Conflict Analysis and Prevention

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Kenya are scheduled for March 4. United States Institute of Peace Program Officer Jacqueline Wilson, who works in USIP’s who works in USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, returned from Kenya recently after conducting several electoral violence prevention workshops with Kenyan civil society organizations. In the following Q & A, she offers her analysis of that nation’s electoral preparations and the potential for electoral violence.

“Trustable” presidential elections will be the linchpin for Afghanistan’s transition in the next two years, according to Fawzia Koofi, a member of Parliament and chairman of women’s affairs in the chamber. She told a USIP audience that Afghans feel burned by the lingering questions about the legitimacy of the last presidential elections in 2009.

In Pakistan’s struggle against violent extremism, Pakistan police officers have sacrificed their lives to save the lives of those around them. Heroic acts by the police have occurred in Peshawar, Quetta and Karachi, the cities impacted most by the spread of terrorism from the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. In Pakistan’s cities, police are responsible for confronting the threat from extremists groups.

North Korea on February 12 conducted a third nuclear test blast, drawing immediate global condemnation. USIP has several recent resources discussing the North's proliferation activities.

Three top researchers explode myths about wartime sexual violence and conclude that rape in war is neither ubiquitous nor inevitable. Variation occurs across countries, conflicts, and armed groups. The fact that some commanders are able to prohibit sexual violence suggests that prevention is possible and interventions should be aimed at the level of armed groups

USIP’s continuing series on “sleeper risks” looks at how King Abdullah is facing challenges to his legitimacy from a broader coalition of groups than the high-profile opposition from the Muslim Brotherhood. Economic protests could create a hair-trigger scenario exacerbated by frustration among the monarch’s traditional base.

Countries transitioning to democracy must change old models of organizing the police, armed services, and intelligence services, which typically were characterized by mistreatment of the public, for models that stress transparency, accountability, and citizen involvement. Yet each new government in the Middle East and North Africa must tailor its reforms carefully and patiently in order to avoid backlash among security services.

The hobbled Palestinian economy, the weakness of the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority that governs much of the West Bank and the dormancy of the peace process together may be increasing the risk of a deterioration of the conflict and an rise in violence on the West Bank in 2013. USIP’s continuing series on “sleeper risks” takes a closer look at this potentially explosive dynamic.