETTING
SOME HEAVY SNOW...AND CROWLEY AND OTERO ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO
THE ACTION. MEANWHILE...DEFORMATION BAND IS FINALLY SINKING TO THE
SOUTH...AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHTING UP
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SO LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN SNOW
YET...SHOULD VERY SHORTLY.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE (NEAR LBB) BY
12Z MON. 12Z NAM12 WAS DEVELOPING THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SLINGING IT BACK WESTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS BACA AND
SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.  18Z RUN IS NOW KEEPING
IT FARTHER SOUTH.  12Z ECMWF STILL SPREADS SOME QPF INTO BACA AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE
40-50 KTS AT H85-H7 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 06Z...SO WITH THE WIND THREAT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING IN THAT REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PROWERS AND NORTHERN BACA
COUNTY MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY COULD STILL FAIR WELL WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2
TO 5 INCH RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OUT WEST...SHOULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THOUGH
FOCUS FOR HEAVER SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS SFC
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

AS FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  STILL
LOOKING AT 5 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS/WETS
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES.  3 TO 6 INCHES FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
EASTERN HUERFANO.  BACA AND PROWERS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE THE SAWATCH RANGE...LA
GARITAS...MOSQUITOS...AND EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHLIGHTS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND PROWERS
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE
DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED TODAYS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MIDWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS PUBLIC ZONES
58/60/68/72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 AS WELL AS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 87 AND 88 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF NOTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS(PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES) MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE ZONES AS WE NEAR THIS TIME-FRAME.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS/FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ETC. CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IN THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTMENT
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND(THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH 2012) SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
AREAS.

FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE SNOW FOR
KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KCOS COULD SEE A VCSH THROUGH
01Z.  LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
+SN BLSN WILL CONTINUE.  MEANWHILE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCOS AND KPUB AT 20-35 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
DURING MONDAY MORNING.  MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ098-099.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
079>082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068-093.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242357
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
457 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPDATED FORECASTS/HIGHLIGHTS TO END ADVISORY FOR CANON
CITY/PUEBLO/COLORADO SPRINGS AREAS...BUT EXTENDED IT ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FOR OTERO COUNTY WHERE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 REMAINS. OTHER AREAS/HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPPER LOW IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH 100
KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE.  FRONT IS FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES.  WILL PROBABLY BE TAKING
HIGHLIGHTS DOWN FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN THEM FOR NOW AS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY IS STILL GETTING
SOME HEAVY SNOW...AND CROWLEY AND OTERO ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO
THE ACTION. MEANWHILE...DEFORMATION BAND IS FINALLY SINKING TO THE
SOUTH...AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHTING UP
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SO LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN SNOW
YET...SHOULD VERY SHORTLY.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE (NEAR LBB) BY
12Z MON. 12Z NAM12 WAS DEVELOPING THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SLINGING IT BACK WESTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS BACA AND
SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.  18Z RUN IS NOW KEEPING
IT FARTHER SOUTH.  12Z ECMWF STILL SPREADS SOME QPF INTO BACA AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE
40-50 KTS AT H85-H7 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 06Z...SO WITH THE WIND THREAT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING IN THAT REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PROWERS AND NORTHERN BACA
COUNTY MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY COULD STILL FAIR WELL WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2
TO 5 INCH RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OUT WEST...SHOULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THOUGH
FOCUS FOR HEAVER SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS SFC
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

AS FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  STILL
LOOKING AT 5 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS/WETS
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES.  3 TO 6 INCHES FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
EASTERN HUERFANO.  BACA AND PROWERS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE THE SAWATCH RANGE...LA
GARITAS...MOSQUITOS...AND EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHLIGHTS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND PROWERS
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE
DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED TODAYS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MIDWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS PUBLIC ZONES
58/60/68/72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 AS WELL AS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 87 AND 88 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF NOTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS(PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES) MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE ZONES AS WE NEAR THIS TIME-FRAME.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS/FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ETC. CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IN THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTMENT
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND(THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH 2012) SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
AREAS.

FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE SNOW FOR
KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KCOS COULD SEE A VCSH THROUGH
01Z.  LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
+SN BLSN WILL CONTINUE.  MEANWHILE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCOS AND KPUB AT 20-35 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
DURING MONDAY MORNING.  MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ098-099.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
079>082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068-093.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242239
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPPER LOW IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH 100
KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE.  FRONT IS FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES.  WILL PROBABLY BE TAKING
HIGHLIGHTS DOWN FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN THEM FOR NOW AS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY IS STILL GETTING
SOME HEAVY SNOW...AND CROWLEY AND OTERO ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO
THE ACTION. MEANWHILE...DEFORMATION BAND IS FINALLY SINKING TO THE
SOUTH...AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHTING UP
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SO LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN SNOW
YET...SHOULD VERY SHORTLY.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE (NEAR LBB) BY
12Z MON. 12Z NAM12 WAS DEVELOPING THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SLINGING IT BACK WESTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS BACA AND
SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.  18Z RUN IS NOW KEEPING
IT FARTHER SOUTH.  12Z ECMWF STILL SPREADS SOME QPF INTO BACA AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE
40-50 KTS AT H85-H7 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 06Z...SO WITH THE WIND THREAT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING IN THAT REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PROWERS AND NORTHERN BACA
COUNTY MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY COULD STILL FAIR WELL WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2
TO 5 INCH RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OUT WEST...SHOULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THOUGH
FOCUS FOR HEAVER SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS SFC
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

AS FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  STILL
LOOKING AT 5 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS/WETS
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES.  3 TO 6 INCHES FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
EASTERN HUERFANO.  BACA AND PROWERS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE THE SAWATCH RANGE...LA
GARITAS...MOSQUITOS...AND EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHLIGHTS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND PROWERS
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE
DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED TODAYS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MIDWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS PUBLIC ZONES
58/60/68/72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 AS WELL AS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 87 AND 88 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF NOTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS(PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES) MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE ZONES AS WE NEAR THIS TIME-FRAME.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS/FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ETC. CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IN THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTMENT
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND(THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH 2012) SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
AREAS.

FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE SNOW FOR
KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KCOS COULD SEE A VCSH THROUGH
01Z.  LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
+SN BLSN WILL CONTINUE.  MEANWHILE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCOS AND KPUB AT 20-35 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
DURING MONDAY MORNING.  MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ083-
085-086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242239
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPPER LOW IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH 100
KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE.  FRONT IS FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES.  WILL PROBABLY BE TAKING
HIGHLIGHTS DOWN FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN THEM FOR NOW AS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY IS STILL GETTING
SOME HEAVY SNOW...AND CROWLEY AND OTERO ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO
THE ACTION. MEANWHILE...DEFORMATION BAND IS FINALLY SINKING TO THE
SOUTH...AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHTING UP
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SO LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN`T SEEN SNOW
YET...SHOULD VERY SHORTLY.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE MODELS IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE (NEAR LBB) BY
12Z MON. 12Z NAM12 WAS DEVELOPING THE NEW DEFORMATION BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SLINGING IT BACK WESTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS BACA AND
SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.  18Z RUN IS NOW KEEPING
IT FARTHER SOUTH.  12Z ECMWF STILL SPREADS SOME QPF INTO BACA AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE
40-50 KTS AT H85-H7 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 06Z...SO WITH THE WIND THREAT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
SOME SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING IN THAT REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PROWERS AND NORTHERN BACA
COUNTY MAY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY COULD STILL FAIR WELL WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2
TO 5 INCH RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OUT WEST...SHOULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THOUGH
FOCUS FOR HEAVER SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS SFC
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

AS FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  STILL
LOOKING AT 5 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES FOR NORTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS/WETS
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES.  3 TO 6 INCHES FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
EASTERN HUERFANO.  BACA AND PROWERS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE THE SAWATCH RANGE...LA
GARITAS...MOSQUITOS...AND EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHLIGHTS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS...BACA...AND PROWERS
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE
DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED TODAYS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MIDWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS PUBLIC ZONES
58/60/68/72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 AS WELL AS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 87 AND 88 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF NOTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS(PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES) MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE ZONES AS WE NEAR THIS TIME-FRAME.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS/FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ETC. CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IN THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTMENT
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND(THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH 2012) SHOULD
CLIMB TO ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
AREAS.

FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE SNOW FOR
KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KCOS COULD SEE A VCSH THROUGH
01Z.  LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE
+SN BLSN WILL CONTINUE.  MEANWHILE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCOS AND KPUB AT 20-35 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
DURING MONDAY MORNING.  MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ083-
085-086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KBOU 242224
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
324 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION WAS DROPPING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM SYSTEM WAS NOW BEGINNING
TO REORGANIZE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE STILL SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ENHANCEMENT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA....WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ON RADAR NOW SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SO HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE ONLY AN INCH AT BEST IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH REGARD TO EXPIRATION TIME AS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL...TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF WINDS BUT STILL HAD A COUPLE BLIZZARD
REPORTS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS
JUST EAST OF DENVER METRO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF I-76 WITH 1-3 FROM DENVER AND
POINTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS PRESENTLY
FORECAST.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL VERY WELL LINGER TO AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A
LITTLE AFTER IN THE  FAVORED AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMUP WILL BE LIMITED A
BIT BY FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME DECENT QG ASCENT DURING THE DAY WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. THUS SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW IN
THE MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW ON TUE IS FCST TO
BE NNWLY TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING HOWEVER IF WINDS ARE MORE NNE
THEN SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY OVER THE PLAINS EXCEPT OVER
THE PALMER WHERE WILL KEEP IN A CHC THRU TUE EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
WNW ALOFT SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.
OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 30S. FOR
THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HOWEVER THE ECMWF
IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE GFS WITH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NERN CO. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR FRI AND SAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP A
DRY FCST IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS GET
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND CEILINGS
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 03Z-05Z. MAYBE A FLURRY
OR TWO THEREAFTER TIL 07Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2
INCHES STILL EXPECTED FROM 00Z-05Z AS THE SNOW DECREASES. BLOWING
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE AS GUSTS 25-30KTS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
20KTS BY 03Z-05Z. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034-038-042-048-050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ039-040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ036.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-045>047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 242224
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
324 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION WAS DROPPING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM SYSTEM WAS NOW BEGINNING
TO REORGANIZE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE STILL SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ENHANCEMENT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA....WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ON RADAR NOW SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHEAST WELD COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SO HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE ONLY AN INCH AT BEST IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE. ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH REGARD TO EXPIRATION TIME AS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL...TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF WINDS BUT STILL HAD A COUPLE BLIZZARD
REPORTS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS
JUST EAST OF DENVER METRO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF I-76 WITH 1-3 FROM DENVER AND
POINTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS PRESENTLY
FORECAST.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL VERY WELL LINGER TO AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A
LITTLE AFTER IN THE  FAVORED AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMUP WILL BE LIMITED A
BIT BY FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME DECENT QG ASCENT DURING THE DAY WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. THUS SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW IN
THE MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW ON TUE IS FCST TO
BE NNWLY TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING HOWEVER IF WINDS ARE MORE NNE
THEN SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY OVER THE PLAINS EXCEPT OVER
THE PALMER WHERE WILL KEEP IN A CHC THRU TUE EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY WED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
WNW ALOFT SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.
OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 30S. FOR
THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HOWEVER THE ECMWF
IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE GFS WITH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NERN CO. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR FRI AND SAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP A
DRY FCST IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS GET
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND CEILINGS
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 03Z-05Z. MAYBE A FLURRY
OR TWO THEREAFTER TIL 07Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2
INCHES STILL EXPECTED FROM 00Z-05Z AS THE SNOW DECREASES. BLOWING
SNOW WILL ALSO DECREASE AS GUSTS 25-30KTS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
20KTS BY 03Z-05Z. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034-038-042-048-050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ039-040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ036.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-045>047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KGJT 242208
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS RESTING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...MOISTURE...AND MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WERE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WERE MOVING GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
THE SYSTEM DRAGGING THE WHOLE AFFAIR TO THE SOUTH. SNOW ALL FELL
ON AND OFF ALL MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL CO VALLEYS AND THE MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT. WITH
THE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE HILLS...HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE
OUT THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND ALLOW THEM TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SPREAD DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN MANY VALLEY AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRECIPITATION BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
AT GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES C...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED A MENTIONS OF
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE VALLEY AIRPORTS.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG
THE SHORT WAVE BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT IS SIMILAR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE UTAH/NW COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON. THE 12Z
NAM/EC ARE A FEW HOURS EARLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE GFS IS
MOST CONSISTENT SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE. THE GREATEST UPWARD QG
FORCING AND FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT JET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALSO ACT ON 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 2 G/KG. THE OVERALL RESULT LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-3
INCHES FOR FAVORED NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS. SNOW WILL END ON
TUESDAY EVENING IN MOST AREAS AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TO THE
PLAINS...BUT VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER BUT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A WAA PATTERN...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER
FASTING MOVING SHORTWAVE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG NEAR KGJT...KEGE...KASE...AND
KVEL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     005-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TB
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

ADDED EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING THERE. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND THE WETS...IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS ZONE. ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 2 AM...AND FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM
MONDAY.  ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LEFT IN TACT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL
03Z. ALSO EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS BETWEEN THE 2 BLIZZARD WARNINGS UNTIL 00Z. SYSTEM SEEMS TO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE EVOLUTION IN MODELS
YESTERDAY...THUS THE NECESSITY TO PUSH OUT SOME OF THE HEADLINES.
STILL WAITING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TO KICK IN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY 21Z AS SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE BLIZZARD WINDS/VIS ACROSS THE
2 DIVIDES...IT WILL JUST OCCUR LATER. OTHERWISE...ECHOES FILLING
IN NICELY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LATEST KPUX VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING NICE 25 TO 30 KTS OF NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK. AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY...WHERE
ECHOES ARE FILLING IN ON RADAR. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THEIR
BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW IS RIGHT NOW...AND AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD DIMINISH. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOSELY. ALSO FARTHER EAST...GETTING REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO
ZONES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...BUSY DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS DROPPING
SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS. THIS SW FEED WAS BRINGING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC OBS INDICATE
THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD AS OF 09Z
USHERING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT IT TOOK ABOUT AN HR TO
HR AND A HALF BEFORE PCPN WAS REPORTED. THE SNOW HAS REACHED KFCS AS
OF 330 AM...BUT NOT KPUB AS OF YET. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SFC WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A BIT...BUT AS
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SURGE SOUTH THIS TREND SHOULD REVERSE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOT GOING ON TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...FEEL IT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY TO TRY
AND DESCRIBE EACH ANGLE. FIRST OFF...THE BIG PICTURE. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ALL SOMEWHAT AGREE ON DROPPING THE UPPER LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACE THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHUTTLES IT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED TOO FAR
SOUTH...WHICH IS ROBBING MUCH OF THE AREA OF A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREDICTED...BUT
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED THAT ADJUSTING ONGOING
HIGHLIGHTS TOO MUCH WOULD BE FAR TOO CONFUSING FOR EVERYONE
INVOLVED...SO REALIZE THAT AREAS UNDER A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE LOOK
GOOD...AND DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BACA TO A
WARNING AND INCLUDE PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL THIS EVENING...SINCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT
WRAPAROUND  MOISTURE WILL EKE BACK UP INTO THE SE CORNER OF
COLORADO. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...THE MTS LOOK
GOOD FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AND NE FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND REACH HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA NO PROBLEM. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR PUEBLO...S EL PASO...CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES LOOKS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS THE NAM CLEARLY SHOWS THE
BROWN HOLE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AND COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS FEEL NO REAL REASON TO DROP THAT HIGHLIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...

APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE PULLING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...WITH PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SO...BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ONE
IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. AT 18Z
TUESDAY...THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DENVER...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE ECMWF HAS
THE CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. QUITE A SPREAD ON PLACEMENT.
MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO TRACK. IN ANY CASE...NONE OF THE SCENARIOS
LOOKS SUPER PRODUCTIVE IN THE SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

AFTER THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THINGS START
TO CALM DOWN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MOST
AREAS. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO FROM THE WEST...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE STORM TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE STRETCH OF
COLDER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL FINISH OUT FEBRUARY.
THEN...MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE LAMB...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CIGS/VIS LOWERING AT KPUB AND KCOS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TAF SITES OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH KPUB
SEEING THE LIGHTER OF THESE AMOUNTS...AND KCOS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
THE HEAVIER ACCUMS. WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN LIGHT SO FAR ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 00Z-01Z...THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
KCOS WILL SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KALS SHOULD START TO SEE LOWERING CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN AFTER 01Z.
-KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ083-
085-086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

ADDED EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING THERE. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND THE WETS...IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS ZONE. ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 2 AM...AND FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM
MONDAY.  ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS LEFT IN TACT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL
03Z. ALSO EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS BETWEEN THE 2 BLIZZARD WARNINGS UNTIL 00Z. SYSTEM SEEMS TO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE EVOLUTION IN MODELS
YESTERDAY...THUS THE NECESSITY TO PUSH OUT SOME OF THE HEADLINES.
STILL WAITING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TO KICK IN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY 21Z AS SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE BLIZZARD WINDS/VIS ACROSS THE
2 DIVIDES...IT WILL JUST OCCUR LATER. OTHERWISE...ECHOES FILLING
IN NICELY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LATEST KPUX VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING NICE 25 TO 30 KTS OF NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK. AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY...WHERE
ECHOES ARE FILLING IN ON RADAR. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THEIR
BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW IS RIGHT NOW...AND AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD DIMINISH. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOSELY. ALSO FARTHER EAST...GETTING REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO
ZONES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...BUSY DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS DROPPING
SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS. THIS SW FEED WAS BRINGING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC OBS INDICATE
THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD AS OF 09Z
USHERING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT IT TOOK ABOUT AN HR TO
HR AND A HALF BEFORE PCPN WAS REPORTED. THE SNOW HAS REACHED KFCS AS
OF 330 AM...BUT NOT KPUB AS OF YET. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SFC WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A BIT...BUT AS
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SURGE SOUTH THIS TREND SHOULD REVERSE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOT GOING ON TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...FEEL IT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY TO TRY
AND DESCRIBE EACH ANGLE. FIRST OFF...THE BIG PICTURE. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ALL SOMEWHAT AGREE ON DROPPING THE UPPER LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACE THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHUTTLES IT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED TOO FAR
SOUTH...WHICH IS ROBBING MUCH OF THE AREA OF A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREDICTED...BUT
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED THAT ADJUSTING ONGOING
HIGHLIGHTS TOO MUCH WOULD BE FAR TOO CONFUSING FOR EVERYONE
INVOLVED...SO REALIZE THAT AREAS UNDER A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE LOOK
GOOD...AND DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BACA TO A
WARNING AND INCLUDE PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL THIS EVENING...SINCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT
WRAPAROUND  MOISTURE WILL EKE BACK UP INTO THE SE CORNER OF
COLORADO. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...THE MTS LOOK
GOOD FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AND NE FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND REACH HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA NO PROBLEM. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR PUEBLO...S EL PASO...CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES LOOKS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS THE NAM CLEARLY SHOWS THE
BROWN HOLE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AND COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS FEEL NO REAL REASON TO DROP THAT HIGHLIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...

APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE PULLING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...WITH PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SO...BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ONE
IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. AT 18Z
TUESDAY...THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DENVER...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE ECMWF HAS
THE CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. QUITE A SPREAD ON PLACEMENT.
MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO TRACK. IN ANY CASE...NONE OF THE SCENARIOS
LOOKS SUPER PRODUCTIVE IN THE SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

AFTER THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THINGS START
TO CALM DOWN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MOST
AREAS. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO FROM THE WEST...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE STORM TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE STRETCH OF
COLDER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL FINISH OUT FEBRUARY.
THEN...MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE LAMB...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CIGS/VIS LOWERING AT KPUB AND KCOS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TAF SITES OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH KPUB
SEEING THE LIGHTER OF THESE AMOUNTS...AND KCOS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
THE HEAVIER ACCUMS. WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN LIGHT SO FAR ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 00Z-01Z...THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
KCOS WILL SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KALS SHOULD START TO SEE LOWERING CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN AFTER 01Z.
-KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ083-
085-086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ074-075.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KGJT 241914
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1214 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED HEADLINES.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL EXITED THE AREA BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY CLOUDS AND PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CO AND UT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP
SOUTH. MAINLY N TO NNW FACING SLOPES AND CANYONS WILL RECEIVE THE
MOST PRECIP. THIS SHOULD BOLSTER THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREA
WITHIN SNOW ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

AS EXPECTED...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT AS IT
SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING. WHILE SNOWFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY...SNOW HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN UT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EASTERN UT WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST UT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT BRUSHES THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
FACING SLOPES AND DRAINAGES WILL BECOME THE TARGET FOR THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT WILL BE A NORTHEAST OR EAST
COMPONENT DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS FLOW
REGIME IS GENERALLY NOT TOO FAVORABLE...AND OFTEN SHUTS DOWN OUR
SNOW PRODUCTION. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL KEEP A SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESENT ADVISORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BY THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN UT...AND THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF CO. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 00Z...DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING.

BY LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE....AND WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT
WITH FRESH SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE FOLLOWS OUR
PRESENT STORM. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OVERHEAD BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY AFTER THE COLD MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SHORT LIVED RIDGE MONDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHWEST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT TARGETS NW COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF RACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
(ALTHOUGH SRN VALLEYS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIED).  EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MANY VALLEYS. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OR IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER PASSAGE OF TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE...THE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WARM
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH AS THE SHORT WAVE MAY GET STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHT
VALUES AS WARM RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT EARLY SPRING RATHER THAN LATE WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TAKING THE WRAPAROUND PRECIP WITH IT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     005-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 241914
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1214 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED HEADLINES.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL EXITED THE AREA BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY CLOUDS AND PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CO AND UT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP
SOUTH. MAINLY N TO NNW FACING SLOPES AND CANYONS WILL RECEIVE THE
MOST PRECIP. THIS SHOULD BOLSTER THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREA
WITHIN SNOW ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

AS EXPECTED...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT AS IT
SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING. WHILE SNOWFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY...SNOW HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN UT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EASTERN UT WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST UT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT BRUSHES THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
FACING SLOPES AND DRAINAGES WILL BECOME THE TARGET FOR THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT WILL BE A NORTHEAST OR EAST
COMPONENT DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS FLOW
REGIME IS GENERALLY NOT TOO FAVORABLE...AND OFTEN SHUTS DOWN OUR
SNOW PRODUCTION. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL KEEP A SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESENT ADVISORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BY THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN UT...AND THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF CO. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 00Z...DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING.

BY LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE....AND WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT
WITH FRESH SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE FOLLOWS OUR
PRESENT STORM. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OVERHEAD BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY AFTER THE COLD MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SHORT LIVED RIDGE MONDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHWEST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT TARGETS NW COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF RACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
(ALTHOUGH SRN VALLEYS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIED).  EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MANY VALLEYS. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OR IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER PASSAGE OF TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE...THE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WARM
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH AS THE SHORT WAVE MAY GET STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHT
VALUES AS WARM RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT EARLY SPRING RATHER THAN LATE WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TAKING THE WRAPAROUND PRECIP WITH IT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     005-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KPUB 241741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1041 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL
03Z. ALSO EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS BETWEEN THE 2 BLIZZARD WARNINGS UNTIL 00Z. SYSTEM SEEMS TO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE EVOLUTION IN MODELS
YESTERDAY...THUS THE NECESSITY TO PUSH OUT SOME OF THE HEADLINES.
STILL WAITING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TO KICK IN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY 21Z AS SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE BLIZZARD WINDS/VIS ACROSS THE
2 DIVIDES...IT WILL JUST OCCUR LATER. OTHERWISE...ECHOES FILLING
IN NICELY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LATEST KPUX VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING NICE 25 TO 30 KTS OF NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK. AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY...WHERE
ECHOES ARE FILLING IN ON RADAR. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THEIR
BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW IS RIGHT NOW...AND AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD DIMINISH. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOSELY. ALSO FARTHER EAST...GETTING REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO
ZONES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...BUSY DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS DROPPING
SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS. THIS SW FEED WAS BRINGING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC OBS INDICATE
THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD AS OF 09Z
USHERING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT IT TOOK ABOUT AN HR TO
HR AND A HALF BEFORE PCPN WAS REPORTED. THE SNOW HAS REACHED KFCS AS
OF 330 AM...BUT NOT KPUB AS OF YET. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SFC WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A BIT...BUT AS
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SURGE SOUTH THIS TREND SHOULD REVERSE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOT GOING ON TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...FEEL IT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY TO TRY
AND DESCRIBE EACH ANGLE. FIRST OFF...THE BIG PICTURE. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ALL SOMEWHAT AGREE ON DROPPING THE UPPER LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACE THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHUTTLES IT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED TOO FAR
SOUTH...WHICH IS ROBBING MUCH OF THE AREA OF A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREDICTED...BUT
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED THAT ADJUSTING ONGOING
HIGHLIGHTS TOO MUCH WOULD BE FAR TOO CONFUSING FOR EVERYONE
INVOLVED...SO REALIZE THAT AREAS UNDER A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE LOOK
GOOD...AND DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BACA TO A
WARNING AND INCLUDE PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL THIS EVENING...SINCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT
WRAPAROUND  MOISTURE WILL EKE BACK UP INTO THE SE CORNER OF
COLORADO. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...THE MTS LOOK
GOOD FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AND NE FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND REACH HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA NO PROBLEM. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR PUEBLO...S EL PASO...CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES LOOKS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS THE NAM CLEARLY SHOWS THE
BROWN HOLE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AND COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS FEEL NO REAL REASON TO DROP THAT HIGHLIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...

APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE PULLING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...WITH PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SO...BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ONE
IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. AT 18Z
TUESDAY...THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DENVER...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE ECMWF HAS
THE CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. QUITE A SPREAD ON PLACEMENT.
MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO TRACK. IN ANY CASE...NONE OF THE SCENARIOS
LOOKS SUPER PRODUCTIVE IN THE SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

AFTER THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THINGS START
TO CALM DOWN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MOST
AREAS. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO FROM THE WEST...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE STORM TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE STRETCH OF
COLDER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL FINISH OUT FEBRUARY.
THEN...MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE LAMB...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CIGS/VIS LOWERING AT KPUB AND KCOS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TAF SITES OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH KPUB
SEEING THE LIGHTER OF THESE AMOUNTS...AND KCOS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
THE HEAVIER ACCUMS. WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN LIGHT SO FAR ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 00Z-01Z...THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
KCOS WILL SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KALS SHOULD START TO SEE LOWERING CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN AFTER 01Z.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
075-079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 241741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1041 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL
03Z. ALSO EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS BETWEEN THE 2 BLIZZARD WARNINGS UNTIL 00Z. SYSTEM SEEMS TO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE EVOLUTION IN MODELS
YESTERDAY...THUS THE NECESSITY TO PUSH OUT SOME OF THE HEADLINES.
STILL WAITING FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TO KICK IN WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY 21Z AS SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE BLIZZARD WINDS/VIS ACROSS THE
2 DIVIDES...IT WILL JUST OCCUR LATER. OTHERWISE...ECHOES FILLING
IN NICELY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LATEST KPUX VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING NICE 25 TO 30 KTS OF NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK. AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY...WHERE
ECHOES ARE FILLING IN ON RADAR. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THEIR
BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW IS RIGHT NOW...AND AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD DIMINISH. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOSELY. ALSO FARTHER EAST...GETTING REPORTS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO
ZONES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...BUSY DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS DROPPING
SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS. THIS SW FEED WAS BRINGING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC OBS INDICATE
THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD AS OF 09Z
USHERING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT IT TOOK ABOUT AN HR TO
HR AND A HALF BEFORE PCPN WAS REPORTED. THE SNOW HAS REACHED KFCS AS
OF 330 AM...BUT NOT KPUB AS OF YET. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SFC WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A BIT...BUT AS
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SURGE SOUTH THIS TREND SHOULD REVERSE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOT GOING ON TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...FEEL IT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY TO TRY
AND DESCRIBE EACH ANGLE. FIRST OFF...THE BIG PICTURE. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ALL SOMEWHAT AGREE ON DROPPING THE UPPER LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACE THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHUTTLES IT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED TOO FAR
SOUTH...WHICH IS ROBBING MUCH OF THE AREA OF A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREDICTED...BUT
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED THAT ADJUSTING ONGOING
HIGHLIGHTS TOO MUCH WOULD BE FAR TOO CONFUSING FOR EVERYONE
INVOLVED...SO REALIZE THAT AREAS UNDER A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE LOOK
GOOD...AND DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BACA TO A
WARNING AND INCLUDE PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL THIS EVENING...SINCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT
WRAPAROUND  MOISTURE WILL EKE BACK UP INTO THE SE CORNER OF
COLORADO. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...THE MTS LOOK
GOOD FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AND NE FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND REACH HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA NO PROBLEM. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR PUEBLO...S EL PASO...CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES LOOKS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS THE NAM CLEARLY SHOWS THE
BROWN HOLE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AND COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS FEEL NO REAL REASON TO DROP THAT HIGHLIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...

APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE PULLING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...WITH PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SO...BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ONE
IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. AT 18Z
TUESDAY...THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DENVER...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE ECMWF HAS
THE CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. QUITE A SPREAD ON PLACEMENT.
MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO TRACK. IN ANY CASE...NONE OF THE SCENARIOS
LOOKS SUPER PRODUCTIVE IN THE SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

AFTER THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THINGS START
TO CALM DOWN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MOST
AREAS. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO FROM THE WEST...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE STORM TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE STRETCH OF
COLDER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL FINISH OUT FEBRUARY.
THEN...MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE LAMB...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

CIGS/VIS LOWERING AT KPUB AND KCOS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TAF SITES OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH KPUB
SEEING THE LIGHTER OF THESE AMOUNTS...AND KCOS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
THE HEAVIER ACCUMS. WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN LIGHT SO FAR ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 00Z-01Z...THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
KCOS WILL SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KALS SHOULD START TO SEE LOWERING CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN AFTER 01Z.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-073-
075-079>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061-
066-068.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KGJT 241649
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL EXITED THE AREA BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY CLOUDS AND PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CO AND UT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP
SOUTH. MAINLY N TO NNW FACING SLOPES AND CANYONS WILL RECEIVE THE
MOST PRECIP. THIS SHOULD BOLSTER THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE AREA
WITHIN SNOW ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

AS EXPECTED...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT AS IT
SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING. WHILE SNOWFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY...SNOW HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN UT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EASTERN UT WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST UT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT BRUSHES THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
FACING SLOPES AND DRAINAGES WILL BECOME THE TARGET FOR THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT WILL BE A NORTHEAST OR EAST
COMPONENT DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS FLOW
REGIME IS GENERALLY NOT TOO FAVORABLE...AND OFTEN SHUTS DOWN OUR
SNOW PRODUCTION. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL KEEP A SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESENT ADVISORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BY THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN UT...AND THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF CO. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 00Z...DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING.

BY LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE....AND WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT
WITH FRESH SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE FOLLOWS OUR
PRESENT STORM. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OVERHEAD BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY AFTER THE COLD MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SHORT LIVED RIDGE MONDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHWEST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT TARGETS NW COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF RACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
(ALTHOUGH SRN VALLEYS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIED).  EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MANY VALLEYS. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OR IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER PASSAGE OF TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE...THE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WARM
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH AS THE SHORT WAVE MAY GET STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHT
VALUES AS WARM RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT EARLY SPRING RATHER THAN LATE WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN...AND KRIL IN MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TAKING THE WRAPAROUND PRECIP WITH IT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     005-009-010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ002-003-008-
     011-014-017-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KBOU 241646
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...WINTER STORM HAS REALLY RAMPED UP THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD TO ABOUT
STERLING...AKRON...AND JUST WEST OF LIMON. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR...SNOWFALL RATES...SPECTACULAR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED
ON SATELLITE...AND RAP GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES FOR POINTS CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH UP TO
4-6 INCHES MORE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE...SHAVED A
COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS/MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS WITH DECREASED ARRIVAL
RATES...VLIFR CONDITIONS...AND HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST 21Z. SHOULD SEE SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT KDEN
THEREAFTER...BUT KAPA AND KBJC COULD VERY WELL STAY DOWN AT VLIFR
THROUGH 00Z. SNOW WILL THEN DECREASE WITH VISIBILITY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH 07Z. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY NEAR 8 INCHES AT
KDEN...AND 10-12 INCHES AT KBJC AND KAPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS LOW SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO WIND UP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN PRODUCING THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
THERE/S STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT THE LIFT AND THUS THE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS...NOTABLY THE LATEST RUC...
CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT RESPECTABLE SNOW AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE AND ESPLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 00Z/MONDAY...AND
EVEN A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE
STILL GENERATING STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS
NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW IN SERN
COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 30-40KTS LOOK BELIEVABLE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE AREA COVERED BY A BLIZZARD
WARNING. SNOWFALL HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL
COUNTING ON IT BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY...THIS WAS NEVER MEANT TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL
RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT HANGING ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UP THERE. LASTLY...EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM AND
BLIZZARD WARNING ON THE PLAINS TO 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY IN THE MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS TO
EXPIRE ON TIME.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY MON AM AND
SLOWER TRACK OF THE STORM.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR MONDAY EVENING BUT NEXT TROF IS COMING IN
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT ONE IS
STILL COMING IN AS AN OPEN WAVE SO THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN BENEFICIARY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT UPWARD ASCENT
MOVING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE.
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION WITH THE MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND.

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KTS AFTER 16KTS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING...ADD RETURN TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FOR
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034-038-042-048-050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ039-040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ036.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-045>047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 241646
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...WINTER STORM HAS REALLY RAMPED UP THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD TO ABOUT
STERLING...AKRON...AND JUST WEST OF LIMON. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR...SNOWFALL RATES...SPECTACULAR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED
ON SATELLITE...AND RAP GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ANOTHER 2 INCHES FOR POINTS CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH UP TO
4-6 INCHES MORE IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE...SHAVED A
COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS/MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS WITH DECREASED ARRIVAL
RATES...VLIFR CONDITIONS...AND HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST 21Z. SHOULD SEE SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT KDEN
THEREAFTER...BUT KAPA AND KBJC COULD VERY WELL STAY DOWN AT VLIFR
THROUGH 00Z. SNOW WILL THEN DECREASE WITH VISIBILITY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH 07Z. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY NEAR 8 INCHES AT
KDEN...AND 10-12 INCHES AT KBJC AND KAPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS LOW SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO WIND UP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN PRODUCING THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
THERE/S STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT THE LIFT AND THUS THE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS...NOTABLY THE LATEST RUC...
CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT RESPECTABLE SNOW AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE AND ESPLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 00Z/MONDAY...AND
EVEN A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE
STILL GENERATING STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS
NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW IN SERN
COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 30-40KTS LOOK BELIEVABLE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE AREA COVERED BY A BLIZZARD
WARNING. SNOWFALL HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL
COUNTING ON IT BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY...THIS WAS NEVER MEANT TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL
RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT HANGING ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UP THERE. LASTLY...EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM AND
BLIZZARD WARNING ON THE PLAINS TO 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY IN THE MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS TO
EXPIRE ON TIME.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY MON AM AND
SLOWER TRACK OF THE STORM.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR MONDAY EVENING BUT NEXT TROF IS COMING IN
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT ONE IS
STILL COMING IN AS AN OPEN WAVE SO THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN BENEFICIARY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT UPWARD ASCENT
MOVING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE.
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION WITH THE MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND.

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KTS AFTER 16KTS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING...ADD RETURN TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FOR
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034-038-042-048-050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ039-040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ036.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-045>047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KPUB 241141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
441 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...BUSY DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS DROPPING
SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS. THIS SW FEED WAS BRINGING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC OBS INDICATE
THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD AS OF 09Z
USHERING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT IT TOOK ABOUT AN HR TO
HR AND A HALF BEFORE PCPN WAS REPORTED. THE SNOW HAS REACHED KFCS AS
OF 330 AM...BUT NOT KPUB AS OF YET. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SFC WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A BIT...BUT AS
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SURGE SOUTH THIS TREND SHOULD REVERSE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOT GOING ON TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...FEEL IT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY TO TRY
AND DESCRIBE EACH ANGLE. FIRST OFF...THE BIG PICTURE. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ALL SOMEWHAT AGREE ON DROPPING THE UPPER LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACE THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHUTTLES IT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED TOO FAR
SOUTH...WHICH IS ROBBING MUCH OF THE AREA OF A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREDICTED...BUT
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED THAT ADJUSTING ONGOING
HIGHLIGHTS TOO MUCH WOULD BE FAR TOO CONFUSING FOR EVERYONE
INVOLVED...SO REALIZE THAT AREAS UNDER A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE LOOK
GOOD...AND DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BACA TO A
WARNING AND INCLUDE PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL THIS EVENING...SINCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT
WRAPAROUND  MOISTURE WILL EKE BACK UP INTO THE SE CORNER OF
COLORADO. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...THE MTS LOOK
GOOD FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AND NE FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND REACH HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA NO PROBLEM. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR PUEBLO...S EL PASO...CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES LOOKS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS THE NAM CLEARLY SHOWS THE
BROWN HOLE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AND COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS FEEL NO REAL REASON TO DROP THAT HIGHLIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...

APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE PULLING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...WITH PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SO...BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ONE
IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. AT 18Z
TUESDAY...THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DENVER...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE ECMWF HAS
THE CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. QUITE A SPREAD ON PLACEMENT.
MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO TRACK. IN ANY CASE...NONE OF THE SCENARIOS
LOOKS SUPER PRODUCTIVE IN THE SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

AFTER THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THINGS START
TO CALM DOWN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MOST
AREAS. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO FROM THE WEST...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE STORM TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE STRETCH OF
COLDER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL FINISH OUT FEBRUARY.
THEN...MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE LAMB...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LW

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...PLAN ON IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22 Z DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG...BANDS OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS 25-35 MPH PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL SWING ACROSS NM AND MOVE INTO TX LATE TONIGHT...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THEN SHIFTING TO THE CO/NM STATE LINE AND THE SE CORNER
OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TAF SITES TO CLEAR OUT WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ085-086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ072-079-080.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073-075-
081-082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ066-
068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ061.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

27/50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 241141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
441 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...BUSY DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS DROPPING
SOUTH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS. THIS SW FEED WAS BRINGING
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SFC OBS INDICATE
THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD AS OF 09Z
USHERING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT IT TOOK ABOUT AN HR TO
HR AND A HALF BEFORE PCPN WAS REPORTED. THE SNOW HAS REACHED KFCS AS
OF 330 AM...BUT NOT KPUB AS OF YET. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SFC WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A BIT...BUT AS
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO SURGE SOUTH THIS TREND SHOULD REVERSE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOT GOING ON TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...FEEL IT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY TO TRY
AND DESCRIBE EACH ANGLE. FIRST OFF...THE BIG PICTURE. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ALL SOMEWHAT AGREE ON DROPPING THE UPPER LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACE THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHUTTLES IT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED TOO FAR
SOUTH...WHICH IS ROBBING MUCH OF THE AREA OF A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREDICTED...BUT
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED THAT ADJUSTING ONGOING
HIGHLIGHTS TOO MUCH WOULD BE FAR TOO CONFUSING FOR EVERYONE
INVOLVED...SO REALIZE THAT AREAS UNDER A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD AREAS ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE LOOK
GOOD...AND DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BACA TO A
WARNING AND INCLUDE PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL THIS EVENING...SINCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT
WRAPAROUND  MOISTURE WILL EKE BACK UP INTO THE SE CORNER OF
COLORADO. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...THE MTS LOOK
GOOD FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...AND NE FACING SLOPES ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND REACH HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA NO PROBLEM. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR PUEBLO...S EL PASO...CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES LOOKS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS THE NAM CLEARLY SHOWS THE
BROWN HOLE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AND COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS FEEL NO REAL REASON TO DROP THAT HIGHLIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...

APPEARS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE PULLING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH...WITH PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
SO...BLIZZARD WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ONE
IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. AT 18Z
TUESDAY...THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DENVER...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE ECMWF HAS
THE CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. QUITE A SPREAD ON PLACEMENT.
MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO TRACK. IN ANY CASE...NONE OF THE SCENARIOS
LOOKS SUPER PRODUCTIVE IN THE SNOWFALL DEPARTMENT FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

AFTER THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THINGS START
TO CALM DOWN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT MOST
AREAS. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER COLORADO FROM THE WEST...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE STORM TRAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE STRETCH OF
COLDER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL FINISH OUT FEBRUARY.
THEN...MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE LAMB...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LW

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...PLAN ON IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22 Z DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG...BANDS OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS 25-35 MPH PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL SWING ACROSS NM AND MOVE INTO TX LATE TONIGHT...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THEN SHIFTING TO THE CO/NM STATE LINE AND THE SE CORNER
OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TAF SITES TO CLEAR OUT WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ098-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ085-086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ072-079-080.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073-075-
081-082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ066-
068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ061.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

27/50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 241140
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

AS EXPECTED...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT AS IT
SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING. WHILE SNOWFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY...SNOW HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN UT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EASTERN UT WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST UT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT BRUSHES THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
FACING SLOPES AND DRAINAGES WILL BECOME THE TARGET FOR THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT WILL BE A NORTHEAST OR EAST
COMPONENT DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS FLOW
REGIME IS GENERALLY NOT TOO FAVORABLE...AND OFTEN SHUTS DOWN OUR
SNOW PRODUCTION. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL KEEP A SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESENT ADVISORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BY THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN UT...AND THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF CO. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 00Z...DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING.

BY LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE....AND WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT
WITH FRESH SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE FOLLOWS OUR
PRESENT STORM. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OVERHEAD BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY AFTER THE COLD MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SHORT LIVED RIDGE MONDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHWEST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT TARGETS NW COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF RACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
(ALTHOUGH SRN VALLEYS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIED).  EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MANY VALLEYS. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OR IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER PASSAGE OF TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE...THE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WARM
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH AS THE SHORT WAVE MAY GET STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHT
VALUES AS WARM RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT EARLY SPRING RATHER THAN LATE WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT OCNL IFR AT KASE AND KEGE FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGJT...KMTJ AND
KRIL. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS.

FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS
SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.  VALLEY TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT LOCAL IFR/MVFR FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER 03Z...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     005-009-010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ002-003-008-
     011-014-017-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF

000
FXUS65 KGJT 241140
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

AS EXPECTED...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT AS IT
SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING. WHILE SNOWFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY...SNOW HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN UT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EASTERN UT WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST UT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT BRUSHES THE FOUR CORNERS AT 18Z.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...THE NORTHWEST-NORTH
FACING SLOPES AND DRAINAGES WILL BECOME THE TARGET FOR THE BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT WILL BE A NORTHEAST OR EAST
COMPONENT DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS FLOW
REGIME IS GENERALLY NOT TOO FAVORABLE...AND OFTEN SHUTS DOWN OUR
SNOW PRODUCTION. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL KEEP A SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESENT ADVISORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BY THE AFTERNOON...THE NORTH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN UT...AND THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF CO. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 00Z...DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING.

BY LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE....AND WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT
WITH FRESH SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE FOLLOWS OUR
PRESENT STORM. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OVERHEAD BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY AFTER THE COLD MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

SHORT LIVED RIDGE MONDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO ON TUESDAY.  COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHWEST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BEST DYNAMICAL
LIFT TARGETS NW COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF RACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
(ALTHOUGH SRN VALLEYS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIED).  EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MANY VALLEYS. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE OR IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE.

AFTER PASSAGE OF TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE...THE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WARM
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH AS THE SHORT WAVE MAY GET STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHT
VALUES AS WARM RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT EARLY SPRING RATHER THAN LATE WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT OCNL IFR AT KASE AND KEGE FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGJT...KMTJ AND
KRIL. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS.

FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS
SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.  VALLEY TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT LOCAL IFR/MVFR FROM PASSING SNOW SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER 03Z...A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     005-009-010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ002-003-008-
     011-014-017-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF

000
FXUS65 KBOU 241117
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS LOW SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO WIND UP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN PRODUCING THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
THERE/S STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT THE LIFT AND THUS THE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS...NOTABLY THE LATEST RUC...
CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT RESPECTABLE SNOW AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE AND ESPLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 00Z/MONDAY...AND
EVEN A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE
STILL GENERATING STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS
NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW IN SERN
COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 30-40KTS LOOK BELIEVABLE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE AREA COVERED BY A BLIZZARD
WARNING. SNOWFALL HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL
COUNTING ON IT BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY...THIS WAS NEVER MEANT TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL
RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT HANGING ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UP THERE. LASTLY...EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM AND
BLIZZARD WARNING ON THE PLAINS TO 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY IN THE MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS TO
EXPIRE ON TIME.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY MON AM AND
SLOWER TRACK OF THE STORM.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR MONDAY EVENING BUT NEXT TROF IS COMING IN
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT ONE IS
STILL COMING IN AS AN OPEN WAVE SO THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN BENEFICIARY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT UPWARD ASCENT
MOVING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE.
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION WITH THE MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KTS AFTER 16KTS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING...ADD RETURN TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FOR
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ048-
050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
036-039-040-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034-038-042.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ041-045.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ046-047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 241117
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS LOW SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO WIND UP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN PRODUCING THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
THERE/S STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT THE LIFT AND THUS THE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS...NOTABLY THE LATEST RUC...
CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT RESPECTABLE SNOW AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE AND ESPLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 00Z/MONDAY...AND
EVEN A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED EAST OF
THE MTNS THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE
STILL GENERATING STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS
NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW IN SERN
COLORADO. SPEEDS OF 30-40KTS LOOK BELIEVABLE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE AREA COVERED BY A BLIZZARD
WARNING. SNOWFALL HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL
COUNTING ON IT BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY...THIS WAS NEVER MEANT TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL
RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT HANGING ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UP THERE. LASTLY...EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM AND
BLIZZARD WARNING ON THE PLAINS TO 06Z TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY IN THE MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS TO
EXPIRE ON TIME.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY MON AM AND
SLOWER TRACK OF THE STORM.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR MONDAY EVENING BUT NEXT TROF IS COMING IN
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT ONE IS
STILL COMING IN AS AN OPEN WAVE SO THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN BENEFICIARY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT UPWARD ASCENT
MOVING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE.
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION WITH THE MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KTS AFTER 16KTS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING...ADD RETURN TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FOR
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ048-
050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
036-039-040-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034-038-042.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ041-045.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ046-047-
049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

000
FXUS65 KPUB 240635 AAB
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

FINALLY GOT THE LATEST 00Z RUNS IN AND MOST SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. GOING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD...SO NO
ADDITIONS THERE.

THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER UTAH WITH A LEAD VORT MAX
EJECTION NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO WITH DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING JET. THIS HAS
LED TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT FROM NEAR GUNNISON...NORTHEAST THROUGH WOODLAND PARK AND
FALCON. NEW ACTIVITY HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. WEBCAMS SO FAR HAVE
INDICATED AROUND AN INCH HAS FALLEN IN TELLER COUNTY...WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES HAVE FALLEN UP AT MONARCH.

FLOWED A BLEND OF THE WRF AND NAM FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MORNING. MODELS ARE PEGGING THE PALMER DIVIDE. WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY OVER THE PALMER. UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...WITH NEARLY A FOOT POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
QUICK TURN TO NORTHERLY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HAVE A QUICK PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW FOR COLORADO SPRINGS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER SNOWFALL ONCE WINDS SHIFT NORTH.
PUEBLO LOOKS TO MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO.

MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT FURTHER SOUTH. MOST COARSER SCALE MODELS
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE RATON MESA. HAVE A FEELING THEY
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS WITH A QUICK
PILING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREME DRIFTING OF SNOW. THESE
WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS...AND CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED TO AVOID UNNECESSARY RISKS.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...GROWING CONCERN WITH THIS WINTER STORM...

CURRENTLY...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MAIN BAND...STRETCHING FROM NEAR
TELLURIDE...NORTHEAST THROUGH SALIDA AND INTO NORTHERN TELLER
COUNTY WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITIES. WEBCAMS AT MONARCH INDICATE
DECENT SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
MAYSVILLE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.

THE 00Z NAM HAS BEEN ROLLING IN AND HAS SHIFTED THE STORM TRACK
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STRENGTHENS THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM HAS INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY 500MB FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...CLIPPING THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE 700MB FLOW
HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MORE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS WELL. GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WHERE FAVORED OROGRAPHICS AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED. ALSO ADDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ZONE 61...WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEING THAT SNOW IS ALREADY GOING ON.

CONCERNS...WE MAY NEED TO ADD FURTHER ZONES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LIST THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS...WRF AND NMM COME WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE 00Z NAM.
OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE CHAFFEE...AND WESTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES WHERE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD BE
ENHANCED THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS DRAINAGE. WE ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING ZONES 62...76 AND 77. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL TOTALS OFF
THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS. THE MEAN FOR MONUMENT HILL
CAME IN AT 15 INCHES...WHICH IS IS LIKELY EXCESSIVE...BUT NEARING
10 INCHES MAY NOT BE. SIMILAR TRENDS WERE NOTED OVER THE RATON AS
WELL. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT WILL WAIT
FOR NOW UNTIL THE 00Z RUNS ARE IN. IF 00Z RUNS COME IN MORE LIKE
THE NAM...AREAS ON THE PLAINS MAY DO DECENT AS WELL...WITH FORCING
FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM CANCELING OUT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AGAIN THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE NEW SOLUTIONS COME IN.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODELS STILL GIVING A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HAD ALL
ALONG. PROBLEM IS...THE EXTENT OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
VARIES...AS DOES THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO OK/TX ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE
MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION IN THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN
OK BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CENTERED AROUND KLBB. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...NAM HAS MUCH HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE REGION THAN DOES
GFS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING THE FIRST DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN THE 2ND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...GIVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS A MISS. WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND UPSLOPE ON THE RATON SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE 2
DIVIDES...PALMER AND RATON. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS WILL
ALLOW WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS TO BLOW AROUND EFFICIENTLY...AND HAVE
OPTED TO THROW OUT A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL
PASO...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...AND OTERO COUNTIES. AFTER 20Z...SHOULD
SEE THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WIN OUT OVER
THE UPPER LIFT WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WETS.  THE
NAM HITS THESE AREAS PRETTY HARD...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE
EC...GFS...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE NAM...ALL SHOW A WINDOW OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THINK OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
GFS VALUES.  THUS HAVE PUT OUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS 8 INCHES IN
12 HOURS COULD BE DOABLE FOR THESE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...OUT
WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN.
CURRENT PACKAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS IS THE BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF PUEBLO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

COMPLEX METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF MY LONGER TERM(I.E. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING) AS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

IN THE SPIRIT OF KEEPING THIS LONGER TERM DISCUSSION RELATIVELY
BRIEF...IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 TO BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z MONDAY WITH VARIOUS BEGINNING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 84/87 AND 88 AND UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE 94
WITH STARTING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO HOISTED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONE 99
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 18Z MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RELATIVELY
INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT 18Z
SUNDAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ROTATING ACROSS/INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.

THIS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEREBY
PROMPTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NUMEROUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THAT
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

KALS...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
18 HOURS OR SO. CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR AS SNOW
PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT
NORTHERLY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

KCOS...BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 10Z. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL BY 11Z WITH
SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL BETWEEN 15-19Z WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 40-45 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW MAY REMAIN
A PROBLEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS BY 12Z WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING QUICKLY
DUE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FROM AROUND
14-19Z WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. BLOWING SNOW MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AND INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-
079-080.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY

000
FXUS65 KPUB 240635 AAB
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

FINALLY GOT THE LATEST 00Z RUNS IN AND MOST SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. GOING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD...SO NO
ADDITIONS THERE.

THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER UTAH WITH A LEAD VORT MAX
EJECTION NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO WITH DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING JET. THIS HAS
LED TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT FROM NEAR GUNNISON...NORTHEAST THROUGH WOODLAND PARK AND
FALCON. NEW ACTIVITY HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. WEBCAMS SO FAR HAVE
INDICATED AROUND AN INCH HAS FALLEN IN TELLER COUNTY...WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES HAVE FALLEN UP AT MONARCH.

FLOWED A BLEND OF THE WRF AND NAM FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BY MORNING. MODELS ARE PEGGING THE PALMER DIVIDE. WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY OVER THE PALMER. UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...WITH NEARLY A FOOT POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
QUICK TURN TO NORTHERLY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HAVE A QUICK PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW FOR COLORADO SPRINGS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER SNOWFALL ONCE WINDS SHIFT NORTH.
PUEBLO LOOKS TO MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO.

MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT FURTHER SOUTH. MOST COARSER SCALE MODELS
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE RATON MESA. HAVE A FEELING THEY
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS WITH A QUICK
PILING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREME DRIFTING OF SNOW. THESE
WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS...AND CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED TO AVOID UNNECESSARY RISKS.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...GROWING CONCERN WITH THIS WINTER STORM...

CURRENTLY...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MAIN BAND...STRETCHING FROM NEAR
TELLURIDE...NORTHEAST THROUGH SALIDA AND INTO NORTHERN TELLER
COUNTY WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITIES. WEBCAMS AT MONARCH INDICATE
DECENT SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
MAYSVILLE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.

THE 00Z NAM HAS BEEN ROLLING IN AND HAS SHIFTED THE STORM TRACK
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STRENGTHENS THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM HAS INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY 500MB FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...CLIPPING THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE 700MB FLOW
HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MORE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS WELL. GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WHERE FAVORED OROGRAPHICS AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED. ALSO ADDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ZONE 61...WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEING THAT SNOW IS ALREADY GOING ON.

CONCERNS...WE MAY NEED TO ADD FURTHER ZONES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LIST THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS...WRF AND NMM COME WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE 00Z NAM.
OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE CHAFFEE...AND WESTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES WHERE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD BE
ENHANCED THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS DRAINAGE. WE ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING ZONES 62...76 AND 77. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL TOTALS OFF
THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS. THE MEAN FOR MONUMENT HILL
CAME IN AT 15 INCHES...WHICH IS IS LIKELY EXCESSIVE...BUT NEARING
10 INCHES MAY NOT BE. SIMILAR TRENDS WERE NOTED OVER THE RATON AS
WELL. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT WILL WAIT
FOR NOW UNTIL THE 00Z RUNS ARE IN. IF 00Z RUNS COME IN MORE LIKE
THE NAM...AREAS ON THE PLAINS MAY DO DECENT AS WELL...WITH FORCING
FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM CANCELING OUT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AGAIN THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE NEW SOLUTIONS COME IN.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODELS STILL GIVING A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HAD ALL
ALONG. PROBLEM IS...THE EXTENT OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
VARIES...AS DOES THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO OK/TX ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE
MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION IN THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN
OK BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CENTERED AROUND KLBB. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...NAM HAS MUCH HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE REGION THAN DOES
GFS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING THE FIRST DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN THE 2ND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...GIVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS A MISS. WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND UPSLOPE ON THE RATON SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE 2
DIVIDES...PALMER AND RATON. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS WILL
ALLOW WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS TO BLOW AROUND EFFICIENTLY...AND HAVE
OPTED TO THROW OUT A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL
PASO...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...AND OTERO COUNTIES. AFTER 20Z...SHOULD
SEE THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WIN OUT OVER
THE UPPER LIFT WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WETS.  THE
NAM HITS THESE AREAS PRETTY HARD...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE
EC...GFS...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE NAM...ALL SHOW A WINDOW OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THINK OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
GFS VALUES.  THUS HAVE PUT OUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS 8 INCHES IN
12 HOURS COULD BE DOABLE FOR THESE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...OUT
WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN.
CURRENT PACKAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS IS THE BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF PUEBLO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

COMPLEX METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF MY LONGER TERM(I.E. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING) AS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

IN THE SPIRIT OF KEEPING THIS LONGER TERM DISCUSSION RELATIVELY
BRIEF...IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 TO BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z MONDAY WITH VARIOUS BEGINNING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 84/87 AND 88 AND UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE 94
WITH STARTING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO HOISTED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONE 99
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 18Z MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RELATIVELY
INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT 18Z
SUNDAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ROTATING ACROSS/INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.

THIS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEREBY
PROMPTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NUMEROUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THAT
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

KALS...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
18 HOURS OR SO. CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR AS SNOW
PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT
NORTHERLY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

KCOS...BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 10Z. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL BY 11Z WITH
SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL BETWEEN 15-19Z WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 40-45 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW MAY REMAIN
A PROBLEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS BY 12Z WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING QUICKLY
DUE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FROM AROUND
14-19Z WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. BLOWING SNOW MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AND INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-
079-080.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY

000
FXUS65 KGJT 240500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE NEXT STORM APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK AS IT PLOWS THROUGH UTAH AND
BEGINS ITS FAST TREK ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THIS
EVENING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH COOLING SHOWER TOPS CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL UT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF KVEL AT 2 PM AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KGJT AROUND 4
PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE PRECIP BAND TAKING
LONGER TO CLEAR SE UT AND SW CO TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEN THE STORM
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ONE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
CHARACTER THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS UP AND ADDED ADVISORIES FOR SOME
WESTERN CO VALLEYS THRU NOON SUNDAY...ZONE 8 THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ZONE 11 AROUND MONTROSE AND PAONIA...AND ZONE 14 NEAR
GUNNISON. THESE OUGHT TO SEE THE PRECIP START AS SNOW FROM A
SLIGHTLY LATER START ALLOWING THE 3 PLUS INCHES NEEDED TO
ACCUMULATE FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR
THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK/SAWATCH MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE 500 MB LOW AS IT STALLS TOMORROW OVER NE NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP THE SNOW FALLING OVER THESE ZONES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO
ALLOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO ERODE TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

BUT...THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SWEEP THIS UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS NE UT/NW CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SNOW INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE  TROUGH. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE 700-300 MB Q-G VERTICAL
VELOCITY BULLSEYE ACROSS WRN CO ABOUT 12Z TUE MORNING. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING BUT TRACK THE Q-G CENTER
MORE ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO. UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION
SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED...BUT MOST MTN RANGES
STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

AFTER A DOWN DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST SLIDES
INLAND NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE SUCCESSION OF DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

ALL TAFS SITES AND MOST AIRPORTS ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A
A STRONG WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. KASE...KEGE...KCAG
...KHDN WILL ALL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND
PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. KGJT AND KVEL
WILL SEE THE EARLIEST IMPROVEMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AT KEGE AND KASE.

CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THROUGH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN THE CO CENTRAL AND SW MTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAPORING OFF IN THE EVENING. MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003-008-
     011-014-017-019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT

000
FXUS65 KGJT 240500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE NEXT STORM APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK AS IT PLOWS THROUGH UTAH AND
BEGINS ITS FAST TREK ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THIS
EVENING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH COOLING SHOWER TOPS CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL UT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF KVEL AT 2 PM AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KGJT AROUND 4
PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE PRECIP BAND TAKING
LONGER TO CLEAR SE UT AND SW CO TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEN THE STORM
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ONE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
CHARACTER THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS UP AND ADDED ADVISORIES FOR SOME
WESTERN CO VALLEYS THRU NOON SUNDAY...ZONE 8 THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ZONE 11 AROUND MONTROSE AND PAONIA...AND ZONE 14 NEAR
GUNNISON. THESE OUGHT TO SEE THE PRECIP START AS SNOW FROM A
SLIGHTLY LATER START ALLOWING THE 3 PLUS INCHES NEEDED TO
ACCUMULATE FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR
THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK/SAWATCH MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE 500 MB LOW AS IT STALLS TOMORROW OVER NE NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP THE SNOW FALLING OVER THESE ZONES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO
ALLOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO ERODE TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

BUT...THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SWEEP THIS UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS NE UT/NW CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SNOW INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE  TROUGH. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE 700-300 MB Q-G VERTICAL
VELOCITY BULLSEYE ACROSS WRN CO ABOUT 12Z TUE MORNING. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING BUT TRACK THE Q-G CENTER
MORE ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO. UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION
SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED...BUT MOST MTN RANGES
STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

AFTER A DOWN DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST SLIDES
INLAND NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE SUCCESSION OF DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

ALL TAFS SITES AND MOST AIRPORTS ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A
A STRONG WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. KASE...KEGE...KCAG
...KHDN WILL ALL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND
PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. KGJT AND KVEL
WILL SEE THE EARLIEST IMPROVEMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AT KEGE AND KASE.

CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THROUGH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN THE CO CENTRAL AND SW MTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAPORING OFF IN THE EVENING. MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003-008-
     011-014-017-019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT

000
FXUS65 KBOU 240444
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS
LIFT MOVES IN AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
INTENSITY WILL BE LOW INITIALLY...PARTLY DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO SATURATE. BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF
SNOW BEGINNING TO REFLECT WHAT IS HAPPENING...BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/SLOWER WITH A BIT
MORE SNOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW ENDING LATER. LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE DENVER AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 7-14 INCHES ACROSS DENVER
AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OVER 20 INCHES AT KAPA. THE SLOWER SPEED WOULD
ESPECIALLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER WHERE THE SNOW RATES WOULD
STILL BE GOOD WITH THE UPSLOPE WIND. WE MAY NEED TO MOVE THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONFIDENCE ON
THAT...LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CURRENT WARNINGS ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE. SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 08Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY
12Z. 06Z TAFS WILL HAVE STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
KDEN AND POSSIBLY KAPA...KBJC WILL LIKELY STAY LIFR BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE LESS WIND AND VISIBILITY IMPACT. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING/DRIFTING CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING
THEN MUCH BETTER BY 06Z MONDAY AT KBJC/KDEN AND 08Z AT KAPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013/

SHORT TERM....CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE 12Z NAM...GFS...GEM AND EVEN WRF HAVE SHOWN
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN AREAS OF BEST LIFT AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF STILL MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT AND
PREFERRED SOLUTION BUT AT THE SAME TIME HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO MORE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NCEP FORECASTERS
WITH ACCESS TO 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOTED THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EVEN REGARDED THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT Q-G
HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC INDICATES THE OPERATION ECMWF
SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. THE ONLY ARGUMENT WOULD BE IF A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PERHAPS RELATED TO LARGER LATENT HEAT RELEASE
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
STILL LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT ALSO INCORPORATED A
BIT OF THE MESOSCALE/SREF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW
EVENT. THEY INCLUDE...NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES...AVERAGE OF
25-30 KTS OF NNE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP UPSLOPE COMPONENT WELL ABOVE
MOUNTAIN TOP...GOOD MICROPHYSICS WITH LARGE OMEGA THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...AND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE UPGRADE OF BLIZZARD WATCHES
TO WARNING...WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AND
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE OVERALL BLENDING USING A MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MESOSCALE/SREF MODELS SUPPORT THE FOLLOWING
AMOUNTS...6-10 INCHES FOR DENVER/BOULDER AREA...8-12 INCHES PALMER
DIVIDE...7-14 INCHES FOOTHILLS...AND 4-8 INCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN
WELD...MORGAN...TOWARD WASHINGTON/LINCOLN COUNTY.

LONG TERM...THE BRUNT OF SUNDAY`S STORM SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE
TO ENDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 25/00Z. THERE
WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING BUT THAT WILL FLUSH OUT TOWARDS MORNING.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS OVER MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE EVENING BUT THESE TOO WILL
SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. ONLY A QUICK BREAK IN THINGS AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
EVENT BUT ENOUGH QG LIFT BLEEDS OVER THE HILLS TO BRING A THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...AGAIN BEING
MAINLY A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD
APPROACH NORMAL TOWARD WEEK`S AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS
WINTER STORM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. ONSET TIMING OF THIS IS
STILL RATHER DIFFICULT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z-11Z WHEN SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 1
INCH PER. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
KDEN WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR
VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE HEAVIEST SNOW 11Z-20Z...THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ048-
050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ035-036-039-
040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ038-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ041-045.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ046-047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD

000
FXUS65 KBOU 240444
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS
LIFT MOVES IN AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
INTENSITY WILL BE LOW INITIALLY...PARTLY DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO SATURATE. BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF
SNOW BEGINNING TO REFLECT WHAT IS HAPPENING...BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/SLOWER WITH A BIT
MORE SNOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW ENDING LATER. LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE DENVER AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 7-14 INCHES ACROSS DENVER
AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OVER 20 INCHES AT KAPA. THE SLOWER SPEED WOULD
ESPECIALLY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER WHERE THE SNOW RATES WOULD
STILL BE GOOD WITH THE UPSLOPE WIND. WE MAY NEED TO MOVE THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONFIDENCE ON
THAT...LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CURRENT WARNINGS ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE. SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 08Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY
12Z. 06Z TAFS WILL HAVE STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
KDEN AND POSSIBLY KAPA...KBJC WILL LIKELY STAY LIFR BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE LESS WIND AND VISIBILITY IMPACT. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING/DRIFTING CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING
THEN MUCH BETTER BY 06Z MONDAY AT KBJC/KDEN AND 08Z AT KAPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013/

SHORT TERM....CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE 12Z NAM...GFS...GEM AND EVEN WRF HAVE SHOWN
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN AREAS OF BEST LIFT AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF STILL MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT AND
PREFERRED SOLUTION BUT AT THE SAME TIME HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO MORE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NCEP FORECASTERS
WITH ACCESS TO 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOTED THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EVEN REGARDED THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT Q-G
HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC INDICATES THE OPERATION ECMWF
SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. THE ONLY ARGUMENT WOULD BE IF A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PERHAPS RELATED TO LARGER LATENT HEAT RELEASE
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
STILL LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT ALSO INCORPORATED A
BIT OF THE MESOSCALE/SREF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW
EVENT. THEY INCLUDE...NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES...AVERAGE OF
25-30 KTS OF NNE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP UPSLOPE COMPONENT WELL ABOVE
MOUNTAIN TOP...GOOD MICROPHYSICS WITH LARGE OMEGA THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...AND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE UPGRADE OF BLIZZARD WATCHES
TO WARNING...WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AND
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE OVERALL BLENDING USING A MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MESOSCALE/SREF MODELS SUPPORT THE FOLLOWING
AMOUNTS...6-10 INCHES FOR DENVER/BOULDER AREA...8-12 INCHES PALMER
DIVIDE...7-14 INCHES FOOTHILLS...AND 4-8 INCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN
WELD...MORGAN...TOWARD WASHINGTON/LINCOLN COUNTY.

LONG TERM...THE BRUNT OF SUNDAY`S STORM SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE
TO ENDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 25/00Z. THERE
WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING BUT THAT WILL FLUSH OUT TOWARDS MORNING.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS OVER MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE EVENING BUT THESE TOO WILL
SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. ONLY A QUICK BREAK IN THINGS AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
EVENT BUT ENOUGH QG LIFT BLEEDS OVER THE HILLS TO BRING A THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...AGAIN BEING
MAINLY A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD
APPROACH NORMAL TOWARD WEEK`S AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS
WINTER STORM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. ONSET TIMING OF THIS IS
STILL RATHER DIFFICULT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z-11Z WHEN SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 1
INCH PER. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
KDEN WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR
VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE HEAVIEST SNOW 11Z-20Z...THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ048-
050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ035-036-039-
040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ038-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ041-045.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ046-047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD

000
FXUS65 KPUB 240239 AAA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...GROWING CONCERN WITH THIS WINTER STORM...

CURRENTLY...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MAIN BAND...STRETCHING FROM NEAR
TELLURIDE...NORTHEAST THROUGH SALIDA AND INTO NORTHERN TELLER
COUNTY WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITIES. WEBCAMS AT MONARCH INDICATE
DECENT SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
MAYSVILLE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.

THE 00Z NAM HAS BEEN ROLLING IN AND HAS SHIFTED THE STORM TRACK
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STRENGTHENS THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM HAS INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY 500MB FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...CLIPPING THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE 700MB FLOW
HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MORE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS WELL. GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WHERE FAVORED OROGRAPHICS AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED. ALSO ADDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ZONE 61...WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEING THAT SNOW IS ALREADY GOING ON.

CONCERNS...WE MAY NEED TO ADD FURTHER ZONES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LIST THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS...WRF AND NMM COME WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE 00Z NAM.
OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE CHAFFEE...AND WESTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES WHERE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD BE
ENHANCED THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS DRAINAGE. WE ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING ZONES 62...76 AND 77. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL TOTALS OFF
THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS. THE MEAN FOR MONUMENT HILL
CAME IN AT 15 INCHES...WHICH IS IS LIKELY EXCESSIVE...BUT NEARING
10 INCHES MAY NOT BE. SIMILAR TRENDS WERE NOTED OVER THE RATON AS
WELL. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT WILL WAIT
FOR NOW UNTIL THE 00Z RUNS ARE IN. IF 00Z RUNS COME IN MORE LIKE
THE NAM...AREAS ON THE PLAINS MAY DO DECENT AS WELL...WITH FORCING
FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM CANCELING OUT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AGAIN THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE NEW SOLUTIONS COME IN.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODELS STILL GIVING A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HAD ALL
ALONG. PROBLEM IS...THE EXTENT OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
VARIES...AS DOES THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO OK/TX ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE
MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION IN THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN
OK BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CENTERED AROUND KLBB. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...NAM HAS MUCH HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE REGION THAN DOES
GFS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING THE FIRST DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN THE 2ND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...GIVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS A MISS. WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND UPSLOPE ON THE RATON SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE 2
DIVIDES...PALMER AND RATON. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS WILL
ALLOW WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS TO BLOW AROUND EFFICIENTLY...AND HAVE
OPTED TO THROW OUT A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL
PASO...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...AND OTERO COUNTIES. AFTER 20Z...SHOULD
SEE THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WIN OUT OVER
THE UPPER LIFT WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WETS.  THE
NAM HITS THESE AREAS PRETTY HARD...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE
EC...GFS...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE NAM...ALL SHOW A WINDOW OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THINK OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
GFS VALUES.  THUS HAVE PUT OUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS 8 INCHES IN
12 HOURS COULD BE DOABLE FOR THESE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...OUT
WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN.
CURRENT PACKAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS IS THE BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF PUEBLO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

COMPLEX METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF MY LONGER TERM(I.E. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING) AS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

IN THE SPIRIT OF KEEPING THIS LONGER TERM DISCUSSION RELATIVELY
BRIEF...IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 TO BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z MONDAY WITH VARIOUS BEGINNING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 84/87 AND 88 AND UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE 94
WITH STARTING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO HOISTED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONE 99
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 18Z MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RELATIVELY
INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT 18Z
SUNDAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ROTATING ACROSS/INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.

THIS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEREBY
PROMPTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NUMEROUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THAT
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT WILL CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 09Z...AND BECOME GUSTY
AFTER 12Z-15Z.  STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH SUNDAY.  SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH PLACES...WITH A QUICK BLAST OF SNOW
AND BLSN...AND IFR CONDITIONS.  IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
19-20Z THEN BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT
KCOS AND KPUB WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AND WILL COME IN A SHORT
BURST DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KALS WILL SEE -SHSN DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...THOUGH THE BEST SHOT WITH MVFR CIGS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-
079-080.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ081-
082.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY

000
FXUS65 KPUB 240239 AAA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...GROWING CONCERN WITH THIS WINTER STORM...

CURRENTLY...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MAIN BAND...STRETCHING FROM NEAR
TELLURIDE...NORTHEAST THROUGH SALIDA AND INTO NORTHERN TELLER
COUNTY WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITIES. WEBCAMS AT MONARCH INDICATE
DECENT SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
MAYSVILLE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.

THE 00Z NAM HAS BEEN ROLLING IN AND HAS SHIFTED THE STORM TRACK
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STRENGTHENS THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM HAS INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY 500MB FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...CLIPPING THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE 700MB FLOW
HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MORE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS WELL. GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WHERE FAVORED OROGRAPHICS AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED. ALSO ADDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ZONE 61...WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEING THAT SNOW IS ALREADY GOING ON.

CONCERNS...WE MAY NEED TO ADD FURTHER ZONES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LIST THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS...WRF AND NMM COME WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE 00Z NAM.
OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE CHAFFEE...AND WESTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES WHERE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD BE
ENHANCED THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS DRAINAGE. WE ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING ZONES 62...76 AND 77. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL TOTALS OFF
THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS. THE MEAN FOR MONUMENT HILL
CAME IN AT 15 INCHES...WHICH IS IS LIKELY EXCESSIVE...BUT NEARING
10 INCHES MAY NOT BE. SIMILAR TRENDS WERE NOTED OVER THE RATON AS
WELL. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT WILL WAIT
FOR NOW UNTIL THE 00Z RUNS ARE IN. IF 00Z RUNS COME IN MORE LIKE
THE NAM...AREAS ON THE PLAINS MAY DO DECENT AS WELL...WITH FORCING
FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM CANCELING OUT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AGAIN THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE NEW SOLUTIONS COME IN.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODELS STILL GIVING A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HAD ALL
ALONG. PROBLEM IS...THE EXTENT OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
VARIES...AS DOES THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO OK/TX ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE
MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION IN THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN
OK BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CENTERED AROUND KLBB. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...NAM HAS MUCH HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE REGION THAN DOES
GFS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING THE FIRST DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN THE 2ND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...GIVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS A MISS. WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND UPSLOPE ON THE RATON SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE 2
DIVIDES...PALMER AND RATON. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS WILL
ALLOW WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS TO BLOW AROUND EFFICIENTLY...AND HAVE
OPTED TO THROW OUT A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL
PASO...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...AND OTERO COUNTIES. AFTER 20Z...SHOULD
SEE THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WIN OUT OVER
THE UPPER LIFT WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WETS.  THE
NAM HITS THESE AREAS PRETTY HARD...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE
EC...GFS...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE NAM...ALL SHOW A WINDOW OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THINK OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
GFS VALUES.  THUS HAVE PUT OUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS 8 INCHES IN
12 HOURS COULD BE DOABLE FOR THESE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...OUT
WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN.
CURRENT PACKAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS IS THE BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF PUEBLO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

COMPLEX METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF MY LONGER TERM(I.E. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING) AS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

IN THE SPIRIT OF KEEPING THIS LONGER TERM DISCUSSION RELATIVELY
BRIEF...IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 TO BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z MONDAY WITH VARIOUS BEGINNING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 84/87 AND 88 AND UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE 94
WITH STARTING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO HOISTED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONE 99
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 18Z MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RELATIVELY
INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT 18Z
SUNDAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ROTATING ACROSS/INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.

THIS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEREBY
PROMPTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NUMEROUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THAT
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT WILL CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 09Z...AND BECOME GUSTY
AFTER 12Z-15Z.  STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH SUNDAY.  SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH PLACES...WITH A QUICK BLAST OF SNOW
AND BLSN...AND IFR CONDITIONS.  IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
19-20Z THEN BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT
KCOS AND KPUB WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AND WILL COME IN A SHORT
BURST DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KALS WILL SEE -SHSN DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...THOUGH THE BEST SHOT WITH MVFR CIGS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-
079-080.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ081-
082.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY

000
FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODELS STILL GIVING A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HAD ALL
ALONG. PROBLEM IS...THE EXTENT OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
VARIES...AS DOES THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO OK/TX ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE
MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION IN THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN
OK BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CENTERED AROUND KLBB. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...NAM HAS MUCH HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE REGION THAN DOES
GFS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING THE FIRST DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN THE 2ND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...GIVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS A MISS. WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND UPSLOPE ON THE RATON SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE 2
DIVIDES...PALMER AND RATON. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS WILL
ALLOW WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS TO BLOW AROUND EFFICIENTLY...AND HAVE
OPTED TO THROW OUT A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL
PASO...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...AND OTERO COUNTIES. AFTER 20Z...SHOULD
SEE THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WIN OUT OVER
THE UPPER LIFT WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WETS.  THE
NAM HITS THESE AREAS PRETTY HARD...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE
EC...GFS...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE NAM...ALL SHOW A WINDOW OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THINK OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
GFS VALUES.  THUS HAVE PUT OUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS 8 INCHES IN
12 HOURS COULD BE DOABLE FOR THESE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...OUT
WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN.
CURRENT PACKAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS IS THE BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF PUEBLO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN.  -KT


.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

COMPLEX METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF MY LONGER TERM(I.E. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING) AS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

IN THE SPIRIT OF KEEPING THIS LONGER TERM DISCUSSION RELATIVELY
BRIEF...IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 TO BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z MONDAY WITH VARIOUS BEGINNING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 84/87 AND 88 AND UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE 94
WITH STARTING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO HOISTED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONE 99
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 18Z MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RELATIVELY
INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT 18Z
SUNDAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ROTATING ACROSS/INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.

THIS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEREBY
PROMPTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NUMEROUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THAT
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT WILL CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 09Z...AND BECOME GUSTY
AFTER 12Z-15Z.  STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH SUNDAY.  SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH PLACES...WITH A QUICK BLAST OF SNOW
AND BLSN...AND IFR CONDITIONS.  IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
19-20Z THEN BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT
KCOS AND KPUB WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AND WILL COME IN A SHORT
BURST DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KALS WILL SEE -SHSN DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...THOUGH THE BEST SHOT WITH MVFR CIGS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-
079-080.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ081-
082.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

31/77

000
FXUS65 KPUB 232315
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODELS STILL GIVING A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HAD ALL
ALONG. PROBLEM IS...THE EXTENT OF UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
VARIES...AS DOES THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO OK/TX ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE
MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION IN THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN
OK BY 12Z MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CENTERED AROUND KLBB. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...NAM HAS MUCH HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE REGION THAN DOES
GFS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING THE FIRST DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN THE 2ND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...GIVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS A MISS. WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND UPSLOPE ON THE RATON SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE 2
DIVIDES...PALMER AND RATON. THUS HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALTHOUGH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
BLASTS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS WILL
ALLOW WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS TO BLOW AROUND EFFICIENTLY...AND HAVE
OPTED TO THROW OUT A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL
PASO...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...AND OTERO COUNTIES. AFTER 20Z...SHOULD
SEE THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WIN OUT OVER
THE UPPER LIFT WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...THOUGH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WETS.  THE
NAM HITS THESE AREAS PRETTY HARD...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE
EC...GFS...CANADIAN...AND EVEN THE NAM...ALL SHOW A WINDOW OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THINK OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
GFS VALUES.  THUS HAVE PUT OUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS 8 INCHES IN
12 HOURS COULD BE DOABLE FOR THESE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...OUT
WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN.
CURRENT PACKAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS IS THE BEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF ALL
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

NOT TO LEAVE OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF PUEBLO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN.  -KT


.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

COMPLEX METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF MY LONGER TERM(I.E. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING) AS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

IN THE SPIRIT OF KEEPING THIS LONGER TERM DISCUSSION RELATIVELY
BRIEF...IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 72/73/74/75/79/80/81 AND 82 TO BE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z MONDAY WITH VARIOUS BEGINNING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ALSO...A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 84/87 AND 88 AND UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE 94
WITH STARTING TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO HOISTED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONE 99
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z TO 18Z MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RELATIVELY
INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT 18Z
SUNDAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ROTATING ACROSS/INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.

THIS DYNAMIC METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEREBY
PROMPTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NUMEROUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THAT
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW(ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS) FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT WILL CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 09Z...AND BECOME GUSTY
AFTER 12Z-15Z.  STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH SUNDAY.  SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH PLACES...WITH A QUICK BLAST OF SNOW
AND BLSN...AND IFR CONDITIONS.  IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
19-20Z THEN BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT
KCOS AND KPUB WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AND WILL COME IN A SHORT
BURST DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KALS WILL SEE -SHSN DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...THOUGH THE BEST SHOT WITH MVFR CIGS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ085-
086-089-093.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ072-
079-080.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ074.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ081-
082.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

31/77

000
FXUS65 KBOU 232230
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM....CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE 12Z NAM...GFS...GEM AND EVEN WRF HAVE SHOWN
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN AREAS OF BEST LIFT AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF STILL MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT AND
PREFERRED SOLUTION BUT AT THE SAME TIME HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO MORE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NCEP FORECASTERS
WITH ACCESS TO 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOTED THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EVEN REGARDED THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT Q-G
HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC INDICATES THE OPERATION ECMWF
SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. THE ONLY ARGUMENT WOULD BE IF A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PERHAPS RELATED TO LARGER LATENT HEAT RELEASE
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
STILL LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT ALSO INCORPORATED A
BIT OF THE MESOSCALE/SREF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW
EVENT. THEY INCLUDE...NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES...AVERAGE OF
25-30 KTS OF NNE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP UPSLOPE COMPONENT WELL ABOVE
MOUNTAIN TOP...GOOD MICROPHYSICS WITH LARGE OMEGA THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...AND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE UPGRADE OF BLIZZARD WATCHES
TO WARNING...WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AND
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE OVERALL BLENDING USING A MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MESOSCALE/SREF MODELS SUPPORT THE FOLLOWING
AMOUNTS...6-10 INCHES FOR DENVER/BOULDER AREA...8-12 INCHES PALMER
DIVIDE...7-14 INCHES FOOTHILLS...AND 4-8 INCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN
WELD...MORGAN...TOWARD WASHINGTON/LINCOLN COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...THE BRUNT OF SUNDAY`S STORM SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE
TO ENDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 25/00Z. THERE
WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING BUT THAT WILL FLUSH OUT TOWARDS MORNING.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS OVER MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE EVENING BUT THESE TOO WILL
SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. ONLY A QUICK BREAK IN THINGS AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
EVENT BUT ENOUGH QG LIFT BLEEDS OVER THE HILLS TO BRING A THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...AGAIN BEING
MAINLY A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD
APPROACH NORMAL TOWARD WEEK`S AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS
WINTER STORM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. ONSET TIMING OF THIS IS
STILL RATHER DIFFICULT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z-11Z WHEN SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 1
INCH PER. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
KDEN WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR
VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE HEAVIEST SNOW 11Z-20Z...THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ048-
050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ035-036-039-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ038-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ041-045.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ046-047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 232230
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM....CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE 12Z NAM...GFS...GEM AND EVEN WRF HAVE SHOWN
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN AREAS OF BEST LIFT AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF STILL MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT AND
PREFERRED SOLUTION BUT AT THE SAME TIME HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO MORE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NCEP FORECASTERS
WITH ACCESS TO 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOTED THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EVEN REGARDED THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT Q-G
HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC INDICATES THE OPERATION ECMWF
SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. THE ONLY ARGUMENT WOULD BE IF A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PERHAPS RELATED TO LARGER LATENT HEAT RELEASE
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
STILL LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT ALSO INCORPORATED A
BIT OF THE MESOSCALE/SREF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW
EVENT. THEY INCLUDE...NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES...AVERAGE OF
25-30 KTS OF NNE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP UPSLOPE COMPONENT WELL ABOVE
MOUNTAIN TOP...GOOD MICROPHYSICS WITH LARGE OMEGA THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...AND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE UPGRADE OF BLIZZARD WATCHES
TO WARNING...WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AND
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE OVERALL BLENDING USING A MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MESOSCALE/SREF MODELS SUPPORT THE FOLLOWING
AMOUNTS...6-10 INCHES FOR DENVER/BOULDER AREA...8-12 INCHES PALMER
DIVIDE...7-14 INCHES FOOTHILLS...AND 4-8 INCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN
WELD...MORGAN...TOWARD WASHINGTON/LINCOLN COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...THE BRUNT OF SUNDAY`S STORM SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE
TO ENDING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 25/00Z. THERE
WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING BUT THAT WILL FLUSH OUT TOWARDS MORNING.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS OVER MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE EVENING BUT THESE TOO WILL
SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. ONLY A QUICK BREAK IN THINGS AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
EVENT BUT ENOUGH QG LIFT BLEEDS OVER THE HILLS TO BRING A THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...AGAIN BEING
MAINLY A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD
APPROACH NORMAL TOWARD WEEK`S AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME WINDY PERIODS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS
WINTER STORM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. ONSET TIMING OF THIS IS
STILL RATHER DIFFICULT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z-11Z WHEN SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 1
INCH PER. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
KDEN WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR
VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE HEAVIEST SNOW 11Z-20Z...THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ048-
050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ035-036-039-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ038-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ041-045.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ046-047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KGJT 232158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
258 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE NEXT STORM APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK AS IT PLOWS THROUGH UTAH AND
BEGINS ITS FAST TREK ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THIS
EVENING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH COOLING SHOWER TOPS CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL UT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF KVEL AT 2 PM AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KGJT AROUND 4
PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE PRECIP BAND TAKING
LONGER TO CLEAR SE UT AND SW CO TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEN THE STORM
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ONE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
CHARACTER THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS UP AND ADDED ADVISORIES FOR SOME
WESTERN CO VALLEYS THRU NOON SUNDAY...ZONE 8 THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ZONE 11 AROUND MONTROSE AND PAONIA...AND ZONE 14 NEAR
GUNNISON. THESE OUGHT TO SEE THE PRECIP START AS SNOW FROM A
SLIGHTLY LATER START ALLOWING THE 3 PLUS INCHES NEEDED TO
ACCUMULATE FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR
THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK/SAWATCH MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE 500 MB LOW AS IT STALLS TOMORROW OVER NE NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP THE SNOW FALLING OVER THESE ZONES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO
ALLOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO ERODE TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

BUT...THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SWEEP THIS UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS NE UT/NW CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SNOW INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE  TROUGH. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE 700-300 MB Q-G VERTICAL
VELOCITY BULLSEYE ACROSS WRN CO ABOUT 12Z TUE MORNING. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING BUT TRACK THE Q-G CENTER
MORE ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO. UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION
SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED...BUT MOST MTN RANGES
STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

AFTER A DOWN DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST SLIDES
INLAND NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE SUCCESSION OF DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

ALL TAFS SITES AND MOST AIRPORTS ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN WILL
ALL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. KGJT AND KVEL WILL SEE THE
EARLIEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AT KEGE AND KASE.

CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THROUGH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN THE CO CENTRAL AND SW MTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAPORING OFF IN THE EVENING. MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003-017-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ008-011-014.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 232158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
258 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE NEXT STORM APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK AS IT PLOWS THROUGH UTAH AND
BEGINS ITS FAST TREK ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THIS
EVENING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH COOLING SHOWER TOPS CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL UT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF KVEL AT 2 PM AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KGJT AROUND 4
PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE PRECIP BAND TAKING
LONGER TO CLEAR SE UT AND SW CO TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEN THE STORM
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ONE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
CHARACTER THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS UP AND ADDED ADVISORIES FOR SOME
WESTERN CO VALLEYS THRU NOON SUNDAY...ZONE 8 THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...ZONE 11 AROUND MONTROSE AND PAONIA...AND ZONE 14 NEAR
GUNNISON. THESE OUGHT TO SEE THE PRECIP START AS SNOW FROM A
SLIGHTLY LATER START ALLOWING THE 3 PLUS INCHES NEEDED TO
ACCUMULATE FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR
THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK/SAWATCH MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE 500 MB LOW AS IT STALLS TOMORROW OVER NE NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP THE SNOW FALLING OVER THESE ZONES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO
ALLOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO ERODE TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

BUT...THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SWEEP THIS UPPER
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS NE UT/NW CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SNOW INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE  TROUGH. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE 700-300 MB Q-G VERTICAL
VELOCITY BULLSEYE ACROSS WRN CO ABOUT 12Z TUE MORNING. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING BUT TRACK THE Q-G CENTER
MORE ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO. UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION
SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED...BUT MOST MTN RANGES
STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

AFTER A DOWN DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST SLIDES
INLAND NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE SUCCESSION OF DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

ALL TAFS SITES AND MOST AIRPORTS ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. KASE...KEGE...KCAG...KHDN WILL
ALL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. KGJT AND KVEL WILL SEE THE
EARLIEST IMPROVEMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AT KEGE AND KASE.

CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THROUGH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL KEEP SNOWFALL GOING IN THE CO CENTRAL AND SW MTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAPORING OFF IN THE EVENING. MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003-017-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ008-011-014.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231758
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS FROM THE 12Z NAM...GFS...GEM AND EVEN WRF HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN AREAS OF BEST LIFT AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THAT WOULD GO AGAINST THE STILL FAVORED 00Z ECMWF TRACK...BUT
DEFINITELY CONCERNING. GFS SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR FORT COLLINS WHICH CORRESPONDINGLY RESULTS IN MORE
SNOW FARTHER NORTH INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA.
HOWEVER...ITS Q-G SIGNAL STILL FAVORS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION. CANADIAN MEANWHILE PUTS HEAVY SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...BUT MAY BE SHOWING A BIT TOO MUCH RESPONSE TO
HEAVIER PRECIP RATES AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE...ANOTHER WILDCARD.
IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-G LIFT...NEUTRAL STABILITY
PROFILE...AND STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO 30-35 KTS.
THIS AND STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ALL ADDS
UP TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER GETTING A LOOK AT ECMWF AND ITS
Q-G DIAGNOSTICS. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL FORECAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM WINTER
STORM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS IS STILL RATHER
DIFFICULT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
BY 09Z-11Z WHEN SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH PER.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z SUNDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT KDEN WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...THE 00Z/06Z NAM HAS TRENDED 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO ITS LAST TWO RUN...ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUES TO SHRINK. 00Z UKMET/CMC
ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH THAN OTHER
MODELS INDICATE. THAT SAID...ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LATE TONIGHT AS A 120-140KT JET DIVED DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH OFFERED BY THE MODELS.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY. FARTHER WEST IN THE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER MTN RIDGES
OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE THICK CLOUD BAND VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER ERN IDAHO/NRN UTAH IS TIMED TO REACH THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER IT/S THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN IDAHO/NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM WHICH HOLDS THE
MOST INTEREST. ITS HERE THAT WE FIND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON ITS CURRENT FORWARD PROGRESS...SHOULD SEE
THIS REGION OF STRONG/DEEP LAYER QG ASCENT MOVING OVER WESTERN/
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF N-CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASING THIS
EVENING WITH THIS FORCING. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THE MTNS IN AND AROUND SUMMIT
COUNTRY COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
..EXPECT TO SEE A ABRUPT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS 12Z...COULD SEE
SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE SRN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ADD THE GREATER DENVER METRO
AREA...ZONES 39/40...TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILL ZONE 36. THE WATCH WILL START AT 09Z TONIGHT.
NEXT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE FORMATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SUNDAY. THEREFORE
WILL DELAY THE START OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA UNTIL 12Z/SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AROUND THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN HOW ELONGATED THE TROF
BECOMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS
LAYERED QG FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD FORCING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED OVER SE COLORADO WHICH DOES RESULT
IN SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AM. BASED ON THE ABOVE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA TO
INCLUDE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ADDING ZONES
39..40..43..AND 44 FOR THE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS
FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN
THE START UP UNTIL 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING YET AS WIND SPEEDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 3HR
CRITERIA OF 35 MPH. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF DENVER
THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY BEFORE NEXT INCOMING TROF
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST
OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE NOW MOVING THE TROF FURTHER NORTH WHICH
WOULD BRING A LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
BE DECENT. YET ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS STORM
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT ITS AFTER
07Z TONIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER BELOW 5000 FEET AGL AND LIKELY BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AFTER 09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TOWARDS
12Z/SUNDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR
WINDS...THIS MORNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7-13KTS...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-9KT.S..IN THE EVENING NORTHEAST 5-10KTS..THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12-20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ036-039-040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231758
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND Q-G ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS FROM THE 12Z NAM...GFS...GEM AND EVEN WRF HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN AREAS OF BEST LIFT AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
THAT WOULD GO AGAINST THE STILL FAVORED 00Z ECMWF TRACK...BUT
DEFINITELY CONCERNING. GFS SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR FORT COLLINS WHICH CORRESPONDINGLY RESULTS IN MORE
SNOW FARTHER NORTH INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA.
HOWEVER...ITS Q-G SIGNAL STILL FAVORS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION. CANADIAN MEANWHILE PUTS HEAVY SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...BUT MAY BE SHOWING A BIT TOO MUCH RESPONSE TO
HEAVIER PRECIP RATES AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE...ANOTHER WILDCARD.
IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-G LIFT...NEUTRAL STABILITY
PROFILE...AND STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO 30-35 KTS.
THIS AND STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ALL ADDS
UP TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER GETTING A LOOK AT ECMWF AND ITS
Q-G DIAGNOSTICS. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL FORECAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM WINTER
STORM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS IS STILL RATHER
DIFFICULT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
BY 09Z-11Z WHEN SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH PER.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z SUNDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT KDEN WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...THE 00Z/06Z NAM HAS TRENDED 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO ITS LAST TWO RUN...ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUES TO SHRINK. 00Z UKMET/CMC
ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH THAN OTHER
MODELS INDICATE. THAT SAID...ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LATE TONIGHT AS A 120-140KT JET DIVED DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH OFFERED BY THE MODELS.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY. FARTHER WEST IN THE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER MTN RIDGES
OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE THICK CLOUD BAND VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER ERN IDAHO/NRN UTAH IS TIMED TO REACH THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER IT/S THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN IDAHO/NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM WHICH HOLDS THE
MOST INTEREST. ITS HERE THAT WE FIND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON ITS CURRENT FORWARD PROGRESS...SHOULD SEE
THIS REGION OF STRONG/DEEP LAYER QG ASCENT MOVING OVER WESTERN/
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF N-CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASING THIS
EVENING WITH THIS FORCING. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THE MTNS IN AND AROUND SUMMIT
COUNTRY COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
..EXPECT TO SEE A ABRUPT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS 12Z...COULD SEE
SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE SRN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ADD THE GREATER DENVER METRO
AREA...ZONES 39/40...TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILL ZONE 36. THE WATCH WILL START AT 09Z TONIGHT.
NEXT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE FORMATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SUNDAY. THEREFORE
WILL DELAY THE START OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA UNTIL 12Z/SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AROUND THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN HOW ELONGATED THE TROF
BECOMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS
LAYERED QG FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD FORCING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED OVER SE COLORADO WHICH DOES RESULT
IN SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AM. BASED ON THE ABOVE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA TO
INCLUDE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ADDING ZONES
39..40..43..AND 44 FOR THE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS
FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN
THE START UP UNTIL 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING YET AS WIND SPEEDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 3HR
CRITERIA OF 35 MPH. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF DENVER
THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY BEFORE NEXT INCOMING TROF
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST
OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE NOW MOVING THE TROF FURTHER NORTH WHICH
WOULD BRING A LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
BE DECENT. YET ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS STORM
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT ITS AFTER
07Z TONIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER BELOW 5000 FEET AGL AND LIKELY BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AFTER 09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TOWARDS
12Z/SUNDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR
WINDS...THIS MORNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7-13KTS...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-9KT.S..IN THE EVENING NORTHEAST 5-10KTS..THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12-20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ036-039-040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KPUB 231738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...POTENT WINTER STORM TO START AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...ONE UPPER WAVE HAD DIPPED FAR SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
WAS EXITING TO THE SE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WAS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
THE PAC NW THIS MORNING...SPREADING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG LURKING...MAINLY
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES TO THE SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACHES COLORADO TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD STARTING
RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS PREDICTING...WHICH WAS THE MORE SOUTHERLY
AND STRONGER TRACK. INHERITED VARIOUS WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS...WITH A
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD STARTING AT
21Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH FORECAST QPF OVER A MORE THAN 24 HR
PERIOD...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SLV AND TO THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN. FOR
THE PLAINS...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW AND DIVES EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS...AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT AROUND 09Z. MODELS INDICATE HEALTHY QPF
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINLY FOR
THE PALMER DVD. HOWEVER...LATEST WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT CROSSES THE PALMER DVD AT 09Z...PCPN DOES NOT
REALLY START UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...WATCHES IN PLACE FOR
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT ORIGINALLY STARTED AT 07Z
HAVE NOW BEEN DELAYED A BIT...UNTIL 12Z. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...

...ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD IS THE STORM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING BUT INTENSE SYSTEM THAT IS GOING TO HAVE ITS HIGHEST
IMPACT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF IDAHO...TRACK DOWN TO THE 4 CORNERS AND THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SE NEW MEXICO. GIVEN THIS TRACK...I AM NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP IS GOING TO AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR/E FACING SLOPES OF THE S
MTNS. INTERIOR MTNS/VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SUNDAY.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DVD REGIONS AND
RATON MESA AREAS AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW
AND WIND. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE WINDS.

TRAVEL ON I-25 ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. OVER FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BACA
COUNTY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WE WILL LIKELY NEED SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE PLAINS THAT ARE NOT IN THE
BLIZZARD HI-LITE AREA. WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40. THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10" ON THE
PALMER DVD...2-4 IN KCOS PROPER...1-2" IN PUEBLO AND 3-7" ON THE
RATON MESA. THE WETS/SANGRES WILL SEE A FOOT OR MORE....ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. THE CONTDVD REGION MAY SEE TOTALS AROUND 8=12"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FLOOR COULD SEE 1-3".

FWIW...ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE STORM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FCST TO
BE AS INTENSE...AND MOST OF ITS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE C MTN REGION. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS COULD SEE
SOME SNOW WITH THIS NEXT WX SYSTEM.

AFTER TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WE WILL DRY OUT AND TEMPS WILL START TO WARM
UP AGAIN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AFTER 09-10Z...IMPACTING KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 11-12Z.
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KTS OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND FROPA. WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...THIS SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS AND
KPUB...THOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER
THAT...CIGS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. VIS AT KCOS
COULD BE REDUCED BY BLOWING SNOW FROM FRESH SNOW COVER...SO WILL
CARRY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...AND THIS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THINK IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE
AFTER 19-20Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES...THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCOS...AND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF KPUB.  AGAIN...AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DUE TO VARIABILITY IN FORECAST MODELS.

KALS MAY SEE SOME VCSH AFTER 05Z...AND CHANCES LOOK BETTER INTO
LATE SUNDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN.
EXPECTING LESS WIND FOR THAT AREA...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COZ087-088-094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 231738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...POTENT WINTER STORM TO START AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...ONE UPPER WAVE HAD DIPPED FAR SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
WAS EXITING TO THE SE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WAS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
THE PAC NW THIS MORNING...SPREADING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG LURKING...MAINLY
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES TO THE SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACHES COLORADO TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD STARTING
RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS PREDICTING...WHICH WAS THE MORE SOUTHERLY
AND STRONGER TRACK. INHERITED VARIOUS WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS...WITH A
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD STARTING AT
21Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH FORECAST QPF OVER A MORE THAN 24 HR
PERIOD...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SLV AND TO THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN. FOR
THE PLAINS...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW AND DIVES EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS...AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT AROUND 09Z. MODELS INDICATE HEALTHY QPF
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINLY FOR
THE PALMER DVD. HOWEVER...LATEST WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT CROSSES THE PALMER DVD AT 09Z...PCPN DOES NOT
REALLY START UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...WATCHES IN PLACE FOR
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT ORIGINALLY STARTED AT 07Z
HAVE NOW BEEN DELAYED A BIT...UNTIL 12Z. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...

...ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD IS THE STORM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING BUT INTENSE SYSTEM THAT IS GOING TO HAVE ITS HIGHEST
IMPACT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF IDAHO...TRACK DOWN TO THE 4 CORNERS AND THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SE NEW MEXICO. GIVEN THIS TRACK...I AM NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP IS GOING TO AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR/E FACING SLOPES OF THE S
MTNS. INTERIOR MTNS/VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SUNDAY.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DVD REGIONS AND
RATON MESA AREAS AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW
AND WIND. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE WINDS.

TRAVEL ON I-25 ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. OVER FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BACA
COUNTY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WE WILL LIKELY NEED SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE PLAINS THAT ARE NOT IN THE
BLIZZARD HI-LITE AREA. WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40. THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10" ON THE
PALMER DVD...2-4 IN KCOS PROPER...1-2" IN PUEBLO AND 3-7" ON THE
RATON MESA. THE WETS/SANGRES WILL SEE A FOOT OR MORE....ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. THE CONTDVD REGION MAY SEE TOTALS AROUND 8=12"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FLOOR COULD SEE 1-3".

FWIW...ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE STORM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FCST TO
BE AS INTENSE...AND MOST OF ITS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE C MTN REGION. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS COULD SEE
SOME SNOW WITH THIS NEXT WX SYSTEM.

AFTER TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WE WILL DRY OUT AND TEMPS WILL START TO WARM
UP AGAIN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AFTER 09-10Z...IMPACTING KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 11-12Z.
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KTS OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND FROPA. WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...THIS SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS AND
KPUB...THOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER
THAT...CIGS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. VIS AT KCOS
COULD BE REDUCED BY BLOWING SNOW FROM FRESH SNOW COVER...SO WILL
CARRY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...AND THIS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THINK IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE
AFTER 19-20Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES...THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCOS...AND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF KPUB.  AGAIN...AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DUE TO VARIABILITY IN FORECAST MODELS.

KALS MAY SEE SOME VCSH AFTER 05Z...AND CHANCES LOOK BETTER INTO
LATE SUNDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH -SHSN.
EXPECTING LESS WIND FOR THAT AREA...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COZ087-088-094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT

000
FXUS65 KGJT 231707
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1007 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE BOOKCLIFFS WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK OF A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIPATION AND THE GUTS OF THIS NEXT STORM MOVE OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE INTENSE BRIEF
BURSTS OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING TO A NW
OROGRAPHICS AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIP EVENT OVER NIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF TODAY OVER NW
CO AND NE UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

SNOW HAS CONTINUED AT MT WARNER IN THE PARK RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FEEL THIS IS GENERALLY LOCALIZED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT THIS AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE
OTHER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THIS UPCOMING STORM APPROACHES.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LAST EVENING AND HAS SPREAD INTO ID EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS STORM PROMISES TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ACTIVITY RAMPING UP BY THE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN UT AND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...
THE UPPER JET NOSES INTO WESTERN CO BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AIDING THE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHICS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT
LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OR AND ID.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN IN SOME
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. BY MID EVENING
ALL SHOWERS WILL BE SNOW.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS. THE 500 MB LOW WILL DROP ALONG
THE UT/CO BORDER FROM THE WY BORDER AT 06Z SUN...TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A -30 COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT
FIRST AROUND THE WESTERN...THEN SOUTHERN BORDERS JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS PHASE OF THE STORM...THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FACING SLOPES WILL BECOME FAVORED. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
THE WINTER ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THE HIGHER VALLEYS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. BUT FOR NOW THERE STILL IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THEN
DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

COLD AND UNSETTLED CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FRIGID...SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND AT OR BELOW
ZEROF IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING RIDGE AXIS PASSES MONDAY FOR A
BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THE NEXT OPEN NW PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE BEST FORCING AND COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO STRENGTHEN
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE RAISED MTN POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIGHT. HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MTNS WHERE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN AT
-12C FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. THIS SYSTEM ALSO REINFORCES
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
LATE TUESDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE FINAL WEAKER PACIFIC NW TROUGH PASSES ON THURSDAY...AGAIN
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH LIGHT SNOW. WITH CONSISTENT MODEL
TIMING...ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT EXPECT SUB ADVISORY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY THE PATTERN CHANGES AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
SOAR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

AREAS OF MVR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SPREAD ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO
WITH THE INITIAL BAND OF CLOUD AND PRECIP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
KVEL...KCAG...KHDN...KSBS AND KEEO THRU ABOUT 20Z...FOLLOWED BY A
BREAK UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE WIDE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OVERHEAD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS K4BL...
KTEX AND KGUC...AND ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIFR AT
KASE AND KEGE FROM ABOUT 23Z TO 06Z. LCL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
OCCUR IN ALL THE MTS WITH WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATION THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ005-010-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003-009-
     012-017-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 231707
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1007 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE BOOKCLIFFS WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK OF A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIPATION AND THE GUTS OF THIS NEXT STORM MOVE OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE INTENSE BRIEF
BURSTS OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING TO A NW
OROGRAPHICS AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIP EVENT OVER NIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF TODAY OVER NW
CO AND NE UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

SNOW HAS CONTINUED AT MT WARNER IN THE PARK RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FEEL THIS IS GENERALLY LOCALIZED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT THIS AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE
OTHER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THIS UPCOMING STORM APPROACHES.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LAST EVENING AND HAS SPREAD INTO ID EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS STORM PROMISES TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ACTIVITY RAMPING UP BY THE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN UT AND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...
THE UPPER JET NOSES INTO WESTERN CO BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AIDING THE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHICS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT
LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OR AND ID.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN IN SOME
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. BY MID EVENING
ALL SHOWERS WILL BE SNOW.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS. THE 500 MB LOW WILL DROP ALONG
THE UT/CO BORDER FROM THE WY BORDER AT 06Z SUN...TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A -30 COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT
FIRST AROUND THE WESTERN...THEN SOUTHERN BORDERS JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS PHASE OF THE STORM...THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FACING SLOPES WILL BECOME FAVORED. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
THE WINTER ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THE HIGHER VALLEYS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. BUT FOR NOW THERE STILL IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THEN
DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

COLD AND UNSETTLED CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FRIGID...SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND AT OR BELOW
ZEROF IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING RIDGE AXIS PASSES MONDAY FOR A
BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THE NEXT OPEN NW PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE BEST FORCING AND COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO STRENGTHEN
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE RAISED MTN POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIGHT. HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MTNS WHERE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN AT
-12C FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. THIS SYSTEM ALSO REINFORCES
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
LATE TUESDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE FINAL WEAKER PACIFIC NW TROUGH PASSES ON THURSDAY...AGAIN
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH LIGHT SNOW. WITH CONSISTENT MODEL
TIMING...ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT EXPECT SUB ADVISORY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY THE PATTERN CHANGES AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
SOAR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

AREAS OF MVR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SPREAD ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO
WITH THE INITIAL BAND OF CLOUD AND PRECIP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
KVEL...KCAG...KHDN...KSBS AND KEEO THRU ABOUT 20Z...FOLLOWED BY A
BREAK UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE WIDE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OVERHEAD EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS K4BL...
KTEX AND KGUC...AND ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIFR AT
KASE AND KEGE FROM ABOUT 23Z TO 06Z. LCL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
OCCUR IN ALL THE MTS WITH WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATION THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ005-010-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003-009-
     012-017-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231252 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

CORRECTION TO WORDING 2ND PARAGRAPH

.SHORT TERM...THE 00Z/06Z NAM HAS TRENDED 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO ITS LAST TWO RUN...ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUES TO SHRINK. 00Z UKMET/CMC
ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH THAN OTHER
MODELS INDICATE. THAT SAID...ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LATE TONIGHT AS A 120-140KT JET DIVED DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH OFFERED BY THE MODELS.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY. FARTHER WEST IN THE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER MTN RIDGES
OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE THICK CLOUD BAND VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER ERN IDAHO/NRN UTAH IS TIMED TO REACH THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER IT/S THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN IDAHO/NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM WHICH HOLDS THE
MOST INTEREST. ITS HERE THAT WE FIND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON ITS CURRENT FORWARD PROGRESS...SHOULD SEE
THIS REGION OF STRONG/DEEP LAYER QG ASCENT MOVING OVER WESTERN/
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF N-CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASING THIS
EVENING WITH THIS FORCING. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THE MTNS IN AND AROUND SUMMIT
COUNTRY COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
...EXPECT TO SEE A ABRUPT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS 12Z...COULD SEE
SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE SRN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ADD THE GREATER DENVER METRO
AREA...ZONES 39/40...TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILL ZONE 36. THE WATCH WILL START AT 09Z TONIGHT.
NEXT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE FORMATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SUNDAY. THEREFORE
WILL DELAY THE START OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA UNTIL 12Z/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AROUND THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN HOW ELONGATED THE TROF
BECOMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS
LAYERED QG FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD FORCING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED OVER SE COLORADO WHICH DOES RESULT
IN SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AM. BASED ON THE ABOVE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA TO
INCLUDE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ADDING ZONES
39..40..43..AND 44 FOR THE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS
FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN
THE START UP UNTIL 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING YET AS WIND SPEEDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 3HR
CRITERIA OF 35 MPH. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF DENVER
THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY BEFORE NEXT INCOMING TROF
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST
OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE NOW MOVING THE TROF FURTHER NORTH WHICH
WOULD BRING A LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
BE DECENT. YET ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS STORM
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT ITS AFTER
07Z TONIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER BELOW 5000 FEET AGL AND LIKELY BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AFTER 09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TOWARDS
12Z/SUNDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR
WINDS...THIS MORNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7-13KTS...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-9KT.S..IN THE EVENING NORTHEAST 5-10KTS..THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12-20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ036-039-040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231252 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

CORRECTION TO WORDING 2ND PARAGRAPH

.SHORT TERM...THE 00Z/06Z NAM HAS TRENDED 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO ITS LAST TWO RUN...ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUES TO SHRINK. 00Z UKMET/CMC
ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH THAN OTHER
MODELS INDICATE. THAT SAID...ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LATE TONIGHT AS A 120-140KT JET DIVED DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH OFFERED BY THE MODELS.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY. FARTHER WEST IN THE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER MTN RIDGES
OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE THICK CLOUD BAND VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER ERN IDAHO/NRN UTAH IS TIMED TO REACH THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER IT/S THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN IDAHO/NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM WHICH HOLDS THE
MOST INTEREST. ITS HERE THAT WE FIND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON ITS CURRENT FORWARD PROGRESS...SHOULD SEE
THIS REGION OF STRONG/DEEP LAYER QG ASCENT MOVING OVER WESTERN/
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF N-CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASING THIS
EVENING WITH THIS FORCING. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THE MTNS IN AND AROUND SUMMIT
COUNTRY COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
...EXPECT TO SEE A ABRUPT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS 12Z...COULD SEE
SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE SRN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ADD THE GREATER DENVER METRO
AREA...ZONES 39/40...TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILL ZONE 36. THE WATCH WILL START AT 09Z TONIGHT.
NEXT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE FORMATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SUNDAY. THEREFORE
WILL DELAY THE START OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA UNTIL 12Z/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AROUND THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN HOW ELONGATED THE TROF
BECOMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS
LAYERED QG FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD FORCING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED OVER SE COLORADO WHICH DOES RESULT
IN SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AM. BASED ON THE ABOVE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA TO
INCLUDE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ADDING ZONES
39..40..43..AND 44 FOR THE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS
FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN
THE START UP UNTIL 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING YET AS WIND SPEEDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 3HR
CRITERIA OF 35 MPH. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF DENVER
THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY BEFORE NEXT INCOMING TROF
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST
OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE NOW MOVING THE TROF FURTHER NORTH WHICH
WOULD BRING A LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
BE DECENT. YET ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS STORM
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT ITS AFTER
07Z TONIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER BELOW 5000 FEET AGL AND LIKELY BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AFTER 09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TOWARDS
12Z/SUNDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR
WINDS...THIS MORNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7-13KTS...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-9KT.S..IN THE EVENING NORTHEAST 5-10KTS..THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12-20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ036-039-040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

000
FXUS65 KGJT 231153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

SNOW HAS CONTINUED AT MT WARNER IN THE PARK RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FEEL THIS IS GENERALLY LOCALIZED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT THIS AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE
OTHER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THIS UPCOMING STORM APPROACHES.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LAST EVENING AND HAS SPREAD INTO ID EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS STORM PROMISES TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ACTIVITY RAMPING UP BY THE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN UT AND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...
THE UPPER JET NOSES INTO WESTERN CO BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AIDING THE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHICS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT
LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OR AND ID.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN IN SOME
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. BY MID EVENING
ALL SHOWERS WILL BE SNOW.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS. THE 500 MB LOW WILL DROP ALONG
THE UT/CO BORDER FROM THE WY BORDER AT 06Z SUN...TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A -30 COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT
FIRST AROUND THE WESTERN...THEN SOUTHERN BORDERS JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS PHASE OF THE STORM...THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FACING SLOPES WILL BECOME FAVORED. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
THE WINTER ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THE HIGHER VALLEYS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. BUT FOR NOW THERE STILL IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THEN
DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

COLD AND UNSETTLED CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FRIGID...SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND AT OR BELOW
ZEROF IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING RIDGE AXIS PASSES MONDAY FOR A
BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THE NEXT OPEN NW PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE BEST FORCING AND COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO STRENGTHEN
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE RAISED MTN POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIGHT. HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MTNS WHERE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN AT
-12C FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. THIS SYSTEM ALSO REINFORCES
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
LATE TUESDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE FINAL WEAKER PACIFIC NW TROUGH PASSES ON THURSDAY...AGAIN
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH LIGHT SNOW. WITH CONSISTENT MODEL
TIMING...ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT EXPECT SUB ADVISORY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY THE PATTERN CHANGES AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
SOAR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING.
-SHSN WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MTNS AFTER 18Z OBSCURING MTN TOPS AT TIMES. SW WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z CREATING MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WITH STRONG TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER KVEL AROUND 21Z...THEN
TO A LINE FROM KCAG TO KCNY AT 00Z THEN TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
BY 04Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT KCAG KHDN KSBS KEEO KEGE KASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG
NORTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     COZ005-010-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR
     COZ002-003-009-012-017-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE

000
FXUS65 KGJT 231153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

SNOW HAS CONTINUED AT MT WARNER IN THE PARK RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FEEL THIS IS GENERALLY LOCALIZED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT THIS AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE
OTHER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THIS UPCOMING STORM APPROACHES.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LAST EVENING AND HAS SPREAD INTO ID EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS STORM PROMISES TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ACTIVITY RAMPING UP BY THE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN UT AND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...
THE UPPER JET NOSES INTO WESTERN CO BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AIDING THE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHICS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT
LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OR AND ID.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN IN SOME
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. BY MID EVENING
ALL SHOWERS WILL BE SNOW.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS. THE 500 MB LOW WILL DROP ALONG
THE UT/CO BORDER FROM THE WY BORDER AT 06Z SUN...TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A -30 COLD POOL ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT
FIRST AROUND THE WESTERN...THEN SOUTHERN BORDERS JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS PHASE OF THE STORM...THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FACING SLOPES WILL BECOME FAVORED. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DIVIDE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
THE WINTER ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THE HIGHER VALLEYS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. BUT FOR NOW THERE STILL IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THEN
DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

COLD AND UNSETTLED CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FRIGID...SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND AT OR BELOW
ZEROF IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING RIDGE AXIS PASSES MONDAY FOR A
BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THE NEXT OPEN NW PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE BEST FORCING AND COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO STRENGTHEN
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE RAISED MTN POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIGHT. HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MTNS WHERE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN AT
-12C FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. THIS SYSTEM ALSO REINFORCES
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
LATE TUESDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE FINAL WEAKER PACIFIC NW TROUGH PASSES ON THURSDAY...AGAIN
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH LIGHT SNOW. WITH CONSISTENT MODEL
TIMING...ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT EXPECT SUB ADVISORY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY THE PATTERN CHANGES AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
SOAR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING.
-SHSN WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MTNS AFTER 18Z OBSCURING MTN TOPS AT TIMES. SW WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z CREATING MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WITH STRONG TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER KVEL AROUND 21Z...THEN
TO A LINE FROM KCAG TO KCNY AT 00Z THEN TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
BY 04Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT KCAG KHDN KSBS KEEO KEGE KASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG
NORTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     COZ005-010-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR
     COZ002-003-009-012-017-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231122
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE 00Z/06Z NAM HAS TRENDED 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKY MTN REGION...BUT CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. WHEREAS THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO
ITS LAST TWO RUN...WITH THE SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUING TO SHRINK. 00Z UKMET/CMC A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER
MODELS. THAT SAID...ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
CARVING OUT AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE TONIGHT WITH A 120-140KTS JET DIVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH OFFERED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF WAVE
CLOUDS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER WEST LOWER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THICK CLOUD BAND
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE LOOPS NOW PASSING OVER ERN IDAHO/NRN UTAH TIMED
TO REACH THE FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT/S
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO/
NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM WHICH HOLDS THE MOST INTEREST. ITS HERE WE FIND
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON ITS CURRENT
FORWARD PROGRESS...SHOULD SEE THIS REGION OF STRONG/DEEP LAYER QG
ASCENT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
REACHING CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS AND
HIGH VALLEYS OF N-CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THIS
FORCING CLOSING IN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE THE NEED
FOR ANY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THE MTNS IN AND AROUND SUMMIT COUNTRY COULD
PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT SEWRD ACROSS THE PLAINS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. ITS ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY BE MARKED BY A SHARP
INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
TOWARDS 12Z...COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR IN
THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...SRN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO
AREA AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ADD THE
GREATER DENVER METRO AREA...ZONES 39/40...TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH
ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILL ZONE 36. THE WATCH WILL
START AT 09Z TONIGHT. NEXT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER
12Z/SUNDAY. THEREFORE WILL DELAY THE START OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH
FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA UNTIL 12Z/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AROUND THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN HOW ELONGATED THE TROF
BECOMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS
LAYERED QG FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD FORCING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED OVER SE COLORADO WHICH DOES RESULT
IN SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AM. BASED ON THE ABOVE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA TO
INCLUDE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ADDING ZONES
39..40..43..AND 44 FOR THE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS
FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN
THE START UP UNTIL 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING YET AS WIND SPEEDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 3HR
CRITERIA OF 35 MPH. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF DENVER
THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY BEFORE NEXT INCOMING TROF
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST
OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE NOW MOVING THE TROF FURTHER NORTH WHICH
WOULD BRING A LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
BE DECENT. YET ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS STORM
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDSTO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT ITS AFTER
07Z TONIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER BELOW 5000 FEET AGL AND LIKELY BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AFTER 09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TOWARDS
12Z/SUNDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR
WINDS...THIS MORNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7-13KTS...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-9KT.S..IN THE EVENING NORTHEAST 5-10KTS..THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12-20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ036-039-040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231122
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE 00Z/06Z NAM HAS TRENDED 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKY MTN REGION...BUT CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. WHEREAS THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO
ITS LAST TWO RUN...WITH THE SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUING TO SHRINK. 00Z UKMET/CMC A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER
MODELS. THAT SAID...ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
CARVING OUT AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE TONIGHT WITH A 120-140KTS JET DIVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWER FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH OFFERED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF WAVE
CLOUDS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER WEST LOWER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THICK CLOUD BAND
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE LOOPS NOW PASSING OVER ERN IDAHO/NRN UTAH TIMED
TO REACH THE FCST AREA BY LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT/S
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO/
NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM WHICH HOLDS THE MOST INTEREST. ITS HERE WE FIND
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON ITS CURRENT
FORWARD PROGRESS...SHOULD SEE THIS REGION OF STRONG/DEEP LAYER QG
ASCENT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
REACHING CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS AND
HIGH VALLEYS OF N-CENTRAL COLORADO INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THIS
FORCING CLOSING IN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE THE NEED
FOR ANY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THE MTNS IN AND AROUND SUMMIT COUNTRY COULD
PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT SEWRD ACROSS THE PLAINS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. ITS ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY BE MARKED BY A SHARP
INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
TOWARDS 12Z...COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR IN
THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...SRN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO
AREA AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. FOR THAT REASON...WILL ADD THE
GREATER DENVER METRO AREA...ZONES 39/40...TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH
ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILL ZONE 36. THE WATCH WILL
START AT 09Z TONIGHT. NEXT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER
12Z/SUNDAY. THEREFORE WILL DELAY THE START OF THE BLIZZARD WATCH
FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA UNTIL 12Z/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AROUND THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
TRACK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN HOW ELONGATED THE TROF
BECOMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS
LAYERED QG FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD FORCING BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED OVER SE COLORADO WHICH DOES RESULT
IN SOME DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AM. BASED ON THE ABOVE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA TO
INCLUDE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ADDING ZONES
39..40..43..AND 44 FOR THE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS
FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN
THE START UP UNTIL 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING YET AS WIND SPEEDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 3HR
CRITERIA OF 35 MPH. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF DENVER
THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY BEFORE NEXT INCOMING TROF
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST
OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE NOW MOVING THE TROF FURTHER NORTH WHICH
WOULD BRING A LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
BE DECENT. YET ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS STORM
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDSTO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BUT ITS AFTER
07Z TONIGHT WHEN CIGS LOWER BELOW 5000 FEET AGL AND LIKELY BELOW
3000 FEET AGL AFTER 09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. TOWARDS
12Z/SUNDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR
WINDS...THIS MORNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7-13KTS...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-9KT.S..IN THE EVENING NORTHEAST 5-10KTS..THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12-20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ036-039-040-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER

000
FXUS65 KPUB 231045
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
345 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...POTENT WINTER STORM TO START AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...ONE UPPER WAVE HAD DIPPED FAR SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
WAS EXITING TO THE SE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WAS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
THE PAC NW THIS MORNING...SPREADING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG LURKING...MAINLY
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES TO THE SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACHES COLORADO TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD STARTING
RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS PREDICTING...WHICH WAS THE MORE SOUTHERLY
AND STRONGER TRACK. INHERITED VARIOUS WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS...WITH A
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD STARTING AT
21Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH FORECAST QPF OVER A MORE THAN 24 HR
PERIOD...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SLV AND TO THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN. FOR
THE PLAINS...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW AND DIVES EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS...AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT AROUND 09Z. MODELS INDICATE HEALTHY QPF
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINLY FOR
THE PALMER DVD. HOWEVER...LATEST WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT CROSSES THE PALMER DVD AT 09Z...PCPN DOES NOT
REALLY START UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...WATCHES IN PLACE FOR
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT ORIGINALLY STARTED AT 07Z
HAVE NOW BEEN DELAYED A BIT...UNTIL 12Z. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...

...ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD IS THE STORM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING BUT INTENSE SYSTEM THAT IS GOING TO HAVE ITS HIGHEST
IMPACT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF IDAHO...TRACK DOWN TO THE 4 CORNERS AND THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SE NEW MEXICO. GIVEN THIS TRACK...I AM NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP IS GOING TO AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR/E FACING SLOPES OF THE S
MTNS. INTERIOR MTNS/VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SUNDAY.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DVD REGIONS AND
RATON MESA AREAS AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW
AND WIND. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE WINDS.

TRAVEL ON I-25 ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. OVER FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BACA
COUNTY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WE WILL LIKELY NEED SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE PLAINS THAT ARE NOT IN THE
BLIZZARD HI-LITE AREA. WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40. THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10" ON THE
PALMER DVD...2-4 IN KCOS PROPER...1-2" IN PUEBLO AND 3-7" ON THE
RATON MESA. THE WETS/SANGRES WILL SEE A FOOT OR MORE....ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. THE CONTDVD REGION MAY SEE TOTALS AROUND 8=12"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FLOOR COULD SEE 1-3".

FWIW...ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE STORM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FCST TO
BE AS INTENSE...AND MOST OF ITS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE C MTN REGION. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS COULD SEE
SOME SNOW WITH THIS NEXT WX SYSTEM.

AFTER TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WE WILL DRY OUT AND TEMPS WILL START TO WARM
UP AGAIN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AFTER 00Z. DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING
NORTH AND GUSTY RIGHT AROUND 12Z SUN.

KCOS...VARIABLE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH 15Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER 00Z...AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL USHER IN STRONG NORTH WINDS 20G35KT AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COZ087-088-094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE

000
FXUS65 KPUB 231045
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
345 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...POTENT WINTER STORM TO START AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...ONE UPPER WAVE HAD DIPPED FAR SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
WAS EXITING TO THE SE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WAS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
THE PAC NW THIS MORNING...SPREADING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG LURKING...MAINLY
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES TO THE SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACHES COLORADO TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD STARTING
RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS PREDICTING...WHICH WAS THE MORE SOUTHERLY
AND STRONGER TRACK. INHERITED VARIOUS WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS...WITH A
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD STARTING AT
21Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH FORECAST QPF OVER A MORE THAN 24 HR
PERIOD...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SLV AND TO THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN. FOR
THE PLAINS...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW AND DIVES EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS...AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT AROUND 09Z. MODELS INDICATE HEALTHY QPF
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINLY FOR
THE PALMER DVD. HOWEVER...LATEST WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT CROSSES THE PALMER DVD AT 09Z...PCPN DOES NOT
REALLY START UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE...WATCHES IN PLACE FOR
TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THAT ORIGINALLY STARTED AT 07Z
HAVE NOW BEEN DELAYED A BIT...UNTIL 12Z. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...

...ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD IS THE STORM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING BUT INTENSE SYSTEM THAT IS GOING TO HAVE ITS HIGHEST
IMPACT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF IDAHO...TRACK DOWN TO THE 4 CORNERS AND THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SE NEW MEXICO. GIVEN THIS TRACK...I AM NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP IS GOING TO AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR/E FACING SLOPES OF THE S
MTNS. INTERIOR MTNS/VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SUNDAY.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR THE PALMER DVD REGIONS AND
RATON MESA AREAS AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW
AND WIND. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE WINDS.

TRAVEL ON I-25 ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. OVER FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY BACA
COUNTY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WE WILL LIKELY NEED SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE PLAINS THAT ARE NOT IN THE
BLIZZARD HI-LITE AREA. WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40. THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA MAY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10" ON THE
PALMER DVD...2-4 IN KCOS PROPER...1-2" IN PUEBLO AND 3-7" ON THE
RATON MESA. THE WETS/SANGRES WILL SEE A FOOT OR MORE....ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. THE CONTDVD REGION MAY SEE TOTALS AROUND 8=12"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FLOOR COULD SEE 1-3".

FWIW...ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE STORM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FCST TO
BE AS INTENSE...AND MOST OF ITS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE C MTN REGION. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS COULD SEE
SOME SNOW WITH THIS NEXT WX SYSTEM.

AFTER TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WE WILL DRY OUT AND TEMPS WILL START TO WARM
UP AGAIN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AFTER 00Z. DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING
NORTH AND GUSTY RIGHT AROUND 12Z SUN.

KCOS...VARIABLE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH 15Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER 00Z...AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL USHER IN STRONG NORTH WINDS 20G35KT AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COZ087-088-094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE

000
FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FEW FLURRIES ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND THE COLORADO SPRINGS
AREA...AND SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TO THE RATON MESA. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THROUGH 1AM WITH
GENERALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS
HAVE ALSO INDICATED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DID MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS...SCALING BACK
POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR THROUGH BIG HORN
SHEEP CANYON...AND SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE
INTO THE RATON MESA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONVECTIVE AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOWFALL IN THE HEAVIER
BURSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SAID SHORT WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE INDICATING ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS AT THIS TIME.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING WHICH CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. UVV
AND WEAK SFC-H7 EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS TO
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING...WITH INCREASING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WAVE. QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
LIMITS ACCUMULATIONS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...GREATEST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MTS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LONG TERM FORECASTER...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN MOSQUITO
AND EASTERN SAWATCH RANGES AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
MTS STARTING AT 21Z SAT. FURTHER EAST...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT STORM THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...THOUGH THEY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE SLOWER MORE WESTWARD TRACK TO THE SYSTEM AS IT DROPS THROUGH
UTAH INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.  DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG...AND LAPSE RATES QUITE
STEEP SO ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK DOABLE...GENERALLY INT HE
5 TO 10 INCH RANGE...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AROUND A
FOOT FOR THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

CONCERN WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING INTO ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY DAY
BREAK SUNDAY. FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MUDDLED THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD THOUGH...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WAVERING AS EACH RUN
SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST AND CUTS IT OFF SOONER AS IT
DROPS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE OPEN WAVE SUGGESTED BY THE
NAM AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT BY THE GFS ON THE 12Z RUNS...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST/SOUTH TRACK ALL
ALONG. COMING UP WITH DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A HIGHLY
EVOLVING EVENT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THAT SAID...MODELS ALL SEEM
TO POINT TO A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WIND
DRIVEN SNOW ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. FOR NOW AM GETTING
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES.
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH OR HIGHER...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THEREFORE IN
COLLABORATION WITH BOU...HAVE GONE OUT WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER
LOW WRAPS UP AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS UT INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THIS REGION AS ECMWF
HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE 18Z NAM
WHICH APPEARS TO BE CATCHING ONTO A SIMILAR SOLUTION IS PEGGING
AROUND 12 INCHES FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS. ALSO UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES WHERE WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 TO 6
INCHES LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW. STRONGEST WINDS (TO AROUND 50 MPH)
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE EAST OF I-25...SO EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

NOW FOR THE CHALLENGING PART...SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL BE A CERTAINTY ON SUNDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. ECMWF AND CANADIAN WRAP UP A NICE TROWAL WITH
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ALL ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW...CUTTING IT OFF SOONER. THE OTHER MODELS...NAM12...GFS...STILL
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL
WIN OUT WITH A MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. THIS TOO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM DOESN`T WRAP UP SOON ENOUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE NOT PUT OUT A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
OR FOR POINTS EASTWARD. NEED A COUPLE MORE RUNS AND SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY BEFORE THESE DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. THAT
SAID...GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC THIS STORM IS...EVERYONE IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DRIVEN SNOW
AND A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT ON SUNDAY.

MODELS PULL THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THIS STORM COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

KCOS...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED
LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND AROUND THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS LOWERED CIGS AND
VIS TO IFR. MODELS HAVE WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 08Z
WHICH SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

KALS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ087-088-094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY

000
FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FEW FLURRIES ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND THE COLORADO SPRINGS
AREA...AND SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TO THE RATON MESA. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THROUGH 1AM WITH
GENERALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS
HAVE ALSO INDICATED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND HAVE
ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DID MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS...SCALING BACK
POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR THROUGH BIG HORN
SHEEP CANYON...AND SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE
INTO THE RATON MESA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONVECTIVE AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOWFALL IN THE HEAVIER
BURSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SAID SHORT WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE INDICATING ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS AT THIS TIME.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING WHICH CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. UVV
AND WEAK SFC-H7 EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS TO
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING...WITH INCREASING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WAVE. QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
LIMITS ACCUMULATIONS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...GREATEST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MTS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LONG TERM FORECASTER...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN MOSQUITO
AND EASTERN SAWATCH RANGES AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
MTS STARTING AT 21Z SAT. FURTHER EAST...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT STORM THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...THOUGH THEY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE SLOWER MORE WESTWARD TRACK TO THE SYSTEM AS IT DROPS THROUGH
UTAH INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.  DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG...AND LAPSE RATES QUITE
STEEP SO ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK DOABLE...GENERALLY INT HE
5 TO 10 INCH RANGE...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AROUND A
FOOT FOR THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

CONCERN WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING INTO ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY DAY
BREAK SUNDAY. FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MUDDLED THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD THOUGH...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WAVERING AS EACH RUN
SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST AND CUTS IT OFF SOONER AS IT
DROPS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE OPEN WAVE SUGGESTED BY THE
NAM AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT BY THE GFS ON THE 12Z RUNS...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST/SOUTH TRACK ALL
ALONG. COMING UP WITH DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN A HIGHLY
EVOLVING EVENT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THAT SAID...MODELS ALL SEEM
TO POINT TO A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WIND
DRIVEN SNOW ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. FOR NOW AM GETTING
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES.
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH OR HIGHER...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THEREFORE IN
COLLABORATION WITH BOU...HAVE GONE OUT WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER
LOW WRAPS UP AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS UT INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THIS REGION AS ECMWF
HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE 18Z NAM
WHICH APPEARS TO BE CATCHING ONTO A SIMILAR SOLUTION IS PEGGING
AROUND 12 INCHES FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS. ALSO UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES WHERE WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 TO 6
INCHES LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW. STRONGEST WINDS (TO AROUND 50 MPH)
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE EAST OF I-25...SO EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

NOW FOR THE CHALLENGING PART...SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL BE A CERTAINTY ON SUNDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. ECMWF AND CANADIAN WRAP UP A NICE TROWAL WITH
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ALL ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW...CUTTING IT OFF SOONER. THE OTHER MODELS...NAM12...GFS...STILL
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL
WIN OUT WITH A MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. THIS TOO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM DOESN`T WRAP UP SOON ENOUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE NOT PUT OUT A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
OR FOR POINTS EASTWARD. NEED A COUPLE MORE RUNS AND SOME BETTER
CONSISTENCY BEFORE THESE DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. THAT
SAID...GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC THIS STORM IS...EVERYONE IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DRIVEN SNOW
AND A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT ON SUNDAY.

MODELS PULL THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THIS STORM COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

KCOS...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED
LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND AROUND THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS LOWERED CIGS AND
VIS TO IFR. MODELS HAVE WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 08Z
WHICH SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

KALS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ087-088-094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-082.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY

000
FXUS65 KGJT 230509
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1009 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH CONTINUED TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICTED
DECENT QFP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...Q-FORCING...AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT COINCIDE.

BY 00Z/SAT THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND DOWNWARD
FORCING AND STABILIZATION BEGIN. FLOW SWINGS TO THE WEST AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE FORMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN VERY STABLE LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ALL
SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK OVERRUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC STORM SWEEPS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
BRINGING THE BASE OF THE TROF TO SOUTHEAST UTAH BY 00Z/SUN. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...GOOD NEGATIVE DIV-Q AT
MID-LEVELS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OF
THE POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT
12Z SUNDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WINDS...
BECOMING NORTH LATE IN THE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS.

THIS ENERGETIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WITH 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PEAKING AROUND 2.5 G/KG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEMS REASONABLE
AND THEREFORE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NORTHWEST PLATEAU
SHOULD ALSO DO WELL IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND INCLUDED
THIS AREA AS WELL. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER AND
GUNNISON BASINS SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS PONDER WHETHER THESE SHOULD
BE INCLUDED AS WELL.

AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER SW CO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MTN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING BY MIDDAY PER Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITH AN UNSTABLE AND
MOIST DENDRITIC LAYER NEAR MTN LEVEL SHOULD KEEP SNOW OVER THE
FAVORED NW SLOPES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE RANGES...FLATTOPS...UPPER YAMPA VALLEY AND ALSO
THE NW SAN JUANS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMPAGHRE GORGE
STORM EXISTS IN THE COLD ADVECTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE BEGINS AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FAR WEST AS MODELS POINT TOWARDS A LESSENING OF STORMS TRACKING
THROUGH OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM WILL SWEEP THROUGH...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SNOW EXPANDS IN
COVERAGE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ005-010-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003-009-012-017-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 230509
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1009 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH CONTINUED TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICTED
DECENT QFP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...Q-FORCING...AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT COINCIDE.

BY 00Z/SAT THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND DOWNWARD
FORCING AND STABILIZATION BEGIN. FLOW SWINGS TO THE WEST AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE FORMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN VERY STABLE LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ALL
SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK OVERRUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC STORM SWEEPS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
BRINGING THE BASE OF THE TROF TO SOUTHEAST UTAH BY 00Z/SUN. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...GOOD NEGATIVE DIV-Q AT
MID-LEVELS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER MILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OF
THE POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT
12Z SUNDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED FAVORABLE NORTHWEST WINDS...
BECOMING NORTH LATE IN THE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS.

THIS ENERGETIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WITH 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PEAKING AROUND 2.5 G/KG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEMS REASONABLE
AND THEREFORE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NORTHWEST PLATEAU
SHOULD ALSO DO WELL IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND INCLUDED
THIS AREA AS WELL. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER AND
GUNNISON BASINS SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS PONDER WHETHER THESE SHOULD
BE INCLUDED AS WELL.

AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER SW CO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MTN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING BY MIDDAY PER Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITH AN UNSTABLE AND
MOIST DENDRITIC LAYER NEAR MTN LEVEL SHOULD KEEP SNOW OVER THE
FAVORED NW SLOPES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE RANGES...FLATTOPS...UPPER YAMPA VALLEY AND ALSO
THE NW SAN JUANS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMPAGHRE GORGE
STORM EXISTS IN THE COLD ADVECTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE BEGINS AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FAR WEST AS MODELS POINT TOWARDS A LESSENING OF STORMS TRACKING
THROUGH OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM WILL SWEEP THROUGH...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SNOW EXPANDS IN
COVERAGE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ005-010-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003-009-012-017-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC

000
FXUS65 KBOU 230438
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
938 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT...A LITTLE MORE BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THAN WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
STILL EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AND SHOWERS TO PICK
UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS PICKING UP ON THE
PLAINS...WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN MANY
PLACES. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER ON THE
SUNDAY STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT SPREADING OVER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LATEST RADAR AND WEB CAMS SHOWING LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT
AND GRAND COUNTIES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH PARK. NO ECHOES ACROSS PLAINS. TROUGH AND MID LEVEL ASCENT
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING...SO TREND FOR
DECREASING SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH
SNOW COMING TO AN END ALONG FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS PARK COUNTY. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK OROGRAPHICS.
AS FOR PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN AN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN DENVER AND THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA IN CASE
A FEW SHOWERS BUILD INTO THAT AREA...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWEST. WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS AND COMBINES
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AS FLOW IS
A BIT TOO NORTHERLY FOR AMPLIFIED WAVE. GUSTS TO 50 MPH STILL LOOK
REASONABLE FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. STILL SOME
MOISTURE OVER MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS ZONE 31. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL QG ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IMPROVING OROGRAPHICS AND INCREASING
LIFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT. ALONG FOOTHILLS AND
ACROSS PLAINS...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY WITH SNOW
COVER. NAM GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO VALUES.

LONG TERM...CONCERN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TOWARD NEXT WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS STORM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND THERE IS MUCH
BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECWMF IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL
HERE AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PROPERLY DIGGING THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DRIVES DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.  FROM THE FOUR CORNERS...THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE FAVORED ECMWF SHOW LOW LEVEL Q-G
VERTICAL VELOCITIES TURNING UPWARD BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MODERATE
MID/UPPER LEVEL Q-G VERTICAL MOTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...SFC-600 MB FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE AND STRENGTHEN TO 25-30
KTS. THE AIRMASS ALSO EXHIBITS NEARLY NEUTRAL STABILITY AND GOOD
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION. FINALLY...SURFACE WINDS
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF THE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
AT LEAST 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THOSE AREAS FAVORED BEST BY DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION INTO EASTERN ADAMS/ARAP/WASH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...
DENVER/BOULDER AREA IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD
TO HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE STORM TRACK REMAINS
UNCHANGED...LENDING ITSELF TO MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THERE IS REASONABLE POTENTIAL OF A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORM TRACK. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT OF SNOW POTENTIAL AND COMBINATIION OF
STRONG WINDS...WE WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BIG
OF A FACTOR. INTERESTING POINT IS THERE SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO
OF OLD SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO IT WONT TAKE AS MUCH SNOW TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR DENVER/BOULDER AND
POINTS NORTHWARD YET WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS GIVEN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY. THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE DENVER AREA. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT APA WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH
02Z. IF THE SNOW DEVELOPS THERE IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH NO
ACCUMULATION. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 02Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. MAY BE MORE WESTERLY AT BJC. SPEEDS AROUND 8
KTS TO PREVAIL. ON SATURDAY...WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY 16Z
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KTS. AFTER 20Z WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD

000
FXUS65 KBOU 230438
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
938 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT...A LITTLE MORE BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THAN WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
STILL EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN AND SHOWERS TO PICK
UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS PICKING UP ON THE
PLAINS...WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN MANY
PLACES. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER ON THE
SUNDAY STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM MST FRI FEB 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT SPREADING OVER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LATEST RADAR AND WEB CAMS SHOWING LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT
AND GRAND COUNTIES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH PARK. NO ECHOES ACROSS PLAINS. TROUGH AND MID LEVEL ASCENT
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING...SO TREND FOR
DECREASING SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH
SNOW COMING TO AN END ALONG FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS PARK COUNTY. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK OROGRAPHICS.
AS FOR PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN AN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN DENVER AND THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA IN CASE
A FEW SHOWERS BUILD INTO THAT AREA...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWEST. WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS AND COMBINES
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AS FLOW IS
A BIT TOO NORTHERLY FOR AMPLIFIED WAVE. GUSTS TO 50 MPH STILL LOOK
REASONABLE FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. STILL SOME
MOISTURE OVER MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS ZONE 31. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL QG ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IMPROVING OROGRAPHICS AND INCREASING
LIFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT. ALONG FOOTHILLS AND
ACROSS PLAINS...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY WITH SNOW
COVER. NAM GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO VALUES.

LONG TERM...CONCERN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TOWARD NEXT WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS STORM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND THERE IS MUCH
BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECWMF IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL
HERE AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PROPERLY DIGGING THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DRIVES DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.  FROM THE FOUR CORNERS...THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE FAVORED ECMWF SHOW LOW LEVEL Q-G
VERTICAL VELOCITIES TURNING UPWARD BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MODERATE
MID/UPPER LEVEL Q-G VERTICAL MOTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...SFC-600 MB FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE AND STRENGTHEN TO 25-30
KTS. THE AIRMASS ALSO EXHIBITS NEARLY NEUTRAL STABILITY AND GOOD
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION. FINALLY...SURFACE WINDS
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF THE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
AT LEAST 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THOSE AREAS FAVORED BEST BY DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE REGION INTO EASTERN ADAMS/ARAP/WASH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...
DENVER/BOULDER AREA IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD
TO HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE STORM TRACK REMAINS
UNCHANGED...LENDING ITSELF TO MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THERE IS REASONABLE POTENTIAL OF A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORM TRACK. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT OF SNOW POTENTIAL AND COMBINATIION OF
STRONG WINDS...WE WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BIG
OF A FACTOR. INTERESTING POINT IS THERE SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO
OF OLD SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO IT WONT TAKE AS MUCH SNOW TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR DENVER/BOULDER AND
POINTS NORTHWARD YET WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS GIVEN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY. THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE DENVER AREA. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT APA WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH
02Z. IF THE SNOW DEVELOPS THERE IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH NO
ACCUMULATION. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 02Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. MAY BE MORE WESTERLY AT BJC. SPEEDS AROUND 8
KTS TO PREVAIL. ON SATURDAY...WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY 16Z
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KTS. AFTER 20Z WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD