Notice of Changes to the CES Small Domain Model
CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a “weighted link relative” estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month’s employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.
For some employment series, relatively small sample sizes limit the reliability of the weighted link-relative estimates. In these cases, BLS uses the CES small domain model (SDM) to generate employment estimates. The SDM combines the direct sample estimates (described above) and forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease the volatility of the estimates. With the January 2013 estimates published on March 18, 2013, BLS will refine the SDM methodology to incorporate more real-time information in the model.
For more detailed information about the CES small domain model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.
Last Modified Date: January 18, 2013
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