NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification

Contents

1. Introduction
2. Forecast verification procedures
3. Annual NHC verification reports
4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
5. Official error trends
6. Model error trends
7. NHC official forecast error database
8. Performance measures and goals
9. References

9. References

Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1005-1015.

DeMaria, M., and J.M. Gross, 2003: Hurricane! Coping with Disaster, edited by Robert Simpson, Chapter 4: Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models. American Geophysical Union, ISBN 0-87590-297-9, 360p.

Jarvinen, B. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1979: Statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity for the North Atlantic basin. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10, 22 pp.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, B. Sampson, and J.M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, five-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 80-92.

Neumann, C. B., 1972: An alternate to the HURRAN (hurricane analog) tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 24 pp.

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