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Kansas Water Science Center

Possible Effects of Solar Irradiance on El Niáo/La Niáa

C.A. Perry

Variations in total solar irradiance have a statistically significant relation with decadal variations in the world's sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). There also is evidence of relations between annual and interannual variations in solar irradiance and annual and interannual fluctuations in SSTs in specific regions of the Pacific Ocean. These solar-forced variations in ocean temperatures are suspected to affect Northern Hemispheric jet stream characteristics and ultimately precipitation and runoff over North America. The El Niáo/La Niáa phenomena also effects precipitation and runoff over North America, and there is evidence that variations in solar-irradiance variations may be affecting SSTs in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean.

Comparison of El Niáo/La Niáa indices (i.e., NINO1+2, NINO3, and NINO4) with annual solar-irradiance differences show no significant relations. However, when the indices are stratified according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an interesting relation emerges. When the QBO is positive (west wind), there is a significant correlation between NINO4 and solar-irradiance differences lagged 2 years (r = 0.51). Water from the Pacific Warm Pool appears to move eastward with the equatorial countercurrent warming the NINO4 region 2 years after an irradiance increase. When the QBO is megative (east wind), there is a significant correlation between NINO1+2 and the solar irradiance lagged 4 years. The pathway for this connection with the Pacific Warm Pool may be around the South Pacific Gyre and up the west coast of South America (4 years travel time). For QBO values greater than -20 meters per second, NINO3 shows a graphical relation with irradiance lagged 2 years.

Additional information on Solar Irradiance and Streamflow can be found at: http://ks.water.usgs.gov/waterdata/climate/

Perry, C.A., 2002, Possible effects of solar irradiance on El Niáo/La Niáa [abst.], in West, G.J., and Buffaloe, L.D., eds., Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Pacific Climate Workshop, March 18-21, 2001, Pacific Grove, California: Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary Technical Report 68, p. 171.

To request a paper copy of this abstract, email: cperry@.usgs.gov

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